Next summer shaping up to be a nightmare for Predators

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This has certainly been an interesting offseason for the Nashville Predators. They acquired the much-maligned Brett Lebda, they’ve wondered about Francis Bouillon’s concussion and availability for next season, and even unveiled new jerseys. But head and shoulders above all other stories have been the Shea Weber contract negotiations and subsequent salary arbitration hearings.

The negotiations came to a head when the independent arbitrator gave Weber the highest award in the history of NHL arbitration with a one-year deal worth $7.5 million. The deal is especially constricting for a team that already operates on a budget, but the money isn’t even the worst part of the deal for the Predators. Since Weber is set to become a restricted free agent again next season, each of the Predators “Big 3” are set to be free agents on July 1, 2012. This offseason is nothing compared to the impending fiasco for GM David Poile and the Predators next season.

Stu Hackel from Sports Illustrated knows these three impending contracts could change the way the Predators do business:

“It has not been Poile’s modus operandi with the Predators to make splashy big-name acquisitions, and the team’s fiscal restraints have played a deciding role in that. Now that they know what their salary structure looks like and can project what it might look like after re-upping Suter and Rinne, we’ll see whether it triggers a new era in Nashville or leaves them as a lower-spending team that may be forced to part with high-priced talent.”

Next season, Pekka Rinne is set to make $3.4 million in the last year of his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Likewise, defenseman Ryan Suter will make $3.5 in the last year of his deal before unrestricted free agency. Mix in Weber’s $7.5 million and the Predators have $14.4 million dedicated to three players next season. The Predators have never officially announced their payroll budget, but last season the Predators spent $50.9 against the salary cap. Barring any unforeseen changes to management or their organization strategy, it’s safe to assume they’ll be in the same ballpark for the immediate future.

The problem is that the $14.4 million for all three players is the good news. The bad news is that Weber is likely to get a similar type salary if he performs at the same level he’s established over the last two years. Pekka Rinne has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL over the last three seasons and was finally rewarded with a Vezina nomination this year. His .930 save percentage and 2.12 goals against average put him among the league’s elite—and people are finally taking notice. With guys like Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Ward, Ryan Miller, and Niklas Backstrom all making over $6 million per season and Ilya Bryzgalov signing a 9-year deal worth $5.6 million per season, Rinne is in line for a sizeable raise.

In the same way, Ryan Suter has been outplaying his current 4-year, $14 million contract. Looking at his numbers, play on the ice, leadership, and importance to the Predators, Suter is also in for a big raise. At the 2010 Olympics, he showed the world that he was an elite player with or without his better-known defense partner. In fact, many at the games said that Suter was the best defenseman on the ice for Team USA. When he hits the unrestricted market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a contract in the Andrei Markov/James Wisniewski/Duncan Keith neighborhood. For those of you keeping track at home, that means he’ll be looking at an estimated cap hit around $5.5 million.

GM David Poile spoke about Ryan Suter and Pekka Rinne:

“They’re both unrestricted this year. All of our focus has been on Shea’s situation to this point. I would much prefer to get into training camp to get everybody there, to see how good our team is, to sit down with Shea again, Sutes and Pekka at the appropriate time and see how everybody thinks.”

Poile and the Predators will have their work cut out for them over the next 11 months. Not only do they have to worry about the three big name free agents in Weber, Rinne, and Suter, but they have other pieces that are also up for new contracts at season’s end. If the team decides to move away from Pekka Rinne, they’ll have to address pending restricted free agent Andres Lindback. The next blueliner set to take the next step in the NHL from Nashville’s defenseman factory is Jonathan Blum—who is a restricted free agent next season. Up front, they’ll have to deal with restricted free agents Sergei Kostitsyn, Blake Geoffrion, Cal O’Reilly, and Colin Wilson.

And we thought this offseason was interesting.

Pens’ Justin Schultz out four months with fractured leg

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The Pittsburgh Penguins are going to be without Justin Schultz for a while.

Schultz underwent successful surgery on Sunday to repair a fracture in his lower left leg, according to the team. Schultz was injured on Saturday night in a game against the Montreal Canadiens after falling awkwardly on his leg.

He’s expected to miss four months, pegging his return in the middle of February at the earliest.

Fair warning: the video isn’t for the faint of heart.

Schultz had been producing at a point-per-game rate before getting injured, with four assists in Pittsburgh’s first four games. That was good for second on the team in terms of defensemen scoring behind Kris Letang while averaging over 17 minutes during his first three games.

It goes without saying, but it’s a big blow to the Penguins’ back end.

With Schultz out, the Penguins are going to be looking for players to step up, including his partner Jack Johnson, who signed a five-year deal with the club this summer. Johnson has yet to produce a point so far this season. Olli Maatta is also another candidate that needs to jumpstart his season in a hurry. Maatta has already been a healthy scratch this season, and like Johnson, has yet to put up a point.

The Penguins started the season with Maatta and Johnson together so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them give that a go again.

The injury will also mean more time for rookie Juuso Riikola and Jamie Oleksiak, who could be paired together going forward. Both players have spent time in and out of the lineup early on. Riikola could stand to benefit most from Schultz’s absence, so there’s a big opportunity there for him to grab some extra minutes.

Schultz was the second man over the boards on the power play after Letang. Perhaps Riikola gets a look there as well.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

What’s behind Hurricanes’ early-season success?

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The Carolina Hurricanes are off to a mighty fine start, eh?

A 4-1-1 record, with their lone regulation loss coming against the Winnipeg Jets in a game they thoroughly dominated but lost on a late third-period hiccup. The Hurricanes have been a pleasant surprise in the NHL in the infancy of the 2018-19 season.

As PHT’s Adam Gretz pointed out last week, the team is young, fun and worth watching.

They are all three of those things, and they’re doing so in such dominant fashion thus far. Case and point: Over the past two games, Carolina has logged a whopping 100 shots on goal. They peppered Devan Dubnyk and the Minnesota Wild into submission on Saturday night, finally winning the game in overtime on sheer volume alone on their 57th shot.

On Sunday night in Winnipeg, a team playing the second game of a back-to-back put up 43 more against a team that’s touted as a Stanley Cup contender. The Hurricanes enjoyed 61 percent of the possession in the game, producing 34 scoring chances, with 14 of those being of the high-danger variety.

Their loss on vs. the Jets was bad luck more than anything. Winnipeg didn’t deserve to win the game. The Hurricanes didn’t deserve to lose.

And while the ‘L’ might be a sobering reminder that life isn’t always fair in the NHL, Carolina’s play as a whole has put the league on watch.

The Hurricanes roll four lines that control the game’s shot share. Here’s a handy-dandy chart to explain:

Source: Natural Stat Trick

Carolina has been overwhelming teams thus far and it’s coming from everywhere. There’s little drop off no matter who’s on the ice.

There’s a disclaimer here and that is that the season is young. These are far from concrete numbers over the course of an 82-game season, but what they do show is how well the Hurricanes are clicking together amongst their four lines and how it’s having a direct effect on their results, even with the small sample size.

Are these numbers likely to regress? Yes.

But while they may fall closer to the earth going forward, they could get covered off if Carolina’s goaltending improves. Petr Mrazek was sensational against the Jets, and Curtis McElhinney has allowed eight goals in three starts. That’s good. But with the Hurricanes controlling so much of the offense, they’re giving up just 25 shots per game. Their team save percentage is sitting at .886 through six games, which is hardly world-beating.

The return of Scott Darling at some point could help that if he’s the re-invigorated man he claimed to be over the summer. And while regression will set it at some point, league-average goaltending would go a long way into mitigating its effects.

For now, the Hurricanes sit atop the NHL in possession, tied with the San Jose Sharks. They’re sixth in goals-for percentage, which is simply the percentage of goals-for vs. goals-against, third in scoring chances for, second in high-danger chances for, which is shots that occur in the slot in front of the net, and first in high-danger goals for, meaning goals scored from those high-danger areas.

In layman’s terms: The NHL’s most exciting team is also one of its most dangerous.

And the plan is for that to continue.

“We’re going to continue to try to play like that,” said forward Jordan Staal Sunday night. “It’s been our aggressive style. Obviously, we’re a quick team and we’re trying to play that way and create turnovers. Our [defense] has been really good with good gaps and creating a lot of shots, too, to kind of create seconds. We’re going to continue to try and pepper goalies and try to get some more goals.”

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

PHT Morning Skate: Pastrnak’s rise to superstardom; Gritty now in costume form

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Welcome to the PHT Morning Skate, a collection of links from around the hockey world. Have a link you want to submit? Email us at phtblog@nbcsports.com.

William Nylander hasn’t asked for a trade nor have the Maple Leafs been shopping him. (Sportsnet)

• An inside look at the Calgary Flames’ decision between Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm at the 2013 NHL Draft. (Calgary Sun)

• Minnesota Vikings receiver Adam Thielen sported Anaheim Ducks-inspired cleats this weekend. (NHL.com)

• Can you guess who leads the NHL at 24 minutes a night? (Edmonton Journal)

David Pastrnak coming into his own as a superstar in the NHL. (Metro US)

• Evgeny Kuznetsov and Brett Connolly’s failed fist bump is the NHL’s GIF of the year. (Russian Machine Never Breaks)

Tyler Seguin talks misconceptions about some of the NHL’s most controversial players. (SportsDay)

• Gritty is now a Halloween costume because of course he is. (NHL.com)

• NHL players come from all ends of the earth. Here’s a breakdown. (The Hockey News)

Austin Watson and his curious case. (Toronto Star)

• Ottawa Senators veterans opening their homes to the team’s future. (Ottawa Sun)

Lars Eller doesn’t believe in the Maple Leafs. (TSN.ca)

Frederik Andersen is doing something he doesn’t normally do: get off to a good start. (Toronto Star)


Scott Billeck is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @scottbilleck

The Buzzer: Brossoit leads Jets; Palmieri’s historic double

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Three Stars

1. Laurent Brossoit, Winnipeg Jets. While earning his first win as a Jet, Brossoit stopped 42 shots during a 3-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. For the fifth time in seven games, the Hurricanes fired at least 40 shots on net, but the 25-year-old netminder stood tall to help Winnipeg to their second win in three games.

2. Kyle Palmieri, New Jersey Devils. Continuing his hot start to the season, Palmieri netted two goals during the Devils’ 3-2 win over the San Jose Sharks. His second period power-play goal was followed up by another tally early in the third period even the score at two. Palmieri now has six goals on the season, scoring twice in each of New Jersey’s three games this season. And per the NHL, Palmieri is the fourth NHL player to score multiple goals in three straight games to begin a season, joining Patrick Marleau (2012-13), Cy Denneny (1917-18) and Peter Stastny (1982-83).

3. Ryan Miller, Anaheim Ducks. Miller made 29 saves, including 10 in the final period to help the Ducks to a 3-2 win over the St. Louis Blues. Dating back to the end of last season, Anaheim has won its last four games Miller has started.

Highlights of the Night

Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine on a 2-on-0 would result in a goal probably 99.9 percent of the time. Not this time, thanks to Petr Mrazek:

• Patrik Laine. From the circle. One-timer.

Bryan Little‘s first of the season broke a 2-2 tie with 2:09 to go to help the Jets to a victory. What a pass by Josh Morrissey:

Andrew Cogliano also picked the right time to score, breaking a 2-2 deadlock on the power play with 5:16 left in the third period:

Factoid of the Night

Scores
Devils 3, Sharks 2
Ducks 3, Blues 2
Jets 3, Hurricanes 1

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

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Sean Leahy is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @Sean_Leahy.