P.K. Subban

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Jacob Trouba could really make Jets pay with next contract

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This post is part of Jets Day on PHT…

Here’s something you come to realize if you nerd out about the league’s salary cap for long enough: not all bargain contracts are created equal.

Now, look, any GM worth his salt should be able to take advantage of those precious windows where players are exceeding the value of their deals. The 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks are the gold standard in that regard: they won that first contemporary Stanley Cup thanks in part to Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane being on the last year of their rookie deals, allowing them that extra Dustin Byfuglien here and Brian Campbell there.

If a player is talented and healthy enough, you’ll eventually need to pay up. That’s why there’s some serious wisdom to locking down talented guys to longer deals when they’re especially young. (Just look at how ridiculous the deals look for, say, John Tavares and Duncan Keith.)

The Winnipeg Jets faced some serious contract impasses with Jacob Trouba and his agent Kurt Overhardt, yet eventually they enjoyed an eye-popping bargain. With the risk of sitting out a season hanging over his head, the RFA leverage was too much for Trouba, who signed for two years and $5 million.

Even with things oddly prorated, that’s a ludicrous steal for Trouba. And, of course, everyone said all the right things when a deal was reached, even as trade rumors festered into November 2016.

“I’ve committed to sign here,” Trouba said while confirming he’s rescinded his trade request, per the Winnipeg Sun. “When I signed that piece of paper, everything changed in my mind.”

A pessimist – and, possibly, a realist – might amend that last bit to “everything changed in my mind … for now.” (Possibly adding in some ominous music.)

When it comes to tough negotiations, we’ve seen some examples of short “bridge” deals that end up costly, and sometimes those same players end up traded somewhere else.

If you’re an emotionally vulnerable Jets fan, maybe just console yourself with Trouba remaining an RFA and scroll to a different post, because these examples might be less than ideal:

P.K. Subban: misses some of 2012-13, signs two-year, $5.75M deal with Montreal. Then he gets $9M per season for eight years, and traded to Nashville before 2016-17.

Ryan O'Reilly: strenuous negotiations lead to $6M at two years, making things awkward with the likes of Matt Duchene. Now makes $7.5M per year with Buffalo after being traded.

Ryan Johansen: Another Overhardt client whose relationship soured with his team. He was ultimately traded to Nashville, where he makes $8M per year thanks to that new deal.

(Note: Overhardt also represented Kyle Turris, who eventually left the Arizona Coyotes, who must wince every time he scores a big goal for the Ottawa Senators. As evidence that there’s another way, Overhardt appears to be Viktor Arvidsson‘s agent, so it’s not like he’ll outright refuse to sign longer deals that might ultimately benefit the teams involved. Of course, Arvidsson never had that contract-dispute-baggage with Nashville so …)

Now, before you claim that Trouba is far below those players, note that he has a season to compile more impressive counting stats with superior defensive partner(s) …. and he already shows potential from a “fancy stats” perspective. He seems to settle nicely into the top defenseman prototype, by HERO chart measures, as just one example:

With the right opportunities, Trouba could really drive up his value. Such motivation could be very beneficial for Winnipeg in 2017-18, but at what cost in the future?

In a recent edition of “The Hockey PDOcast,” Garret Hohl hypothesized that, while Trouba may compare to the likes of Seth Jones, he might end up costing the Jets more than the $5.4M per year that Jones receives with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Beyond sheer inflation, one might ascribe some of that to something of a bitterness tax. The Jets got their bargain and won that battle, but much like with Subban and others, a talented player might just win the war.

With a new deal in Dallas, Radulov must prove himself once again

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This post is part of Stars Day on PHT…

Alex Radulov returned from the KHL, had a productive season while exciting hockey fans in Montreal, and then cashed in on a long-term contract with the Dallas Stars.

It was argued in February by Washington’s head coach Barry Trotz that Radulov was “maybe the best signing of the year,” which Habs general manager Marc Bergevin deserved credit for during a period of controversy in his tenure thanks to the P.K. Subban trade.

One season is all Radulov spent with the Habs, scoring 18 goals and 54 points, finishing second on the team in total scoring.

He then turned that into a five-year deal worth $31.25 million with the Stars — the contract announced two days before his 31st birthday. He’s now the third highest paid forward in Dallas, per CapFriendly. It’s a large sum of money for a player that will be nearing his 36th birthday when the contract expires.

For the Stars, it’s the addition of a forward they’ll hope can have an immediate impact on an already skilled team at a time when Dallas is in its window to win. The moves general manager Jim Nill has made this summer would certainly suggest the time is now for this group of players he has assembled.

Based on reports, term was what separated the Canadiens and Radulov during their contract talks. Much will be made about the microscope Nill will be under following such an active offseason — this deal included — and missing the playoffs in 2017. There will be considerable pressure on Radulov to perform, as well, under this new contract.

It sounds like Radulov could get the opportunity to start on the wing with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, at least based on comments coach Ken Hitchcock made earlier this summer. If so, that should give their prized free agent signing the best chance to be successful.

“I’ve coached against Radulov both in the NHL and internationally, and he brings an intensity to the game,” said Hitchcock. “You notice him and you have to account for him. Now, put Jamie Benn on the other wing, and you have the same thing. You know he’s there, and you know you have to account for him. Same with Seguin.

“I just think they will all feed off of each other if that’s the line we come up with.”

There is always risk in signing any free agent to a new team.

There are the usual questions: How will they handle a different market? How quickly can they adjust to a different coach? Different system? Different linemates? The Stars have placed their bets on a few key players this summer, with the additions of Ben Bishop, Marc Methot and Martin Hanzal.

Radulov, at a $6.25 million cap hit per season, is the most expensive.

Radulov was able to prove himself with the Habs. Trotz was certainly on to something with his comments this past winter.

With greater term and salary, Radulov will need to do it again in Dallas. If he does, it could help lead to a lofty reward for the Stars.

Poll: Are Preds favorites in West?

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This post is part of Predators Day on PHT…

The Nashville Predators qualified for the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs as the second Wild Card team in the Western Conference. But it’s not about where you start, it’s where you finish, and the Preds made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.

Led by a phenomenal group of defensemen like Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm, the Predators were able to knock off the Blackhawks, Blues and Ducks before losing to the Penguins in six games.

Now, it’ll be interesting to see if they’re able to translate the Stanley Cup run into regular-season dominance and more postseason success.

As of right now, they still have the same top four defensemen on their roster. They also added former Canadiens blue liner Alexei Emelin to fold.

Also, don’t forget that on top getting acclimated to his new surroundings last year, Subban also missed 16 games with an upper-body injury. If his postseason success carries over into the regular season, you can expect him to be a whole lot better in 2017-18.

Up front, GM David Poile was able to add a few interesting pieces via free agency. Nick Bonino, who is coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with Pittsburgh, will add some quality depth down the middle. His two-way style should make him an ideal candidate to center the second or third line.

Poile also signed veteran Scott Hartnell, who was bought out by the Blue Jackets. He’s back in Nashville after spending the first six years of his NHL career there. The veteran winger had 13 goals and 37 points in 78 games with Columbus last season.

Are those moves enough to propel them to another Stanley Cup Final berth in 2018? Well, lets look at the competition.

On paper, the Chicago Blackhawks seemed to have taken a step back this offseason, as they traded away Artemi Panarin, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Scott Darling and Marcus Kruger. Marian Hossa has a mysterious allergy that will keep him out for the year, and Brian Campbell hung up his skates to join the team’s front office.

The San Jose Sharks were able to re-sign Joe Thornton, but they lost Patrick Marleau to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Other than losing Marleau, their roster hasn’t changed too much this summer.

Like the Sharks, the Anaheim Ducks didn’t make a huge acquisition this offseason. They managed to retain potential free agent Patrick Eaves, who they acquired from Dallas at the deadline. Still, they should be plenty competitive in the West this season.

The Edmonton Oilers ended their long playoff drought last spring thanks to Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot. Edmonton swapped Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome and they signed Jussi Jokinen in free agency. All things considered, the Oilers should be ready to make a run, but how far can this young group go?

The Calgary Flames are another intriguing team. They got off to a slow start last season, but their roster eventually came to life and it’s easy to see why. They’re loaded with quality defensemen like Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic, who they got from the Islanders during the draft. They also have Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk  leading the way up front.

The Stars went into last season with plenty of expectation, but they ultimately missed the mark completely by not even making the playoffs. This summer, they added goalie Ben Bishop and winger Alexander Radulov. Those two moves should help them get back on track.

The Minnesota Wild got off to a great start last year, but they weren’t able to sustain that once the playoffs came around. On paper, they still have a very talented roster that could compete with any team in the conference.

The St. Louis Blues went through a bit of a transition phase last season, but they still managed to finish in the top three of their division. It might be a bit of a stretch to consider them as legit candidates to win the West, but they aren’t far off.

How do the Predators stack up against these teams? Are they the favorites to make it to the Stanley Cup Final?

Alright, I’m turning things over to you. Cast your vote in our poll and feel free to leave your opinion in the comments section below.

It’s Nashville Predators day at PHT

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The Nashville Predators entered the 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs as the second wild card team in the Western Conference.

When the postseason was over, they were two wins away from a championship, sweeping Chicago in the opening round and beating St. Louis and Anaheim to reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Along the way there was the breakout campaign of Viktor Arvidsson while on a top line with Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg; the emergence of a dangerous top-four group of defensemen following the acquisition of P.K. Subban last summer; a fishy hockey tradition and playoff atmosphere that garnered national headlines, and the recognition of general manager David Poile for his efforts in putting together a Stanley Cup contender that will remain in its window to win next season, and likely for a few more years given the age of their core players.

There have been changes in Nashville this summer.

James Neal was selected by the Golden Knights in the expansion draft. Mike Fisher announced his retirement. Colin Wilson was traded to Colorado. Phil Housley, an assistant coach responsible for Nashville’s group of blue liners, took the head coaching job in Buffalo.

To bolster their club at center, the Predators signed Nick Bonino to a four-year, $16.4 million contract — just a few weeks after his former team, the Penguins, hoisted the Stanley Cup in Nashville. They also signed veteran forward Scott Hartnell and acquired defenseman Alexei Emelin.

Today at PHT, we’ll dig into the big storylines surrounding the Predators ahead of training camp next month.

Habs have available cap space to help remedy pressing roster needs

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This post is part of Canadiens Day on PHT…

It’s been a particularly interesting time for Marc Bergevin as general manager of the Montreal Canadiens.

It really snowballed in June of 2016 with the P.K. Subban trade and the fallout from that, and has continued this offseason with a trade for Jonathan Drouin to help bring additional scoring to Montreal, the loss of Alex Radulov and Andrei Markov, and signing goalie Carey Price to an eight-year, $84 million contract extension that kicks in for the 2018-19 season.

Losing Radulov takes an offensively gifted player out of the lineup, while the club paid a massive amount of money to keep Price in Montreal through 2026.

There were many question marks for Bergevin and the Habs this summer. As discussed earlier today at PHT, one of the biggest dilemmas they may face is up the middle and much of that may depend on the continued development and usage of Alex Galchenyuk.

Yet, Bergevin may still be able to address that before the start of the regular season.

Montreal has about $8.46 million available in cap space, not to mention an additional second-round pick previously belonging to the Chicago Blackhawks, according to CapFriendly.

On the prospect of Bergevin perhaps making another move, Elliotte Friedman recently had some interesting comments to the NHL Network, according to FanRagSports:

“I think you guys a few minutes ago played the key clip, and that is that (Markov) was asked to wait until September or October,” said Friedman. “I get the impression that you’ve got Marc Bergevin sitting here with a lot of cap space and I think he’s sitting on something, or some ideas. And I’m not necessarily saying that he’s going to do something big, but I think he’s dreaming big.

“You talked about the trade earlier this year – the Sergachev-for-Drouin deal – I don’t think that trade happens if they aren’t trying to do something after what was a nightmare year for them last year to change the impression of the organization in the province.”

The Habs will enter next season after a first-round playoff exit to the New York Rangers. Of the 16 teams that qualified for the postseason, Montreal had the third worst scoring average, at 1.83 goals-for per game.

This season is likely to come with added pressure for both the Canadiens and Bergevin.

Price, who turns 30 years old next Wednesday, is in the final year of his current contract that has a still reasonable $6.5 million cap hit. When his new deal kicks in, his cap hit will rise to $10.5 million, which means him and Shea Weber will account for $18.35 million against the cap. That amounts to 24 per cent of the current $75 million ceiling in place for the 2017-18 campaign.

“There’s a saying we use: Goalies are not important until you don’t have one,” Bergevin told the Montreal Gazette last month.

“I’ve seen what’s going on around the league with teams who are looking for goaltenders and it’s really hard to do. So it’s a position that’s hard to find and we have in my opinion, in our opinion, one of the best in the business if not the best, so we’re going to keep him and make sure he’s here for the rest of his career.”

That took care of one long-term need.

The Habs still have others heading into the upcoming season, like possibly having to find a No. 1 center, or finding another talented player to improve this team offensively. The available cap space adds another level of intrigue.