Erik Karlsson

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Bovada gives McDavid higher odds than Crosby to win Hart in 2017-18

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In handing Connor McDavid an eight-year, $100 million extension, the Edmonton Oilers essentially are paying the 20-year-old star based on the assumption that he’ll provide MVP-quality play.

At least one Vegas oddsmaker agrees, as Bovada tabbed McDavid as the favorite to win the Hart Trophy, edging Sidney Crosby.

That’s interesting, yet it might be even more interesting to note where other players fall in the rankings. Auston Matthews coming in third is particularly intriguing.

Who are some of the more interesting choices? The 20/1 range seems appealing, as Carey Price is one of the few goalies with the notoriety to push for such honors while John Tavares has the skill and financial motivation to produce the best work of his career next season.

Anyway, entertain yourself with those odds, via Bovada: (Quick note: Bovada originally had Artemi Panarin listed as still playing with Chicago. PHT went ahead and fixed that in the bit below.)

2017 – 2018 – Who will win the Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s Most Valuable Player?
Connor McDavid (EDM)                         3/2
Sidney Crosby (PIT)                              5/2
Auston Matthews (TOR)                         17/2
Alex Ovechkin (WAS)                            9/1
Patrick Kane (CHI)                                 14/1
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)                       15/1
Evgeni Malkin (PIT)                                16/1
Carey Price (MON)                                 20/1
John Tavares (NYI)                                20/1
Jamie Benn (DAL)                                 25/1
Steven Stamkos (TB)                             25/1
Erik Karlsson (OTT)                               33/1
Nikita Kucherov (TB)                              33/1
Jack Eichel (BUF)                                  50/1
Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)                               50/1
Patrik Laine (WPG)                                50/1
Brad Marchand (BOS)                            50/1
Tyler Seguin (DAL)                                50/1
Nicklas Backstrom (WAS)                      60/1
Brent Burns (SJ)                                    60/1
Braden Holtby (WAS)                            60/1
Phil Kessel (PIT)                                    60/1
Artemi Panarin (CBJ)                              60/1
Joe Pavelski (SJ)                                  60/1

The Senators are going to need another big season from Craig Anderson

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This post is a part of Senators day at PHT…

During the Ottawa Senators’ stunning run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals much of the attention was focussed on their “boring” style of play under coach Guy Boucher, and how they were able to play a tight defensive game to scratch and claw their way to victories.

And all of that was a big factor.

Boucher put in place a system that worked for the talent he had, and the results were there.

But it’s not like this was a particularly great defensive team that shut teams down. They ended up getting outscored (by only two goals, but still) during the regular season, and when you look at the number of shots and total shot attempts they allowed, or the fact they were near the bottom of the league on the penalty kill they were pretty much a middle of the pack team.

Having a top-five player in the world in Erik Karlsson certainly helped, but so did the performance of starting goaltender Craig Anderson.

Anderson’s season was a difficult one off the ice as he left the team on more than one occasion to be with his wife, Nichole, as she went through her battle with cancer.

On the ice when he was in the lineup he was perhaps the Senators’ most important player (not best … but most important) because there was a noticeable difference in the team’s ability to win with him in net versus when there was any other goalie. A lot of that is due to the way the Senators played and the number of shots — and shot attempts — they surrendered.

Anderson has been an underrated starter for quite some time and since arriving in Ottawa has been one of the more productive starters in the league. His .920 save percentage since joining the Senators is among the 10 best in the league during that time (active goalies with at least 100 games played) and he always performed well in the playoffs (.929 career save percentage).

When he was in the lineup during the 2016-17 season the Senators, including playoffs, were 36-19-4, which would have been a 104-point pace over 82 games.

With the trio of Mike Condon, Chris Dreidger and Andrew Hammond they managed only a 19-17-6 record … an 85-point pace over 82 games.

That change is not a coincidence when you look at Anderson’s performance with a .926 regular season save percentage that was third best in the league, as well a .922 mark in the playoffs.

Without that level of play from Anderson — especially in the postseason — there was no system in the world that was going to lift Ottawa to the level it ended up reaching. They were only 15th in the league in terms of shots on goal against, and when it came to 5-on-5 play they were one of the worst teams in terms of giving up total shot attempts.

Combine that with an offense that wasn’t particularly explosive and it was always going to be a team that needed to rely on strong goaltending. And Anderson gave them that.

Given that the Senators are bringing back almost the exact same roster this season with the same coach using the same system there is little reason to believe much is going to change with the Senators’ style of play. That means there is going to be a lot of pressure on Anderson to put together another strong performance like the one we saw this past year. Even if a league-average effort from Anderson on the same number of shots would have added another 14-18 goals against to the Senators’ total for the season, a number that would have pushed them from 10th in the league in goals against all the way down to 18th, and significantly worsened an already bad goal differential. With only four points between them and the Tampa Bay Lightning (a team that should be better this season due to better health) there is not much margin for error there.

Under Pressure: Bobby Ryan

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This post is a part of Senators day at PHT…

It was an interesting season for Ottawa Senators forward Bobby Ryan in 2016-17.

For most of the regular season he struggled through injury and the worst offensive season of his career, managing just 12 goals and 13 assists in 62 games. But once the playoffs started Ryan seemed to rediscover his previous scoring touch and was arguably the Senators’ best players on their surprising run to the Eastern Conference Final, recording 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in 19 games. He was at his best during their opening round series when he tallied seven of those points (including four goals) in their six game win over the Boston Bruins.

Later, he scored an overtime winner in the Eastern Conference Final against Pittsburgh and finished the playoffs as their second-leading scorer behind only superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Overall, it was a great playoff run and helped salvage what could have been a lost season for Ryan on an individual level.

Now starting fresh in 2017 the Senators are probably left wondering which player they are going to get: The one that saw his offensive production take a pretty significant drop, or the one that was a fairly dominant force in the playoffs.

The one thing that can be said about Ryan’s time in Ottawa is that his production has remained remarkably consistent on a year-to-year basis. This past season was the first time it really suffered a noticeable drop so it is entirely possible the injury played a huge role in that.

But he is also entering his age 30 season and there is going to come a point in his career where his production is going to drop a little more simply because that is what happens to players when they start to get into their 30s. With still five years and more than $35 million remaining on his current contract the Senators are going to need to hope that decline stays away for a bit longer and that the 2016-17 regular season was simply an outlier due to a tough season and an injury that slowed him down.

Senators are getting a bargain now, but keep an eye on that Erik Karlsson contract situation

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This post is part of Senators Day on PHT…

Erik Karlsson wasn’t playing at nearly 100 per cent during the Stanley Cup playoffs — and he was still by far Ottawa’s best player in their run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final.

Not only was he Ottawa’s best player, he was often the best player on the ice between the Senators and their opponents, despite playing through a foot injury. That landed him a vote for the Conn Smythe, despite the fact his club came oh-so-close but ultimately didn’t make it to the Stanley Cup Final.

While brilliant in the playoffs, he paid quite a price.

The surgery on his injured left foot took place in the middle of June and requires a four-month recovery. The Senators remain hopeful that their best player will be ready for the beginning of the regular season in October.

While Karlsson gets plenty of accolades for the skill he possesses and his ability to log big minutes during regular season and playoffs — making it look easy at times, too — he may not get enough credit for just how durable he’s been over the last four years.

He had a string of three consecutive seasons in which he played the full 82-game schedule. That streak was interrupted in March at 324 consecutive games played due to his injury suffered right before the playoffs.

As Mark Stone aptly put it at the time: “He’s the best defenceman in the world. If you take him out of your lineup, it’s obviously a huge blow.”

The Senators have a number of key contributors like Craig Anderson in goal and Kyle Turris and Mike Hoffman — among others — up front. But the success of this team hinges greatly on Karlsson being in the lineup and healthy enough to play. Even on one healthy foot, he showed he was still capable of carrying Ottawa, but the Senators will gladly take him at 100 per cent health in two months time.

Off the ice, it’s worth mentioning that Karlsson has only two years remaining on his contract before he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency. At a $6.5 million cap hit, you could argue that for what Karlsson provides them every game — not just the points (71 in 77 games this past season) but being able to play almost 27 minutes per game on average — Ottawa is getting a bargain on that seven-year contract right now.

Karlsson is a premier defenseman at the age of 27, and yet his $7 million salary for next season is at the same level as Jeff Petry, Alex Pietrangelo and Johnny Boychuk, per CapFriendly. For Karlsson, that number does bump up to $7.5 million in the final year of his contract.

That is, of course, going to change with his next deal.

The Senators have benefited greatly from having one of the game’s best players on their blue line. He showed that once again in the 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs. He’s won the Norris Trophy twice and has four nominations in total.

And it won’t be long before the Senators will have to pay accordingly in order to keep Karlsson in Ottawa.

Sens ink veteran defenseman Johnny Oduya to one-year deal

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The Ottawa Senators have added some depth to their blue line, as they’ve signed Johnny Oduya to a one-year deal that comes with a base salary of $1 million.

Interestingly enough, Oduya can earn another $1.25 million in performance bonuses (games played, time -on-ice, playoff bonuses), per the Sens’ Twitter account.

The 35-year-old started last season with the Dallas Stars, but he was traded back to the Chicago Blackhawks on Feb. 28.

Oduya finished the 2016-17 season with two goals, seven assists and a minus-4 rating in 52 games. He also played in all four the Blackhawks’ playoff games (he had no points and a minus-3 rating in the postseason).

The Senators lost defenseman Marc Methot to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion draft, and they didn’t replace him with a free-agent signing until now.

As of right now, Ottawa has Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson and Oduya on the back end (only Phaneuf and Karlsson are under contract beyond 2017-18). Top prospect Thomas Chabot could also make the team with a solid training camp.