What Went Wrong: Tampa Bay Lightning

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Once again a team pushed a series to seven games and once again they’ve fallen short of their goal of moving on. Tampa Bay was able to force a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference finals against Boston only to come up short losing 1-0 in Game 7 after playing inspiring hockey throughout the playoffs that saw them flip the switch from defensive stalwarts to offensive juggernaut when they wanted to. Against Boston, however, it wasn’t meant to be. So what caused them to bow out against the Bruins? Despite pushing a seven game series, we’ve got a pretty good list of problems to work with.

1. Defensive effort not good enough
We talked a little bit about the one missed play defensively in Game 7 that ended up costing Tampa Bay the game and the series, but overall the Lightning’s defensive effort was lacking. Early on in the series you saw Victor Hedman making many youthful mistakes. With it being just his second year in the NHL and him being just 20 years-old and in the midst of his first playoffs, it’s understandable. He improved though but his teammates also had issues.

Eric Brewer and Mattias Ohlund had some struggles later on in the series while Marc-Andre Bergeron was essentially an offense-only option as his defensive play was highly suspect. When the Bruins turned up the pressure on their attack, Lightning defense was hard pressed to fight it off.

Perhaps the most emblematic guy showing off the Lightning’s problems was Brewer. For the amount of ice time he saw (averaged 24:46 per game) he had just one assist and had a plus/minus rating of -4. If you’re going to be a minus, you’d better score points to go with it (Martin St. Louis had seven points and was a -3 for example). Brewer wasn’t helping produce enough and wasn’t helping out enough stopping the opponent. And yes, Brewer was one of the defensemen on the ice for Horton’s game-winner in Game 7 (Ohlund being the other).

2. Dwayne Roloson wasn’t consistent enough
Dwayne Roloson’s play in Game 7 will go down in history as one of the more inspiring performances of the playoffs. 37 saves and an unfortunate loss for the 41 year-old goaltender will leave a bitter taste in his mouth but what will irk him more is his play the rest of the series. Before last night’s Game 7, Roloson was rocking a 4.33 goals against average and a .851 save percentage, numbers that are stunningly poor for the playoffs.

Considering that Roloson was 3-2 in the games he started before Game 7 it’s remarkable the Lightning were even tied in the series. Had he been better though, Tampa Bay may not have gone seven games and would be working on strategies of how to contain the Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler. Instead, they’re done for the year with some important questions waiting to be answered before next season.

3. Sean Bergenheim was a lot more important than you think
When Sean Bergenheim went down with an injury in Game 5 of this series the main thing most of focused in upon was how the Lightning were losing one of their top goal scorers in the playoffs. After all, when you’re second in the entire playoffs with nine goals that’s difficult to ignore. Of course, Bergenheim was a star on Tampa Bay’s third line and the traditional role of the third line is to lay the body and defend against the opposing team.

With Bergenheim out, the Lightning not only lost a goal scorer but a physical component of their team as Bergenheim was second on the team in hits against Boston with 16. Only Mattias Ohlund had more hits with 19 and given the apparent lack of physicality overall from the Lightning, losing a guy who was averaging over three hits a game hurts badly.

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Tampa Bay obviously has a lot of high end talent with St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Steve Stamkos, and Victor Hedman. They’ve got the kind of role players you need to be successful in the playoffs as well but next season they have some questions to answer. Who will be their goalie? Both Roloson and Mike Smith are unrestricted free agents. Will they bring back Simon Gagne and Sean Bergenheim? They’re both free agents to be. How much money will they need to fork over for restricted free agent to be Steven Stamkos? GM Steve Yzerman worked wonders to assemble a team that was instantly successful in the league and went much deeper than anyone thought they would in he and Guy Boucher’s first season.

Expect Tampa Bay to build on this, bring a lot of the band back and help make the team much deeper in the offseason. After all, you build on success with guys like Yzerman in charge, it’s not hard to convince guys to play there especially when “there” is a sunny getaway in Florida.

Bruins increase chances of home-ice with 7th win in a row

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The Boston Bruins are pushing to begin the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs with home-ice advantage, likely against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Even if that doesn’t pan out, at least the Bruins have been red-hot on the road, too.

It wasn’t easy, but the Bruins made their four-game road trip a perfect one by slipping by the Vegas Golden Knights 3-2 in a shootout. This pushes the Bruins’ current winning streak to seven games, and they’ve also generated at least one point in 12 consecutive contests.

Boston generated two one-goal leads in Wednesday’s game, but the pace was often frenetic, and the Golden Knights refused to go down without a fight. This splendid Nate Schmidt goal sent the contest beyond regulation:

The Bruins were whistled for a too many men on the ice penalty during the overtime period, but Patrice Bergeron made some key plays and Jaroslav Halak cleaned up the rest to force the contest to what would end up being a lengthy shootout.

Ultimately, the Bruins won, and strengthened their lead over Toronto for the Atlantic’s second seed, although the Maple Leafs hold games in hand.

Bruins: 36-17-8, 80 points in 61 games, 34 ROW
Maple Leafs: 36-19-4, 76 points in 59 GP, 36 ROW

The Maple Leafs would need to win their two games in hand to tie the Bruins from a points perspective, while they’d lead in ROW even if both of Toronto’s wins came via shootouts. That could very well happen, but this Bruins surge certainly increases the odds of a potential Game 7 taking place in Boston instead of Toronto. For all we know, that could make an impact on what is setting up to be a fantastic first-round series.

Boston made a significant tweak on Wednesday by trading Ryan Donato and a conditional fifth-rounder for Charlie Coyle, possibly strengthening their depth in the process. This outcome reminds the hockey world that they’ve been pretty outstanding even when their top-end players have to do most of the heavy lifting.

More on that Coyle – Donato trade.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Sabres GM fires down talk of firing coach Housley

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Buffalo Sabres GM Jason Botterill gave head coach Phil Housley the “vote of confidence” on Wednesday.

In an interview with reporters including The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington and The Athletic’s John Vogl, Botterill said that he is not looking to make a coaching change.

“We’ve made progress as an organization compared to last year. We’ve been in a position where we’ve been in games,” Botterill said. “I see the results on the ice. I see the communication that we’re going through here. There’s not going to be a coaching change.”

No doubt about it, there are Sabres fans who are frustrated with a team that looks like it will see a playoff drought extend to eight seasons. Buffalo also hasn’t won a playoff series since 2006-07, having lost in the first round in their two postseason appearances since.

Still, Housley hasn’t exactly had a ton of time to turn things around.

That 10-game winning streak and brief spell at the top of the NHL’s standings raised expectations, so seeing Buffalo trail eight-seed Columbus by six points stings. It’s probably not much comfort that the Sabres have already exceeded last season’s 62 points by generating 63 standings points in 59 games.

Such an improvement comes from a lowly point, no doubt, but it’s fair to argue that Housley might deserve one more season.

This is only Housley’s second campaign with the Sabres, and it’s tough to ignore the instability this organization has struggled with. Housley joins Dan Bylsma, Ted Nolan, and Ron Rolston as the fourth coach the Sabres have hired since dismissing mainstay Lindy Ruff in 2013. Botterill’s also only been in place since 2017, so a big front office change would serve as a pretty sudden swerve.

On one hand, you don’t want to keep doing something that isn’t working, and plenty will argue that the Sabres would be guilty of exactly that if they stuck with Housley behind the bench.

On the other hand, when you look at some of the most troubled organizations in sports, a big chunk of them seem to keep changing regimes. For all the benefits that can come with new methods and voices, it can be rough on players, whether that means useful contributors getting shipped out for the sake of change, or merely incumbent players having to learn new systems and connect with new coaches.

With Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin leading the charge, there seems like some light at the end of the tunnel for Buffalo. Like it or not, it seems like Botterill is giving Housley more time to prove that he can be the vehicle who can transport this franchise out of that darkness.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Patrick Kane powers another Blackhawks win

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Patrick Kane is unstoppable right now, and he continues to bring the Chicago Blackhawks with him.

Chicago couldn’t have been happy to see a 4-1 lead evaporate into a 4-4 tie against the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday. Overtime provided another opportunity for Kane to exert his dominance, though, as he netted the overtime game-winner.

Not a bad way for Mike Tirico to end his first NHL foray:

With that, Kane’s now on a 19-game point streak, and even if it was just for a little while, the Blackhawks climbed into a playoff spot. The Avalanche bumped them back out of the top eight by clobbering the Jets 7-1 later on Wednesday, but the difference is small enough that Chicago can gain some confidence.

With two goals, Kane’s ridiculous run is at a mind-boggling 16 goals and 26 assists for 42 points in those 19 games. That’s absurd stuff, even by the standards of this high-scoring season.

This isn’t his longest point streak ever, but it is Kane’s most explosive.

Kane’s now at a scorching 92 points in 60 games. Those 92 points stand as Kane’s second-highest ever, and with Chicago having 21 games remaining, his career-high of 106 from 2015-16 being in sight. The milestones continue to pile up, as Kane now sits at 350 career goals and eight OT tallies.

The Blackhawks improved to 26-26-9 on the season, giving them 61 points (25 regulation/overtime wins) in 61 games. The Blackhawks slipped back to outside the second wild-card spot, but the goal is within reach.

WC 1: Stars: 29-25-5, 63 points, 59 GP, 29 ROW
WC 2: Avalanche: 25-24-11, 61 points, 60 GP, 25 ROW

Blackhawks: 26-26-9, 61 points, 61 GP, 25 ROW
Wild: 27-27-6, 60 points, 60 GP, 26 ROW
Coyotes: 27-28-5, 59 points, 60 GP, 24 ROW
Canucks: 26-27-7, 59 points, 60 GP, 23 ROW
Ducks: 24-27-9, 57 points, 60 GP, 21 ROW

As you can see, the Avalanche have the same number of points and ROW, while holding a game in hand over Chicago. The Blackhawks also don’t have much of a buffer ahead of Minnesota, among the other bubble teams.

Even so, it’s pretty surreal that Chicago’s even in this spot, as they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games. You could say they’re almost as hot as Kane himself.

More: Could Blackhawks be a threat if they make the playoffs?

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Ducks hint at future by keeping, not trading, Silfverberg

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The Anaheim Ducks have taken Jakob Silfverberg off of the trade market with an unofficial five-year extension.

Reported details about the deal

Salary cap “tagging” issues could explain why the deal is unofficial – and could be unofficial until March – but various reporters (from The OC Register’s Elliott Teaford to Eric Stephens/Jon Cooper of The Athletic) confirm that the deal with Silfverberg, a 28-year-old who would have become an unrestricted free agent.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the cap hit will be $5.25 million beginning in 2019-20, backing up Cooper and Stephens’ report (sub required) that it would-be in the low-$5M range. Cooper/Stephens indicate that Silfverberg’s deal will include a modified 10-team no-trade clause, too.

Again, this can’t yet be made official because of how tight the Ducks are to their spending limits for 2019-20.

Was it wise to extend Silfverberg?

Cooper and Stephens went deep on the pros and cons of keeping Silfverberg versus trading him, and it’s indeed a conundrum.

On the bright side, Silfverberg is an effective player right now, to the point that a potential $5.25M cap hit could be a nice value for Anaheim. Silfverberg even compares respectably well to Matt Duchene if you zoom out to their work since 2016-17. This SKATR comparison chart (by Bill Comeau with Corsica data) captures some of that spirit:

This isn’t to say that Silfverberg = Duchene, mind you, just that Silfverberg is likely better than people may realize.

But what about the future?

Silfverberg is already 28, so if the Ducks go through a protracted rebuild, he could very well be suffering from a steep decline by the time Anaheim figures things out.

Would the Ducks have been better off moving on from a quality player, thus landing more assets for a trade? What if the Ducks had managed to trade Silfverberg, then later sign him as a free agent, a scenario “The Mayor” John Hoven discussed hypothetically earlier on Wednesday?

Ultimately, the Ducks decided to just keep Silfverberg. It’s a decision that’s complicated – but not outrageous – in a vacuum, but what about the team’s larger trade deadline outlook, and general future?

Rebuild challenges

Some teams, like the New York Rangers, see the writing on the wall and end up in a great position for a quick/medium-sized rebuild.

If you ask me, the Ducks’ situation is more complicated and challenging.

There are some nice players in Anaheim’s system, with Maxime Comtois, Troy Terry, and Sam Steel already getting some cups of coffee at the NHL level. Perhaps prospects-oriented Ducks fans will disagree with me here, but broadly speaking, it doesn’t seem like the Ducks have a ton of stars-in-waiting, though.

As a team that’s intended to contend, the Ducks aren’t brimming with picks. They don’t have any extra choices as of this writing, according to Cap Friendly’s handy charts, and lack a third-rounder in 2019, plus seventh-rounders in 2019 and 2020. That’s not disastrous, but rebuilding teams (short and long-term) would obviously prefer to have more than the default number of a pick in all seven rounds, not less.

The Ducks seem primed to possibly trade Ryan Miller, according to Hoven, and perhaps some other smaller names could be sent out to add some assets. Still, this isn’t a team that seems primed to charge high prices for blockbuster rentals.

Good and mostly bad about veterans

The Ducks are currently paying a lot of money for aging players on problem contracts, but the bright side is that those contracts aren’t too long-lasting.

Ryan Getzlaf is getting up there at 33, but his $8.25M cap hit expires after 2020-21. Not ideal, but his situation really only gets scary in conjunction with bigger problems: Corey Perry (33, $8.625M through 2020-21) and Ryan Kesler (34, $6.875M through 2021-22) make for an expensive, fading Big Three.

GM Bob Murray must ponder what to do with those deals. Buyouts could be considered for Perry and Kesler, although that would spread out the pain. Trading Kesler or Perry might require a bribe, while moving Getzlaf would be an enormous, difficult decision.

If the Ducks just have to swallow those costs, at least they aren’t seemingly unending contracts.

The good stuff

While there are signals for the Ducks to at least do a short-term rebuild – as much as they even can – you can talk yourself into this team being competitive.

John Gibson‘s extension begins in 2019-20 at a very affordable $6.4M, so if he remains an elite goalie, the Ducks can steal wins some nights. Gibson’s been incredible, to the point of altering Anaheim’s potential ceiling … but then again, we’ve seen goalies go from bargains to problems. Cory Schneider sticks out as one of the most uncomfortable examples.

The Ducks’ other strengths mostly come from a young, mostly modern-style fleet of defensemen. Plenty of other franchises would be giddy to have a core group of Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Cam Fowler, and Brandon Montour.

That defense plus Gibson plus – ideally – a great new coach could really brighten the Ducks’ outlook, and quickly.

Most likely, optimists in Anaheim picture this as the winning play for the Ducks:

  • Gibson continues to be superhuman most nights (a dangerous gamble – because goalies – yet Gibson’s been the real deal so far).
  • That defense makes Gibson’s life easier and boosts a so-so group of forwards.
  • Silfverberg and especially Rickard Rakell combine with the likes of Terry and Steel to take on more of the scoring burden, while Getzlaf remains a beast.
  • The worst-case scenarios don’t play out for Kesler/Perry.

Such a scenario isn’t … impossible, right? Especially if this team had been underachieving under an overmatched coach in recently fired Randy Carlyle?

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The thing is, the Ducks likely boxed themselves into something of a corner. That’s not fun, yet it’s also the price of doing business when you want to win it all.

And, to reiterate, there are teams in bigger binds. Where other teams are conjoined to parasitic contracts for frightening terms, the worst stuff can dissolve for the Ducks in a few years. The Silfverberg extension seems to signal that the franchise hopes that they can stick more or less to the current blueprint, but simply execute better in the future.

It doesn’t necessarily mean that this will be an easy juggling act, though.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.