Kris Russell

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Cap crunch: The teams set up for long-term success, and the ones that are doomed

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If you were trying to project a potential 2018 Stanley Cup Final matchup at this moment two of the teams at the top of your list should probably be the Tampa Bay Lightning and Nashville Predators.

They are currently two of the best teams in the league (first and fourth in points percentage respectively) with the Lightning running away with the Presidents’ Trophy race and the Predators less than a year removed from actually being in the Stanley Cup Final.

Hopefully you enjoy watching them play because given the roster construction of both teams they both have a chance to be really good, for a really long time.

Looking at both rosters it is incredible to see not only how much talent they both have, but how much of it is already signed to long-term contracts. While the Lightning will have to deal with new contracts for restricted free agents Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov, and the Predators will have to deal with unrestricted free agencies for Pekka Rinne and Ryan Ellis, there aren’t really any other significant core players that will eligible for unrestricted free agency at any point over the next three years.

Their cores are in place for the long haul and both teams are in pretty strong shape when it comes to building within the constraints of the salary cap.

But how do they compare to the rest of the league?

Let’s take a look at some of the teams that are in the best — and worst — shape when it comes to their long-term outlook under the salary cap.

I tried to take into account how many players are signed long-term for each team, what those salary cap commitments are, the age of the players that are currently signed long-term, and what new contracts are going to need to be signed in the coming seasons.

Some of the more notable teams…

No team is in a better position than the Predators

Let’s start with the Predators, because there might not be a team in the NHL that is better set up for sustained long-term success than them.

They already have 13 players under contract for the 2019-20 season, more than any other team in the league. Eight of those players are signed through 2020-21 (tied for second most in the league) and seven of them are signed through at least 2021-22 (tied for most in the league). What’s amazing about those number isn’t just the quantity of players under contract that far in advance, but also the quality of said and how affordable they all are against the cap.

In the table below we see the teams that already have the biggest cap commitments for 2019-20, how much money they have invested in those players, how many players they have signed, how old those players will be that season, as well as the cost per player. The Predators already have more than $53 million committed to players for the 2019-20 season, which is the fifth largest number in the league at this point. Seems like a lot. But look at not only how many players they signed for that season (more than any other team in the league — and one of only five teams that has more than 10 players signed), but also the quality of those players, how little they are signed for, and how young they all still are.

That $4.14 million per player is the third lowest number of any team in the league as far as current 2019-20 commitments go(behind only the New York Islanders and Arizona Coyotes) while those players will have an average age of only 28.8 (11th youngest).

The players they have signed through at least 2019-20: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, Victor Arvidsson, Craig Smith, Kyle Turris, Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok, Auston Watson, P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin. That is a hell of a core (three outstanding centers down the middle; three outstanding defenseman including a potential Norris Trophy winner this season) and not only leaves them with only complementary roster spots that need to be filled in the coming years, but what should be plenty of salary cap space to do it.

The only players eligible for unrestricted free agency before 2021 are Scott Hartnell, Cody McLeod, Alexei Emelin, Pekka Rinne, Ryan Ellis and Anthony Bitetto.

Rinne and Ellis are obviously the two big ones, but both are still signed through at least next season.

When you take into account the age of their core, how good it is, and how long it is locked in place it is hard to argue that there is a team in the league set up for better long-term success than the Predators.

Things look pretty good in Florida … for both teams

Seriously. Both teams.

As mentioned above Tampa Bay is in a pretty good position as well with Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Alex Killorn all signed long-term. Things are going to get tight in the very near future with some big restricted free agents, but the core guys are locked in and they are all still at an age where they can be the foundation of a great team for a long, long time.

The team that kind of a surprised me a bit was the Florida Panthers, and while it might be easy to dismiss them because of the past season-and-a-half, some of the most important pieces are already in place.

At the moment they have Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad, Nick Bjugstad, Keith Yandle, Michael Matheson and both goalies signed for at least the next four years. Six of those players are still age 24 or younger, and there are a lot of really good players within that group.

Huberdeau, Barkov and Trocheck are all scoring at close to a point-per-game pace this season, while Barkov has blossomed into one of the best two-way centers in the league.

The results aren’t there yet on a team level, but the hardest pieces to get (top line players) are already in place.

With a few of the right tweaks around the edges this could be a pretty good team in short order. It’s just a matter of making the right moves to complement them. That is sometimes easier said than done.

Toronto, Winnipeg and the Islanders have some work to do

These teams aren’t necessarily in trouble, but their front offices have a lot of work to do in the next couple of years.

At the moment all of them are in really good shape under the salary cap in the short-term because they have minimal long-term commitments.

But look at who needs to be signed for each team in the coming years:

Toronto: James van Riemsdyk (UFA after this season), Tyler Bozak (UFA after this season), William Nylander (RFA after this season), Mitch Marner (RFA after next season), Auston Matthews (RFA after next season), Jake Gardiner (UFA after next season).

Winnipeg: Tobias Enstrom (UFA after this season), Jacob Trouba (RFA after this season), Blake Wheeler (UFA after next season), Patrik Laine (RFA after next season), Kyle Connor (RFA after next season).

New York Islanders: John Tavares, Josh Bailey, Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, Jaroslav Halak (All UFA after this season); Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle (both UFA after next season).

Those are all major players and that salary cap space is going to disappear. Quickly. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

There is always a panic when teams have to pay big money to their star players and how much salary cap space they take up, but it’s not uncommon. Pittsburgh, Chicago and Los Angeles have shown us over the past decade that teams can win Stanley Cups (multiple Stanley Cups, too) with significant chunks of their salary cap going to a small number of players. The problem Chicago is going to run into in the future (and we discussed this here a few weeks ago) is that a lot of their core players are starting to get older. Pittsburgh will get there eventually, too. That’s a small price to pay for multiple Stanley Cups in a short window. Keep the superstars even if it it’s expensive and rebuild the depth around them. It’s a hell of a lot easier to find another third-line center or second-pairing defenseman than it is to find another Sidney Crosby or Auston Matthews.

That brings us to…

The Oilers

We’ve already concluded that the 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers are a raging inferno of a dumpster fire and there doesn’t seem to be anything that is going to put it out. They have wasted Connor McDavid‘s cheapest years and now the people that couldn’t build a winner with him on an entry level contract have to try and do so with him making $12 million per season.

Looking a few years into the future the Oilers are already the near the top of the league in terms of future financial commitments. In 2019-20, for example, the only two teams that have more financial commitments that season are the Los Angeles Kings and Pittsburgh Penguins.

There are 13 teams that have either as many players signed (nine players) as the Oilers currently do, or more.

That means the Oilers have some massive contracts on their books.

McDavid is going to start making $12 million a year next season. Leon Draisaitl is making $8.5 million a year already. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins makes $6 million a year. They have a bunch of defensemen  of varying skill levels signed for multiple years.

The Oilers’ future issues are a lesson when it comes to roster construction in the salary cap era. It’s not the superstars that cause salary cap issues. It’s paying a combined $10 million a year to an aging Milan Lucic and Kris Russell that causes salary cap issues. Those issues are only magnified when you trade Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson and Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome so you can sign Milan Lucic and Kris Russell.

The Red Wings Are Doomed

I really don’t want to overstate things here, but the Red Wings are a mess.

Remember that table we looked at up above with the Predators for two years in advance? Well, take a look at the Red Wings on that list. They already have more than $44 million committed to eight players for 2019-20. For a team that is already in the bottom half of the league in terms of performance that is a lot of long-term commitments, and it’s even worse than it seems because all of them are old (by NHL standards).

The players signed through the end of 2019-20 in Detroit: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Tatar, Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, and Trevor Daley.

Here is that same table sorted by average age for players under contract in 2019.

Bad, expensive, and old is no way to build a team.

Even if you remove Henrik Zetterberg from that list (he will be 39 in 2019-20) the Red Wings would still have the highest average age in terms of commitments for that season. Astonishing.

The handful of good young players on the team (Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou) will all be restricted free agents after this season. All will certainly be re-signed and get raises. But it’s the long-term deals to players in the late 20s and 30s that are going to be killer.

(All salary, salary cap data via capfriendly.com)

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

WATCH LIVE: Oilers vs. Predators on NBCSN

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PROJECTED LINES

Edmonton Oilers

Forwards

Patrick MaroonConnor McDavidLeon Draisaitl

Milan LucicRyan Nugent-HopkinsJesse Puljujarvi

Jujhar KhairaRyan StromeMichael Cammalleri

Drake CaggiulaMark LetestuZack Kassian

Defenseman

Andrej SekeraKris Russell

Darnell NurseAdam Larsson

Oscar KlefbomMatt Benning

Starting goalie: Cam Talbot

NHL on NBCSN: Oilers hoping ‘bounces’ start going their way vs. Predators

Nashville Predators 

Forwards

Pontus AbergRyan JohansenViktor Arvidsson

Kevin FialaKyle TurrisCraig Smith

Scott HartnellNick BoninoColton Sissons

Miikka SalomakiCalle JarnkrokAustin Watson

Defenseman

Roman JosiRyan Ellis

Mattias EkholmP.K. Subban

Alexei EmelinYannick Weber

Starting goalie: Pekka Rinne

Oilers missing playoffs would be spectacular failure

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The Edmonton Oilers have had a lot of bad seasons over the past 12 years, but this one has to be the most frustrating, most disappointing, and quite frankly, the biggest failure out of them all.

Entering 2017-18 as one of the top favorites to win the Stanley Cup, it’s probably not too soon to close the book on their season.

After getting blown out for the second game in a row this weekend, dropping a 4-1 decision in Chicago, the Oilers remain in 13th place in the Western Conference and are eight points out of a playoff spot with 39 games remaining ahead of them. It is almost impossible to imagine them making up that much ground — and jumping over five teams — in that amount of time.

With the final wild card team in the West currently on a 94-point pace, the Oilers would need to collect 56 points the rest of the way to pass that. That would be a 118-point pace over 82 games, meaning the Oilers would need to pretty much be the best team in hockey the rest of the way just to get the second wild card spot.

After losing seven out of their past eight games, a stretch that has seen them be outscored 28-10 (including 20-4 in the past five games), it is almost impossible to see it happening.

It is a stunning fall in such a short amount of time for a team that was one game away from reaching the Western Conference Finals and has the league MVP and scoring champion (and arguably the league’s best player!) in Connor McDavid on its roster.

It is that second point that makes this season such a failure for the Oilers.

Keep in mind that in the post-Original Six era there have only been three teams that have had the reigning league MVP on their roster have missed the playoffs. The 2015-16 Montreal Canadiens (Carey Price), the 2011-12 Anaheim Ducks (Corey Perry) and the 2002-03 Canadiens (Jose Theodore).

In the case of the two Canadiens teams it’s at least somewhat understandable given who the MVPs were and how those teams won. Both teams were largely dependent on the success of the two goalies, while Price missed all but 11 games following his MVP season due to injury. Theodore simply experienced a massive regression and was not able to put the team on his back the way he did in his MVP season.

But this Oilers team? With Connor McDavid?

There is no excuse for this.

McDavid is a generational talent, and even worse for the Oilers, is still on his entry level contract this season. That means they are still getting one of the biggest steals in the league against the salary cap and they have surrounded him with … this.

Their special teams are a mess. The goaltending has failed them as Cam Talbot has been run into the ground the past two years with no solid backup behind him. They still have no scoring depth beyond McDavid’s line. At some point if the season continues on this path you have to imagine that a coaching change will be considered. That is always the first move that gets made when a seemingly talented team with sky high expectations underachieves.

The issue here is still with construction of the roster and what seems to be a desire to build a heavy, physical hockey team in a league that is now all about speed, skating and skill.

It is about the way the team has squandered talented players like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle in trades by selling them off in one-for-one deals that did not bring back anything close to equal value. Heaven help Oilers fans when the same thing inevitably happens with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Given Peter Chiarelli’s track record with trades you can almost guarantee that it will.

With McDavid just starting to enter his prime years and still dirt cheap, this should have been a season where the Oilers were set to take another big step forward. That’s what you do with a superstar that still takes up almost none of your salary cap space.

In year three with Sidney Crosby the Pittsburgh Penguins were in the Stanley Cup Final, one year away from winning it. In year three with Patrick Kane the Chicago Blackhawks actually won the Stanley Cup. In year three with Alex Ovechkin the Washington Capitals were division champions and barreling toward being one of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. In year three with Steven Stamkos the Tampa Bay Lightning were in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now the Oilers are not only on their way to missing the playoffs for the second time in three years with McDavid, they are set to head into next season with already more than $60 million in salary cap space committed to just 13 players. And it’s not the big contracts to McDavid and Leon Draisaitl that are causing that cap crunch. You have to keep them and you have to pay them.

It is the $6 million to a Milan Lucic here and the $4 million to a Kris Russell there that eats it up fast.

That is what is going to make it awfully difficult to build any sort of depth around McDavid.

The biggest question out of all of this: Do you trust the current management team to figure out a way to make it work?

They were not able to do it when the best player in the league was costing them peanuts against the salary cap.

It is hard to see how they can do it when he is making his market value.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Kings exploit Oilers’ errors for lopsided victory

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The beginning of 2018 is looking a lot like the end of 2017 for both the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings.

That’s great for the surprisingly effective Kings. They might struggle to gain ground on the even-more-surprising Vegas Golden Knights, but for an L.A. team that looked to be in steep decline, wins like Tuesday’s 5-0 victory against the Oilers push them closer to a playoff return. And, hey, maybe they’ll lock down at least a round of home-ice advantage.

For Edmonton, a confidence-boosting four-game winning streak now looks like a blip on the radar, as they’ve matched it with a four-game losing streak.

The last two victories have been especially rough, falling 5-0 to the Winnipeg Jets and 5-0 to the Kings. They’ve only generated a single standings point during this skid, so this isn’t one of those slumps that actually ends up being prettier than it might first seem.

In the case of Tuesday’s game, the score was a little misleading, yet that actually might turn the knife in deeper.

This was a well-played, tight contest about halfway through, with Connor McDavid and others almost tying things up after a nice Andy Andreoff 1-0 goal. Patrick Maroon ended up delivering the death blow to his team with a bad hit on Drew Doughty; the Kings ended up scoring a resounding three goals on the ensuing five-minute major penalty.

Doughty was able to play at least a bit during the third period, so the Kings might dodge a bullet (and Maroon might enjoy higher odds of avoiding a suspension). Whatever happens as far as a possible injury or suspension goes, L.A. can happily brag about taking full advantage of Maroon’s mistake.

A second Dustin Brown goal made it 5-0, putting extra salt in Edmonton’s wounds, but one wonders how different this game might have been if Maroon didn’t deliver that unnecessary, high hit.

That’s part of the narrative with this Oilers, team, though: they’ve had a sad penchant for unforced errors. Kris Russell‘s own-goal cost Edmonton a standings point, if not a win, against the Maple Leafs. Maroon’s major was hugely negative tonight. Bad trades arguably deprived this team of crucial depth.

Three of these four losses have come in Edmonton, and the Oilers are at risk of losing every contest during a four-game homestand. With five straight road games after that, things could get awfully grim for the Oilers once again.

Edmonton has to hope that 2018 doesn’t continue as it begins. The Kings wouldn’t mind, though, especially if Doughty ends up being fine.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

WATCH LIVE: Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers

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PROJECTED LINES

FORWARDS
Tanner PearsonAnze KopitarDustin Brown
Marian GaborikAdrian KempeTyler Toffoli
Kyle CliffordNick ShoreTrevor Lewis
Alex IafalloTorrey MitchellJussi Jokinen

DEFENSE
Jake MuzzinDrew Doughty
Kurtis MacDermidAlec Martinez
Derek Forbort – Kevin Gravel

Starting goalie: Jonathan Quick

[NHL On NBCSN: Penguins, Oilers need to start turning things around now]

FORWARDS
Milan LucicConnor McDavidJesse Puljujarvi
Juhar Khaira – Leon DraisaitlRyan Strome
Patrick MaroonRyan Nugent-HopkinsDrake Caggiula
Anton SlepyshevMark LetestuZack Kassian

DEFENSE
Darnell NurseAdam Larsson
Andrej SekeraKris Russell
Oscar KlefbomBrandon Davidson

Starting goalie: Cam Talbot