Which teams’ penalty kill units were the best and worst last season? (Penalty kill +/- in 2010-11)

Earlier tonight, I rolled out the 2010-11 Power Play Plus/Minus numbers as an alternative to the traditional power play percentage stat. Here’s a Cliff Notes explanation of the logic: PP% is misleading because it doesn’t reward teams who score the most goals (just the teams who are most efficient) and there is no penalty for allowing shorthanded goals.

For those reasons, I think “PP +/-” paints a far more accurate picture of which NHL teams had the best and worst power plays. Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers had better units than many might have realized in 2010-11 while the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche’s PP groups were actually more like double-edged swords.

Re-introducing Penalty Kill Plus/Minus

The league’s measurement of penalty kill units is similarly faulty, which prompts the sister stat Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Naturally, it might not seem as “elegant” when the best team still has a high “minus” number, but this stat rewards teams who don’t recklessly take penalty after penalty and also gives PK units credit for scoring shorthanded goals, which can provide pivotal moments in games. (Just look at how Jordan Staal’s shorthanded goal seemed to shift momentum during the Penguins’ Stanley Cup finals series against the Detroit Red Wings in 2009.)

Before I reveal the 2010-11 PK Plus/Minus results, here are the rankings for the NHL’s 30 teams according to standard PK percentage. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed, penalty kill percentage and shorthanded goals scored.  Note: stats are from the 2010-11 regular season, not the playoffs.

Team TS PPGA PK% SHG
PIT 324 45 86.1 13
WSH 299 43 85.6 7
VAN 312 45 85.6 6
LAK 276 40 85.5 4
NSH 272 41 84.9 5
FLA 267 41 84.6 4
MTL 327 51 84.4 5
TBL 302 49 83.8 1
OTT 294 48 83.7 6
NYR 257 42 83.7 11
NJD 241 40 83.4 3
NYI 310 52 83.2 15
BUF 300 51 83 2
MIN 308 53 82.8 7
PHI 313 54 82.8 13
BOS 265 46 82.6 11
DET 300 53 82.3 5
STL 279 51 81.7 7
ANA 305 57 81.3 7
CAR 272 51 81.2 7
CGY 282 53 81.2 7
CBJ 314 62 80.2 6
DAL 277 55 80.1 10
SJS 274 56 79.6 6
CHI 255 53 79.2 6
PHX 296 64 78.4 5
ATL 285 64 77.5 6
TOR 275 62 77.4 5
EDM 321 74 77 8
COL 314 75 76.1 8

***

Now let’s look at how teams looked according to Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed and penalty kill plus/minus.

Team TS PPGA SHG PK +/-
NYR 257 42 11 -31
PIT 324 45 13 -32
BOS 265 46 11 -35
WSH 299 43 7 -36
LAK 276 40 4 -36
NSH 272 41 5 -36
FLA 267 41 4 -37
NJD 241 40 3 -37
NYI 310 52 15 -37
VAN 312 45 6 -39
PHI 313 54 13 -41
OTT 294 48 6 -42
STL 279 51 7 -44
CAR 272 51 7 -44
DAL 277 55 10 -45
MTL 327 51 5 -46
MIN 308 53 7 -46
CGY 282 53 7 -46
CHI 255 53 6 -47
TBL 302 49 1 -48
DET 300 53 5 -48
BUF 300 51 2 -49
ANA 305 57 7 -50
SJS 274 56 6 -50
CBJ 314 62 6 -56
TOR 275 62 5 -57
ATL 285 64 6 -58
PHX 296 64 5 -59
EDM 321 74 8 -66
COL 314 75 8 -67

***

Unlike the PP +/- results, the top teams saw some shuffles when you factored in total PP goals allowed and shorthanded goals scored. Here are the most interesting findings.

  • The Rangers went from 10th place to first because they didn’t take many penalties, only allowed 42 PP goals and scored 11 shorthanded. The Bruins climbed from 16th to third place for similar reasons.
  • The Penguins were the only team in the top five to take at least 300 penalties (324), yet they didn’t allow many PP goals and were dangerous shorthanded. Maybe Jack Adams award winner Dan Bylsma might want to put that on his resume …
  • The Canadiens dropped from seventh to being tied for 16th because they took 327 penalties, allowing 51 goals in the process. They also didn’t create a lot of scoring opportunities going the other way, totaling just 5 shorthanded goals.
  • The Lightning dropped from eighth to tied for 20th because they allowed 49 PP goals (302 penalties taken) and only scored one shortie. They definitely didn’t enjoy it when a PK goal was scored either way last season, allowing 16 SHG and scoring just one of their own.
  • Want a snapshot of Colorado’s awful 2010-11 season? They had the league’s worst PP and PK plus/minus totals.

***

Now that we have power play and penalty kill units covered, the last post will put it all together.

Lightning vs. Stars: 3 keys to Game 6 of Stanley Cup Final

Stanley Cup Final Game 6
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The Tampa Bay Lightning have another chance to win the Stanley Cup on Monday night when they take on the Dallas Stars in Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, NBC, LiveStream) of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final.

The Stars were able to extend the series on Saturday night with a double overtime thriller in Game 5 that was capped off with Corey Pery’s overtime winner.

Will they be able to keep the series going one more game?

Or will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Stanley Cup for the second time in franchise history and for the first time since the 2003-04 season?

We find out tonight.

Here are the three keys to watch for going into Game 6 on Monday.

[NBC 2020 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

1. Penalties

It really is pretty simple for the Stars right now. Stay out of the penalty box, give yourself a chance. Keep taking penalties, watch the Lightning skate around with the Stanley Cup.

The Stars were penalized just one time in their Game 5 win on Saturday, a major shift from what we saw from them in Games 2-4 of the series when early penalty troubles helped put them in a hole they could not climb out of.

The Lightning power play is too dangerous to keep putting on the ice, and that is especially true for the Stars right now as they are still dealing with injuries to three of their top penalty killing forwards (Radek Faksa, Blake Comeau, Roope Hintz). The Lightning still have the superior talent throughout their lineup, but if the Stars can keep things 5-on-5 it certainly increases their chances of tying things.

Even though the Lightning have controlled the possession, scoring chances, and expected goal numbers, the Stars actually have a slight 12-10 goals advantage during 5-on-5 play in the series.

Special teams have been the difference on the scoreboard.

2. Tyler Seguin

The Stars’ top line was under the microscope earlier due to their scoring slump.

Seguin in particular was having a difficult stretch as he was in the middle of a 12-game stretch where he recorded just a single a point (an assist in Game 3 of the Western Conference Final).

He still has not scored a goal in 14 consecutive games, but he has started to make a far more noticeable impact over the past two games of the Stanley Cup Final. It is during that stretch that he has an assist on five of the Stars’ eight goals, including each of Joe Pavelski‘s game-tying goals in the third period to send each game to overtime.

The Stars are getting some big contributions right now from Pavelski and Corey Perry, but getting something from their top players (including Seguin and Jamie Benn) would be a really significant boost.

3. Lightning top line

They are one of the keys to the game because they are quite simply a key to every game this postseason.

Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point are both leading the Conn Smythe race, while Ondrej Palat has been a perfect complement to the superstar duo.

When that trio is on the ice during 5-on-5 play in this series the Lightning are controlling more than 70 percent of the total shot attempts and have outscored Dallas by a 6-3 margin in just over 71 minutes of hockey, and it has not mattered who the Stars have tried to use against them in an effort to slow them down.

No one has been able to do it.

Just as no one on any team has been able to do it this postseason.

Point is tied for the league lead in playoff goal scoring.

Kucherov is leading the league in total points and has at least one point in 18 of the Lightning’s 24 games, including nine multi-point games.

At least one of those two has been on the ice for 48 of the Lightning’s 77 goals (62 percent!) this postseason, while the two of them have been on the ice together for 37 of those goals (48 percent), while they have also posted dominant shot and possession numbers.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars (TB leads 3-2)

Stars 4, Lightning 1 (recap)
Lightning 3, Stars 2 (recap)
Lightning 5, Stars 2 (recap)
Lighting 5, Stars 4 [OT] (recap)
Stars 3, Lightning 2 [2OT] (recap)
Game 6: Monday, Sept. 28, 8 p.m. ET – NBC (livestream)
*Game 7: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 8 p.m. ET – NBC

*if necessary

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

 

Pavelski signing paying off when Stars needed it most

Joe Pavelski Stars
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If the Dallas Stars have been known for anything during the Jim Nill era it has been their willingness to make a big splash every offseason.

Since Nill was hired as the team’s general manager in 2013 they have consistently been one of the big “winners” of the offseason.

Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp, Alexander Radulov, and Ben Bishop have been just some of the notable players the Stars have acquired under Nill’s watch. They were at it again this summer when they signed free agents Corey Perry and Joe Pavelski.

The hope was that they could serve as the missing pieces for what was an incredibly top-heavy team that was one game away from the Western Conference Final a year ago.

[NBC 2020 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

Both players have made a significant impact in the Stanley Cup Final as the Stars attempt to pull off another stunning upset in the 2020 playoffs.

Perry was the Game 5 hero on Saturday night by scoring a pair of goals, including the game-winner in double overtime to send the series to Game 6 on Monday night (8 p.m. ET, NBC, LiveStream).

Perry’s deal was always a very low-risk move because it didn’t really require the Stars to make any kind of a significant investment. It was a one year contract for $1.5 million, and if he turned out to be washed up it was not really costing them anything. He didn’t make a huge impact during the regular season, but he has been more noticeable in the playoffs, including his Game 5 heroics on Saturday.

Pavelski was the more significant addition.

As well as the bigger risk.

During his peak, Pavelski was one of the league’s top goal scorers and a cornerstone piece in San Jose. Even though he was entering his age 35 season was still coming off of an absolutely massive 38-goal performance for the Sharks a year ago and still seemed to have a little something left in the tank. Even if he did not duplicate that success — and no one should have expected him to — he still figured to add some much-needed balance to a Stars lineup that was only getting consistent offense from one of its lines a year ago.

The Stars landed him with a three-year, $21 million contract in free agency.

In the beginning, things were not working out all that well.

[Lightning vs. Stars: 2020 Stanley Cup Final schedule]

In his first 13 games with the Stars Pavelski had managed just two goals, an assist, and was barely averaging more than one shot on goal per game. There was almost no impact. Given the contract and the expectations, he was probably one of the most disappointing players on what had been a wildly disappointing start for the Stars.

But starting in February he really started to catch fire and play like the impact forward Dallas was hoping to acquire, finishing the regular season with six goals and 12 total points over his final 17 games.

That improved production has continued into the playoffs.

Entering Game 6 on Monday, Pavelski is tied with Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point for the postseason lead in total goals (13) and even-strength goals (10), and has been especially hot in the Stanley Cup Final. He has already scored four goals in the first five games of the series, including a massive, season-saving goal late in the third period to tie Saturday’s game and send it to overtime. That overall production, as well some of his big moments (a hat trick in the First Round, for example) have helped put him on the Conn Smythe watch list.

Maybe Pavelski won’t be a $7 million player in the third year of his contract. Maybe he’s not even one right now. But the bottom line for the Stars is this: They were a Game 7 double overtime loss away from being in the Western Conference Final a year ago despite only having one line that presented itself as a serious scoring threat. They needed somebody else to make an impact to help get them over the hump and get closer to a championship.

They paid Pavelski to make an impact in these games. And he has. Exactly when they needed him to make an impact. If he helps them get two more wins and complete an absolutely improbable postseason run to a championship, through what would be an absolutely remarkable series of teams, no one in Dallas is going to care what the salary cap hit is.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Lightning-Stars stream: 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Final

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NBC’s coverage of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs continues with Monday’s Stanley Cup Final matchup between the Lightning and Stars. Coverage begins at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. Watch the Lightning-Stars stream on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

Facing elimination for the second time this postseason, the Stars overcame a third-period deficit and won the first Cup Final double-overtime game since 2014 to deny the Lightning the title and force Game 6. In what was the second set of a back-to-back, two aging offseason signees were the difference for Dallas as 36-year-old Joe Pavelski tied the game with 6:45 remaining in regulation and 35-year-old Corey Perry ended the second overtime game in as many days with his put back 9:23 into the second extra session.

Pavelski has now scored 13 goals, tied with Brayden Point for the most in these playoffs. He’s one shy of his total in the 2016 playoffs (14) when he led all players in the only other postseason he reached the Cup Final. That series against Pittsburgh, Pavelski had a goal in 6 games – his only point in the series. In this Cup Final, he has four goals in five games (all in last four games).

[NBC 2020 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

In two games facing elimination this postseason, Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin has stopped 79 of 85 shots, with both wins coming past regulation. With a win in Game 6 he will have the second-most victories in a single postseason in franchise history.

Lightning head coach Jon Cooper announced Sunday that captain Steven Stamkos will not appear the rest of this series, meaning if Tampa wins the Cup it’ll be the first time since the Flames in 1989 that a team has a captain not play in the Cup-clinching game.

Historically, a 3-1 series lead in the Cup Final has almost guaranteed an eventual Cup victory, with teams converting 33 times in 34 total tries. The only time a team blew a 3-1 lead in the Cup Final was in 1942, when Detroit lost to Toronto after leading the series 3-0.

WHAT: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars
WHERE: Rogers Place – Edmonton
WHEN: Monday, September 28, 8 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
ON THE CALL: Mike Emrick, Eddie Olczyk, Brian Boucher
LIVE STREAM: You can watch the Lightning-Stars stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars (TB leads 3-2)

Stars 4, Lightning 1 (recap)
Lightning 3, Stars 2 (recap)
Lightning 5, Stars 2 (recap)
Lighting 5, Stars 4 [OT] (recap)
Stars 3, Lightning 2 [2OT] (recap)
Game 6: Monday, Sept. 28, 8 p.m. ET – NBC (livestream)
*Game 7: Wednesday, Sept. 30, 8 p.m. ET – NBC

*if necessary

NHL announces ninth straight week with zero positive COVID-19 tests

NHL Covid-19 Tests
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As the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars get closer to the crowning of a new Stanley Cup Champion, the NHL reported that it has gone a ninth straight week with zero positive COVID-19 test results from their postseason bubble.

The league said on Monday it has conducted 33,174 tests since the Phase 4 portion of its Return To Play plan began in late July with zero positive test results coming back.

That includes the 774 tests that were conducted during the week of September 20 through September 26.

The NHL’s postseason featured 24 teams reporting to two hub cities (Toronto and Edmonton) in late July with strict mask and social distancing measures in place. Each team was permitted to carry a 52-member traveling party with them into the bubbles, with each person undergoing daily testing.

[NBC 2020 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF HUB]

The league has not had a positive COVID-19 test result since mid-July when it had two positive results during Phase 3 (full training camps) of its return. Prior to that there were 43 positive tests during the Phase 2 (small group workouts at team facilities) portion.

The Eastern Conference played it Round-Robin, Qualifying Rounds, and First-and Second Rounds of the playoffs in Toronto, while the Western Conference played its games in Edmonton.

The Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Final have been played in Edmonton.

If the Lightning win Game 6 on Monday night it will wrap the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs and the bubble experience. If Dallas wins they will have one more game on Wednesday night.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.