Which teams’ penalty kill units were the best and worst last season? (Penalty kill +/- in 2010-11)

Earlier tonight, I rolled out the 2010-11 Power Play Plus/Minus numbers as an alternative to the traditional power play percentage stat. Here’s a Cliff Notes explanation of the logic: PP% is misleading because it doesn’t reward teams who score the most goals (just the teams who are most efficient) and there is no penalty for allowing shorthanded goals.

For those reasons, I think “PP +/-” paints a far more accurate picture of which NHL teams had the best and worst power plays. Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers had better units than many might have realized in 2010-11 while the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche’s PP groups were actually more like double-edged swords.

Re-introducing Penalty Kill Plus/Minus

The league’s measurement of penalty kill units is similarly faulty, which prompts the sister stat Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Naturally, it might not seem as “elegant” when the best team still has a high “minus” number, but this stat rewards teams who don’t recklessly take penalty after penalty and also gives PK units credit for scoring shorthanded goals, which can provide pivotal moments in games. (Just look at how Jordan Staal’s shorthanded goal seemed to shift momentum during the Penguins’ Stanley Cup finals series against the Detroit Red Wings in 2009.)

Before I reveal the 2010-11 PK Plus/Minus results, here are the rankings for the NHL’s 30 teams according to standard PK percentage. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed, penalty kill percentage and shorthanded goals scored.  Note: stats are from the 2010-11 regular season, not the playoffs.

Team TS PPGA PK% SHG
PIT 324 45 86.1 13
WSH 299 43 85.6 7
VAN 312 45 85.6 6
LAK 276 40 85.5 4
NSH 272 41 84.9 5
FLA 267 41 84.6 4
MTL 327 51 84.4 5
TBL 302 49 83.8 1
OTT 294 48 83.7 6
NYR 257 42 83.7 11
NJD 241 40 83.4 3
NYI 310 52 83.2 15
BUF 300 51 83 2
MIN 308 53 82.8 7
PHI 313 54 82.8 13
BOS 265 46 82.6 11
DET 300 53 82.3 5
STL 279 51 81.7 7
ANA 305 57 81.3 7
CAR 272 51 81.2 7
CGY 282 53 81.2 7
CBJ 314 62 80.2 6
DAL 277 55 80.1 10
SJS 274 56 79.6 6
CHI 255 53 79.2 6
PHX 296 64 78.4 5
ATL 285 64 77.5 6
TOR 275 62 77.4 5
EDM 321 74 77 8
COL 314 75 76.1 8

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Now let’s look at how teams looked according to Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed and penalty kill plus/minus.

Team TS PPGA SHG PK +/-
NYR 257 42 11 -31
PIT 324 45 13 -32
BOS 265 46 11 -35
WSH 299 43 7 -36
LAK 276 40 4 -36
NSH 272 41 5 -36
FLA 267 41 4 -37
NJD 241 40 3 -37
NYI 310 52 15 -37
VAN 312 45 6 -39
PHI 313 54 13 -41
OTT 294 48 6 -42
STL 279 51 7 -44
CAR 272 51 7 -44
DAL 277 55 10 -45
MTL 327 51 5 -46
MIN 308 53 7 -46
CGY 282 53 7 -46
CHI 255 53 6 -47
TBL 302 49 1 -48
DET 300 53 5 -48
BUF 300 51 2 -49
ANA 305 57 7 -50
SJS 274 56 6 -50
CBJ 314 62 6 -56
TOR 275 62 5 -57
ATL 285 64 6 -58
PHX 296 64 5 -59
EDM 321 74 8 -66
COL 314 75 8 -67

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Unlike the PP +/- results, the top teams saw some shuffles when you factored in total PP goals allowed and shorthanded goals scored. Here are the most interesting findings.

  • The Rangers went from 10th place to first because they didn’t take many penalties, only allowed 42 PP goals and scored 11 shorthanded. The Bruins climbed from 16th to third place for similar reasons.
  • The Penguins were the only team in the top five to take at least 300 penalties (324), yet they didn’t allow many PP goals and were dangerous shorthanded. Maybe Jack Adams award winner Dan Bylsma might want to put that on his resume …
  • The Canadiens dropped from seventh to being tied for 16th because they took 327 penalties, allowing 51 goals in the process. They also didn’t create a lot of scoring opportunities going the other way, totaling just 5 shorthanded goals.
  • The Lightning dropped from eighth to tied for 20th because they allowed 49 PP goals (302 penalties taken) and only scored one shortie. They definitely didn’t enjoy it when a PK goal was scored either way last season, allowing 16 SHG and scoring just one of their own.
  • Want a snapshot of Colorado’s awful 2010-11 season? They had the league’s worst PP and PK plus/minus totals.

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Now that we have power play and penalty kill units covered, the last post will put it all together.

Blues goal disallowed on season’s weirdest play

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The St. Louis Blues are, in their own words, a fragile team at the moment and can not catch a break.

Even when it seems like they may have been able to catch one.

In the first period of Tuesday’s game against the Florida Panthers, defender Robert Bortuzzo innocently dumped the puck into the offensive zone from just outside the blue line, where it bounced off of referee Tim Peel’s midsection and ended up in the back of the net behind Roberto Luongo.

It was bizarre. It was flukey. It was strange. It was also illegal.

From the NHL’s situation room:

At 5:17 of the first period in the Panthers/Blues game, Robert Bortuzzo’s shot deflected off an official and into the Florida net. Rule 78.5 states that apparent goals shall be disallowed “when the puck has deflected directly into the net off an official.” No goal St. Louis.

Peel was shaken up as a result of the play and had to leave the ice.

To make matters worse? The Blues gave up a goal to Florida’s Evgenii Dadonov later in the period to fall behind. Such is life right now for the Blues.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

WATCH LIVE: Capitals host Red Wings on NBCSN

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2018-19 NHL season continues with Tuesday night’s matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals with coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET. You can watch the game online and on the NBC Sports app by clicking here.

The Capitals and especially Red Wings probably wouldn’t admit this – at least on the record – but both teams should be pretty happy about where they are right now.

For the defending Stanley Cup champions, it’s a familiar place. Through early ups and downs, the Caps have mostly shook off an expected Stanley Cup hangover, finding away to grab the Metropolitan Division lead. Also familiar: Alex Ovechkin keeps lighting the lamp, as the prolific sniper already has 22 goals (to go with 36 points) in just 29 games.

If the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs began on Tuesday, the Red Wings would be on the outside looking in. Even so, the Red Wings have 32 standings points coming into their game against the Capitals, placing them 10th in the East. That’s not half-bad when you realize that this team is very much in a rebuilding process, whether they like it (and accept it) or not.

[Speaking of which, is coach Jeff Blashill part of that future?]

Sure, the Red Wings will be underdogs in this contest. They’d already carry that role out of context, but that’s especially clear being that they’re wrapping up a back-to-back set after beating the Kings 3-1 on Monday.

Washington would be foolish to take Detroit lightly, however. The Red Wings are 4-2-1 in their last seven games, enjoying solid seasons from Dylan Larkin (29 points) and Gustav Nyquist (27).

Can the Capitals take business at home? Find out on NBCSN.

[WATCH LIVE – COVERAGE BEGINS AT 6:30 P.M. ET – NBCSN]

What: Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals
Where: Capital One Arena
When: Tuesday, Dec. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN
Live stream: You can watch the Red Wings – Capitals stream on NBC Sports’ live stream page and the NBC Sports app.

PROJECTED LINEUPS

RED WINGS

Gustav Nyquist — Dylan Larkin — Justin Abdelkader

Thomas VanekFrans NielsenAndreas Athanasiou

Tyler BertuzziLuke GlendeningMichael Rasmussen

Christoffer EhnJacob De La RoseMartin Frk

Niklas KronwallMike Green

Jonathan EricssonNick Jensen

Trevor DaleyDennis Cholowski

Starting goalie: Jonathan Bernier

CAPITALS

Alex Ovechkin — Nicklas BackstromT.J. Oshie

Jakub VranaEvgeny KuznetsovBrett Connolly

Chandler StephensonLars EllerDevante Smith-Pelly

Dmitrij JaskinNic DowdTravis Boyd

Michal KempnyJohn Carlson

Dmitry OrlovMatt Niskanen

Christian DjoosMadison Bowey

Starting goalie: Braden Holtby

John Walton (play-by-play) and AJ Mleczko (‘Inside-the-Glass’ analyst) will have the call from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Which defenseman should Hurricanes trade?

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It’s no secret that Carolina is deep on defense. It’s also no secret that they could use a forward or two to score more goals.

Hurricanes GM Don Waddell acknowledged as much on Sportsnet Central at Noon on Tuesday, telling Jeff Marek and Nick Kypreos that a) he’s been receiving a lot of calls about a possible trade for one of those defensemen, b) that the Hurricanes want an immediate return, not futures, and c) they’re looking for a forward. This backs up Pierre LeBrun in last week’s edition of TSN’s Insider Trading, who stated that they’re hoping to land a top-six guy as soon as possible.

Waddell himself admits that trades don’t happen often during this time of year, but it can often be better to be proactive. And, if nothing else, the Hurricanes might want to consider how certain decisions might make certain players more or less “marketable.”

Let’s look at the five defensemen one could (perhaps loosely) deem “premiere,” by Waddell’s words. More realistic movers will receive extra attention, and the defenders are listed in order of their 2018-19 cap hits.

Dougie Hamilton, RD, 25 years old, $5.75 million cap hit through 2020-21

Yes, it would be a bit odd if the Hurricanes traded Hamilton mere months after that big trade during the weekend of the 2018 NHL Draft. They’d also be selling low, as Hamilton’s off to a mediocre offensive start (three goals, 10 points in 28 games) and is averaging one fewer minute per game (20:32 TOI average) than he did during his final year with Calgary.

Yet, for a savvy team, Hamilton remains enticing.

Just about every sign points to him being more useful in a different situation, especially if you sprinkle in better luck. Hamilton is a strong possession player even relative to teammates on a dominant puck possession team, and a low on-ice percentage indicates that he’s not getting bounces.

PHT’s been beating this drum for some time now, but the situation is practically screaming for Hamilton to be the Hurricanes’ top power-play defenseman. The logic wouldn’t just revolve around restoring trade value, as he simply seems to be the most explosive scoring option on that blueline. Much like with Calgary, it’s maddening that the Hurricanes aren’t finding more time for Hamilton in these situations. The Hurricanes want more goals, and while you’re best served having forwards take most of the shots on the power play, it’s not outrageous to wonder if Hamilton could provide added punch if better optimized.

Maybe there’s just an impasse with Rod Brind’Amour? If so, the Hurricanes may be wise to cut their losses, and Hamilton could very well be worth the cost of a decent top-six forward. While his contract has some term on it, that affordable rate – at least for a rehabilitated Hamilton – could make for a bargain, and some helpful cost certainty.

Jaccob Slavin, LD, 24, $5.3M through 2024-25

It’s tough to imagine the Hurricanes trading away their biggest minute-eating defenseman (23:22 per game). Slavin is young, and his contract looks solid now, but could grow to outright-fantastic as the cap rises.

Then again, those reasons might prop him up as the sort of player who could land a truly outstanding return. During that TSN Insider Trading segment, Darren Dreger mentioned that Hurricanes’ left-handed defensemen were being looked at – not just righties, where they’re most overloaded – so Slavin’s worth at least mentioning.

Again, I wouldn’t count on it, though.

Justin Faulk, RD, 26, $4.833M through 2019-20

Honestly, when the Hurricanes landed Hamilton, I figured that Faulk’s days were numbered … to the point that he might not have even begun the season with Carolina. That’s obviously not the case, and Faulk continues to be the QB of a power play that’s been disappointing at best, and his pedestrian scoring numbers (just eight points in 28 games despite that plum job) factor into the bewilderment over Hamilton’s light usage.

Faulk’s possession stats are pretty strong, although they’re actually a little behind relative to his teammates (again, Carolina’s quite gawdy when it comes to “heating up their Corsi”).

It made some sense to trot out Faulk on the top power play unit earlier this season, as the Hurricanes might have viewed pumping up Faulk’s trade value as the tiebreaker against giving Hamilton that role. That course really isn’t doing anyone favors at this point – especially the Hurricanes, who could be dangerous with at least an adequate power play – but it’s not all bad news.

While his standing in the league isn’t what it once was (anyone else forget that Faulk is a three-time All-Star?) Faulk is on an affordable contract that expires after next season. Good right-handed defensemen are hard to find, so it’s conceivable that a team might give up some decent pieces for Faulk.

Calvin de Haan, LD, $4.55M through 2021-22

It was a touch surprising that the Hurricanes made their defense even deeper by signing the former Islanders defenseman this summer, yet it was also lauded as an analytics-friendly move. By those measures, De Haan is mostly living up to those standards.

Like other Carolina blueliners, he’s not getting the scoring stats that are easiest to market, however, as De Haan has just four points.

Considering the significant term of his contract, middling scoring stats, and the notion that he’s sneaky-good, a De Haan trade feels quite unlikely. And that’s perfectly fine for Carolina.

Brett Pesce, RD, $4.025M through 2023-24

The logjam of quality right-handed defensemen dealt the harshest blow to Pesce. His possession stats are troubling relative to his teammates, he’s not scoring much (four points in 19 games), and his ice time has dropped by almost two minutes per game to 19:04.

Take a look at this visualization via Bill Comeau’s SKATR tool, and you’ll see the glaring drop from 2017-18 to 2018-19:

via Bill Comeau

Yikes. Hamilton and Faulk are both in spots where their market value would likely be depressed, but it’s especially glaring with Pesce. Considering his talent (again, those possession stats are still promising) and contract, it’s really tough to imagine Carolina moving him. That said, it’s also likely that plenty of NHL people still hold him in high regard, so he’s listed.

Others: Trevor van Riemsdyk (RD) and Haydin Fleury (LD).

These two aren’t really in that “premiere” tier (in Fleury’s case, at least not yet?). Theoretically, one could be moved if a lower-cost swap would happen, though.

***

One can only speculate about what other NHL GMs would take, and what they would give up, so there are a ton of scenarios that could play out.

Personally, the most realistic ones would involve moving Faulk or Hamilton. To an extent, they both have redundant skills/roles, right-handed shots, and contracts that are fairly movable.

The notion that a trade would likely come later, rather than sooner, points in two very different directions. On one hand, the Hurricanes don’t get to clear that logjam. They lose extra games to integrate a new player into the system after a hypothetical move. Conversely, the Hurricanes could get hotter offensively, which could restore/drive up trade value for the likes of Hamilton or Faulk.

Ultimately, the Hurricanes have a better chance of taking that next, crucial step to the playoffs if they strike a balance. There’s a lot to like about this team right now, but moving an excess defenseman for that elusive additional forward could provide that extra oomph.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Ducks’ injury problems could derail hot streak

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The Anaheim Ducks have really been heating up lately, grabbing six wins in their last seven games. A painfully familiar problem could derail all of that promise, however, as injuries are once again mounting.

The Ducks provided two unfortunate updates on Tuesday:

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Ryan Miller: The superb backup suffered an MCL sprain during Sunday’s wild 6-5 shootout win against the Devils. His recovery window is estimated at six weeks, while they’ll evaluate the veteran goalie once more in two weeks.

As you can note from this breakdown from Anaheim’s five-game winning streak, much of the Ducks’ success came from an impeccable goalie duo of Miller and John Gibson. Gibson is the Vezina-level workhorse, but don’t count out Miller’s contributions. He’s continued a so-far-phenomenal run with the Ducks, managing a .922 save percentage in 10 games this season (with four goals allowed against New Jersey hurting his numbers more than a bit).

Anaheim did get at least one bit of good luck here, relatively speaking. The Ducks were able to pluck an experienced goalie in Chad Johnson off of waivers, as they took him off of the St. Louis Blues’ hands. His former Bengals WR namesake celebrated the occasion:

Johnson’s off to a lousy start in 2018-19 (.884 save percentage in 10 games), and really struggled with the Calgary Flames last season. Even so, his .909 career save percentage is still pretty good for a journeyman backup, especially since the Ducks didn’t need to cough up any assets to give him a try.

None of this makes Miller’s loss good news, yet there’s at least a chance that Johnson could hold down the fort whenever Gibson needs a breather.

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Rickard Rakell: the Ducks didn’t provide a timetable for the winger’s return, labeling his injury as a sprained ankle.

The Athletic’s Eric Stephens reports that Rakell was wearing a protective boot this weekend:

Despite being out since Dec. 5, Rakell stands as the Ducks’ second-highest scorer (20 points in 30 games), trailing only Ryan Getzlaf.

While that 6-5 shootout win against the Devils shows that Anaheim can fill the net from time to time (pauses for own-goal jokes), they’ve generally been scoring just enough to win lately. With that in mind, Rakell’s injury really stings, especially if Nick Ritchie and Pontus Aberg start to cool off.

***

To review, Miller and Rakell join a growing list of injured Ducks. Corey Perry and Cam Fowler are recovering from significant issues that required surgeries. Patrick Eaves is also dealing with injury/health issues, and it’s fair to wonder how often Ryan Kesler is truly at full-strength.

At the moment, the Ducks are ranked third in the Pacific Division with 37 points in 32 games, as the Sharks have the same 16-11-5 record but own an edge in ROW (16 to 13). They’ll close their current homestand out on Wednesday, then head out on the road for six straight away games, mostly against Eastern Conference teams:

Wed, Dec. 12: vs. Dallas
Sat, Dec. 15: @ Columbus
Mon, Dec. 17: @ Pittsburgh
Tue, Dec. 18: @ Rangers
Thu, Dec. 20: @ Boston
Sat, Dec. 22: @ Buffalo
Thu, Dec. 27: @ San Jose

It hasn’t always been pretty for the Ducks, but credit them for fighting through injuries. Unfortunately, it looks like they’ll need to keep doing so.

MORE: Your 2018-19 NHL on NBC TV schedule

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.