UFA spotlight – Jason Arnott

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All week leading up to Sunday, July 1, we’ll be profiling unrestricted free agents and speculating where they might end up.

Jason Arnott (C)

Age: 37

2011-12 cap hit: $2.875 million

The skinny:

At his age – he’ll turn 38 by the time next season begins – Jason Arnott likely won’t have a ton of offers to sift through. In fact, he might just want to root for the St. Louis Blues to follow GM Doug Armstrong’s stated plan of making limited moves.

Even so, he could get squeezed out amid the team’s continuing youth movement. The playing time he received in 2011-12 was surely augmented by the rash of injuries that struck the Blues. He responded respectably but not spectacularly, scoring 17 goals and 34 points in 72 games before only generating a goal in seven postseason contests.

Age and limited productivity will hold him back, yet you can’t totally discount his size and shot. Also, the Washington Capitals raved about Arnott’s leadership qualities in 2010-11.

Not much has been made about his league-wide appeal, but if he doesn’t get a job based on familiarity (the New Jersey Devils already brought him back once to limited results), he’ll likely make the most sense as a cheap veteran on a contender. Arnott has a solid chance of landing with someone if he’s willing to accept another one-year deal – probably for quite a bit less cash.

More UFA spotlights

Ryan Suter

Zach Parise

Jaromir Jagr

Jason Garrison

Jiri Hudler

Justin Schultz

Shane Doan

Dennis Wideman

P. A. Parenteau

Connor McDavid’s signature forged on Oilers jerseys

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EDMONTON, Alberta (AP) — A man has been charged with forging the signature of Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid on team jerseys and then selling them for big profits.

Edmonton police say the 23-year-old man in April 2018 contacted several people on Facebook, claiming he was employed by either the Edmonton Oilers Entertainment Group or Pro Am Sports, and was selling autographed McDavid jerseys.

Chandra Vinesh Singh has been charged with fraud, forging documents and false pretense.

Investigators believe he sold two items bearing bogus signatures to someone for $1,400, then defrauded another person of $23,000.

Oilers Entertainment Group executive Tim Shipton thanked fans for their support but stressed that this case is a ”good reminder for our fans to always go to trusted sources.”

PHT Morning Skate: Triple-A ball club to wear Sabres inspired jerseys; Talbot comeback?

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

• What’s up with Ivan Provorov’s contract negotiations? (Broad Street Hockey)

• Is Cam Talbot set for a bounceback season? (TSN.ca)

Keith Kinkaid’s arrival should help Canadiens manage Carey Price’s load. (Sportsnet)

• Montreal’s front office made quite a few moves this off-season, but will they pay off? (Eyes on the Prize)

• The Top 10 reasons an NHL team should trade for Milan Lucic. (Edmonton Journal)

• After adding Kessel & Soderberg, Coyotes should secure a playoff berth. (Featurd)

• A little roster juggling could do the Winnipeg Jets a lot of good next season. (Winnipeg Sun)

• Islanders add Varlamov as they try to build off an impressive season. (NHL.com)

• Buffalo Bisons baseball team to wear Sabres’ royal blue and gold for ‘Hockey Night at the Ballpark’ (WKBW Buffalo)

• Six young players who need a change of scenery. (The Hockey News)

• For all their efforts, did the Minnesota Wild gain anything from all the shuffling? (StarTribune)

• Most offer sheets get matched. Now what? (Sin.Bin Vegas)

• Hockey cards that need to be made. (Puck Junk)

• A look back, two years on, at the Mikhail Sergachev-Jonathan Druin trade. (Raw Charge)

• Chris Kelly is back with the Bruins in as a player development coordinator. (Boston Bruins)

• Former Predators captain Greg Johnson’s sucide should spark change. (Predlines)

• Blues anthem singer Charles Glenn ready for his encore. (Ladue News)

• How should the Vancouver Canucks utilize Thatcher Demko next season? (The Canuck Way)


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

Why Wild are better off being terrible next season

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When you ponder what separates the good, the bad, and the ugly in the NHL, don’t forget the importance of self-awareness.

For all of Minnesota Wild GM Paul Fenton’s lizard tongued blunders through his first year at the helm, the Wild’s biggest problem is that owner Craig Leipold is in denial about his team.

It’s been about a year since Leipold shared this message, yet all signs point to the Wild refusing to embrace a true rebuild. In ignoring their reality, the Wild only dig the hole deeper by making more mistakes, and dragging their feet on finding better answers.

Instead of getting the best of both worlds of competing and “rebuilding on the fly,” the Wild are stuck in purgatory: too bad to credibly contend, too competitive to get the picks that help teams win championships. Leipold’s paid for a contender while the Wild have slipped to the level of outright pretenders.

In catering to Leipold, both Chuck Fletcher and current GM Paul Fenton created quite a mess. The Wild’s Cap Friendly page might as well include a horror movie scream mp3 every time you load it up.

Allow this take, then: the Wild would be better off bottoming out in 2019-20, rather than battling for mediocrity.

[The Central Division might not give the Wild much of a choice.]

Changing perceptions?

Most directly, an epic Wild collapse would help them get higher draft lottery odds.

The indirect benefits are considerable, if not guaranteed. Most importantly, Leipold may finally realize that the current plan isn’t working. Failing to even be “in the mix” may also inspire the Wild to trade away certain players, and for those players to make the process easier by waiving various clauses.

  • To start, there are players who are more or less in their primes, but may slip out by the time the Wild can truly compete. Jared Spurgeon is the biggest example with his expiring contract, but it continues to make sense to shop Jason Zucker, and Jonas Brodin heads the list of other considerations.
  • If the Wild end up cellar dwelling, it might be easier to convince Mikko Koivu and Devan Dubnyk to accept trades, and perhaps even to part ways with Eric Staal. (Trading Staal would be awkward since he gave the Wild a sweetheart deal, but sometimes things have to get awkward before they get better.)
  • Via Cap Friendly, the Wild’s commitments for 2020-21 go down to $59.46M, and really open up in 2021-22 (just $37.36M to seven players). So, if the Wild are too stubborn or cowardly to trade some of the above players, Fenton could get something close to a clean slate if they merely let them walk or retire. This thought makes a Spurgeon decision especially important.

On Parise and Suter …

Speaking of money regrets, the Wild should try to get Parise and Suter off the books, even if it’s tough to imagine them actually pulling that off.

  • Honestly, if Parise went on LTIR, I’d view it as far more credible than plenty of other cases. He’s had significant back issues, and those don’t tend to go away, particularly for 34-year-olds with a lot of mileage.
  • Suter seems impossible to trade, but we’ve seen other seemingly impossible trades actually happen.
  • Maybe there’d be a hockey deus ex machina, like expansion draft creativity, or a compliance buyout?

Not the best odds, yet Fenton would be negligent if he didn’t explore many avenues to ease concerns.

Hope can come quickly

A long rebuild would be a tough sell, but maybe Fenton could sell a Rangers revamp to Leipold: going all-in for a short period of time to bring in picks, prospects, and generally gain flexibility.

[More on the Rangers’ rebuild]

While I doubt that many teams can recreate the Rangers’ mix of wisdom and luck, the bottom line is that the Wild have gone a long time since they focused on getting blue chip prospects. Look at the Wild’s draft history and you’ll see how rare high first-rounders have been lately, and how often they’ve lacked higher picks altogether.

To sweeten the deal, the 2020 NHL Draft crop is getting quite a bit of hype, too.

Imagine the Wild landing a lottery pick, some picks and prospects through trades, and Kirill Kaprizov’s long-awaited NHL leap. If they hoarded cap space, they could strike for their own answer to Jacob Trouba and/or Artemi Panarin. Suddenly, the Wild go from drowning slowly in quicksand to seeing some light at the end of the tunnel.

***

Things can change quickly in sports. The Wild could make their “poor, sad, dejected, beaten down” fans far happier with some bold changes, but they must sway their most important fan: their owner. If a truly lousy season is the only way for Leipold to clue in, then it might just be worth it for the Wild.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

What kind of GM will Ron Francis be for Seattle?

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Seattle’s NHL expansion franchise confirmed a key hire on Wednesday, naming Ron Francis as its first general manager.

The Hall of Fame center spent just under four years as Carolina Hurricanes GM, and with that, his work inspires mixed reactions. Let’s consider the good, bad, and mixed to try to get a feel for what Francis offers Seattle as its new boss.

Net losses

The Hurricanes never made the playoffs during Francis’ time as GM, and faulty goaltending was the biggest reason why. At the time, gambling on Eddie Lack and Scott Darling as replacements made some sense – though the term Darling received heightened the risks – but both gambles were epic busts.

With Alex Nedeljkovic (37th pick in 2014) still developing, it’s possible that Francis drafted a future answer in net, yet his immediate answers came up empty. Matching the luck that the Vegas Golden Knights have had with Marc-Andre Fleury seems somewhat unlikely, but Francis needs to do better with that crucial position in his second GM stint.

Building a strong young roster on a budget

It says a lot about Francis’ work in Carolina that The Athletic’s (sub. required) Dom Luszczyszyn graded the Hurricanes as the NHL’s most efficient salary structure, and apparently by a healthy margin.

Some of those great contracts were offered up by current GM Don Waddell (or Marc Bergevin’s offer sheet for Sebastian Aho), yet Francis and his crew authored some stunners. Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce boast some of the best bargain contracts in the NHL.

[RELATED: NHL Seattle tabs Ron Francis as first GM]

With a clean slate in Seattle, maybe Francis and his crew can create similar competitive advantages?

Drafting wise, the Hurricanes had some big wins under Francis, most notably stealing Aho in the second round in 2015. Still, if you’re a Hurricanes fan, maybe spare yourself the thought of Carolina getting Charlie McAvoy or Alex DeBrincat instead of Jake Bean at No. 13 in 2016, and some other gems instead of Haydn Fleury at No. 7 in 2014. Maybe Fleury and Bean are late bloomers, but it’s tough to imagine them looking like the right moves. If NHL teams truly have learned from the last expansion draft, Seattle will be more draft-dependent than Vegas has been so far, so Francis may be asked to hit homers instead of singles with key picks.

(NHL GMs make enough blunders that Seattle may still get some Jonathan Marchessault-type opportunities, though, so we’ll see.)

Investing in analytics

Whether it’s Francis or Waddell, it’s difficult to distinguish which smart Hurricanes moves stem from them, and which ones boil down to brilliant analytics work from the likes of Eric Tulsky. The thing is, if Francis listens to advice in Seattle, does it really matter?

A lot must still come together, but it’s promising that Seattle already hired a promising mind in Alexandra Mandrycky. Mandrycky was hired before Francis, so there’s a solid sign they may end up on the same page.

If your reaction is “One analytics hire, big deal,” then … well, you should be right. This list of publicly available analytics hires from Shayna Goldman argues that Seattle is off to a good start, and could leave some turtle-like teams in the dust if they keep going:

To take advantage of the expansion draft, you might need to be creative. Leaning on analytics could be key to eking out extra value.

***

Ultimately, we only know so much about Francis.

While George McPhee took decades of experience into Vegas, Francis was only Hurricanes GM for a touch under four years. Such a thought softens the “no playoffs” criticism, and while some of his work was hit-or-miss, it’s crucial to realize that Francis left the Hurricanes in a generally better place than when he took over.

Will his approach work for an expansion franchise in Seattle? To some extent, it will boil down to “taking what the defense gives him,” as Francis might be able to find savvy deals like Vegas did with Marchessault and Reilly Smith, and what Francis managed himself in exploiting Chicago’s cap issues to land a star in Teravainen. It’s also worth realizing that Seattle offers different variables than Carolina did, including possibly giving Francis a bigger budget to work with.

Overall, this seems like a reasonable hire, but much like Seattle’s roster or even its team name, Francis can be filed under “to be determined.”

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.