Tag: markets for new NHL teams

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Where Business Journal’s rankings for NHL feasibility miss the mark


Yesterday we took a look at Business Journal’s financial rankings to see which cities would be most fiscally capable of bringing the NHL to town. Cities like Houston and Las Vegas made the cut in impressive fashion while Canadian places like Quebec City and Hamilton were viewed as borderline possibilities as homes for the NHL.

While their rankings were financially based as far as how much money those cities have and ticket prices and their own methodology on things, having the money is only part of the equation as we’ve  seen already. After all, Atlanta ranked 11th on their list and is viewed as a sufficient city to play host to an NHL team. We’re not likely to see that happen again any time soon (or ever) but having good ownership and a consistently large fan base is what makes the biggest difference.

But when you see Riverside-San Bernadino, California rank out as the top city capable of hosting an NHL team while places like Quebec City (31st) and Hamilton, Ontario (33rd) are viewed as “borderline” there’s something amiss here. Sure we’ve seen the Kings be a success in southern California and the Ducks, while a bit off in attendance, have won a Stanley Cup, but would you run the risk of putting a team there just because the money exists there? No way.

The part where their ranking system fails is that it doesn’t take into account where the hockey fans are. Are there hockey fans in all these  cities? Sure there are, hockey love exists all over the place. But like Atlanta showed, even the most loyal of the die hard fans can’t keep a team there forever. Hell, the die hard fans in Phoenix might not be able to keep the Coyotes there with or without an owner and Phoenix is one of the biggest television markets in the United States.

It’s hard to take a ranking system seriously that puts cities that have AHL teams that struggle to draw fans ahead of a former NHL city that’s having a new arena built so as to attract an NHL team for relocation. Cities like Albany, NY ranked 23rd on this list and their AHL team was last in attendance in the league. Meanwhile Bridgeport-Stamford, CT was 3rd, Rochester, NY was 16th,  and Worcester, Massachusetts was 26th while all their teams are in the bottom ten in the AHL in attendance. If your city can’t come out and support hockey at the minor league level in a big way, that doesn’t bode well for a potential future as an NHL home.

Nordiques fans from Quebec City were able to bring one to two-thirds the number of fans the Albany Devils would draw on a regular night to games on Long Island and in New Jersey to show that they’ve still got the kinds of fans that want the NHL. With the economy being the way it is in the United States and the issues that can present to fans and owners alike, if teams are going to relocate or if there’s going to be (gulp) expansion, it’d make far more sense to go to where the fans are already there en masse.

The NHL tried to spread their footprint across America with their relocation and expansion efforts in the 90s and early 2000s and while some of those have worked out well, others are hurting or struggling still. While ownership issues helped force teams out of Winnipeg, Hartford, and Quebec City to places like Phoenix, Denver, and North Carolina the NHL would be wise to consider going to places where teams will instantly thrive.

So far the relocation movement back into Winnipeg is proving to be a success and with the rabid fan base there, things should thrive. If the Coyotes or Islanders or Blue Jackets are to run into major issues in the future that will force them to seek a new home, here’s to hoping that the NHL won’t be blinded by the potential dollars might be and go to where the money will continuously flow thanks to having a hardcore fan base already in place.

Houston and Las Vegas rank among Business Journal’s top markets for an NHL team

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In the grand scheme of things, the NHL’s landing back in Winnipeg has been a smashing success so far. That being said, there are more than a few people who are skeptical about the Jets’ long-term future for the simple fact that they play in a small market. Optimists counter that the passion level is high enough that a limited market won’t doom the revamp.

Of course, the ex-Atlanta Thrashers weren’t the only team in danger of relocating, which generates plenty of discussion about which markets might be the next one(s) to receive an NHL team. The most common duo are usually two Canadian markets: Hamilton, Ontario and Quebec City. Once you get down to the United States markets, Kansas City and Seattle have been hot topics lately, whether that attention is justified or not.

American markets score well in one study of potential NHL markets

The Business Journals’ On Numbers tried to tackle the question of which markets are ideal for an NHL team based on the total personal income of a given market’s population. Riverside-San Bernardino (California) ranked number one while Houston, Bridgeport-Stamford (Connecticut), Las Vegas, Virginia Beach-Norfolk, Providence, Austin, Hartford, Sacramento and Richmond rounded out the top 10. There were 22 markets that met the Biz Journal’s benchmark total personal income base of $37.6 billion, with Atlanta* (11th place), San Antonio (14th), Portland (19) and Seattle (20) being among the most interesting markets.. The biggest shocker might be the inclusion of Honolulu, Hawaii at the 15 spot.

Meanwhile, Quebec City came in at 31 and Hamilton, Ontario earned a 33rd place ranking, with both markets earning a “borderline” label and a score of 80 on the study’s capacity index (the top 22 all hit 100).

source: Getty ImagesPros and cons of the study

There are obvious flaws to this study since it fails to measure a market’s history with the sport (I’m having trouble picturing hula dancers at a hockey game), the availability of an NHL-ready arena, the probability of finding reliable local ownership and the general hunger for hockey.

That being said, there are some positives to take away from the study, as well. The economic situations of cities in and around Hartford make the dreams of a Whalers rebirth seem reasonable. Houston looks like strange place for the NHL in some ways – especially since the team would face opposition from the professional teams that have already been established – but they obviously have some history with hockey in the form of the Aeros. There are many who believe that the NHL might bring the first major professional sports team to Las Vegas, although there are obvious risks when it comes to gambling and basing a franchise in Sin City in general. Seattle and Portland could be nice fits from a geographic standpoint, with Seattle being especially interesting since an NHL team might be able to heal some of the wounds caused by the heartbreaking loss of the NBA’s Sonics.

The Biz Journals might call Quebec City “borderline,” but they’re obviously one of the first markets in line for a relocated/new team (if they can get a new arena built). The bottom line is that they’re a promising market for an NHL rebirth for reasons that go beyond income.

Either way, the list is an interesting read, even if the methodology looks at just one piece of the puzzle (albeit a big one). Feel free to discuss which markets might make the most sense for relocation or expansion (yikes) in the comments.

* – Say what you will about Atlanta, Thrashers fans blame mismanagement by the Atlanta Spirit as the primary cause for the team’s demise. One cannot help but wonder if the NHL might give the Georgia market a third try in, say, 20-30 years if a reliable owner surfaces.

(H/T to Puck Daddy.)