Connor Murphy

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With aging, expensive core Blackhawks’ window is closing fast

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For the seven year stretch between 2008-09 and 2014-15 there was not a more successful team in the NHL than the Chicago Blackhawks. They played in the Western Conference Finals five times and won three Stanley Cups. They did it with a remarkably strong core of top-tier players that were all in the prime of their careers and that they were able to keep together at all costs, even if it meant gutting their depth when they were pushed to the limits of the league’s salary cap.

Because they always seemed to have a pipeline of talent coming through the organization they always seemed to be able to replenish that depth and continue to compete for Stanley Cups.

Until recently.

Despite a lot of regular season success the Blackhawks have not won a playoff series since their Stanley Cup win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2014-15, and more than a quarter of the way through the 2017-18 season find themselves sitting on the playoff bubble in real danger of actually missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2007-08 season. They are not the dominant possession team they used to be, they have gone from being one of the best shot suppression teams in the league to one of the worst, and they don’t boast anywhere near the overall scoring depth they used to have.

Missing the playoffs at this point is legitimate concern, and combined with back-to-back first-round exits in the playoffs it’s worth wondering if the Blackhawks’ championship window with its current core is starting to come to a close.

If it hasn’t already closed completely.

The popular consensus with teams like the Blackhawks is that it is just too hard to compete when a team invests a significant chunk of money into a small number of players. This is ot a new thing for the Blackhawks, and it is not a new thing for Stanley Cup winning teams. I have beaten this drum for years when it comes to the salary cap and the Stanley Cup but every team that wins puts the majority of its allotted salary cap space into a small number of players. You need superstars to win, superstars cost money. The Blackhawks, even when they were winning, were always pressed against the salary cap and always had to make cuts elsewhere on the roster.

The same has been true for the Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings, the other two teams that have been most successful in the league’s salary cap era.

As long as those players are at the top of their game and among the game’s elite, the money is literally no factor. You can find another third-line center. You can rebuild your fourth line. You can’t find another peak Jonathan Toews or Duncan Keith or Sidney Crosby or Anze Kopitar, and you can not win without players like them.

The problem the Blackhawks are running into is the players they have committed to are starting to get old and are no longer at their peak.

And it is happening fast.

The Blackhawks have seven players signed through the 2020-21 season. Those seven players (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brandon Saad, Artem Anisimov, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Connor Murphy) already account for more than $50 million in salary cap space for each of the next four seasons. Add in Corey Crawford‘s contract over the next three and that’s more than $56 million to eight players.

Again, as long as those players are in their prime and producing among the league’s elite, that is not a big deal.

The problem is they no longer are, and that is not likely to reverse itself.

First, just for comparisons sake, let’s look at the past 10 Stanley Cup champions, a list that is made up primarily of the aforementioned three franchises. What this table shows is each team’s salary cap commitment to its top-seven players, what percentage of the league’s salary cap that commitment is, as well as the average age of those players.

The important thing to keep in mind here as it relates to the Blackhawks is the age category.

Other than the 2007-08 Red Wings, the overwhelming majority of them had their top players all between the ages of 27 and 28.

How are the Blackhawks looking this season? They have 66 percent their salary cap space going to their top-seven players.

The average age of those players this season: 30.

All of those players are signed for at least three more seasons, while six of them (Kane, Toews, Anisimov, Saad, Seabrook and Keith) are signed for at least another four. Four of them (Kane, Toews, Seabrook and Keith) are signed through at least 2023.

(Keep in mind, none of this includes Marian Hossa‘s contract that is still on the books through 2021 as well.)

At this point we obviously don’t know what exactly the NHL salary cap will look like in future seasons, but let’s just try to ballpark and assume it increases at a rate comparable to the past four seasons (about a $2 million increase per season). Here is what the Blackhawks could be looking at over the next four years.

Their cap commitments to their top-seven players are either higher, or at the same level as the highest cap commitments of any Stanley Cup winner over the past decade, while their average age is significantly higher than just about all of them with the exception of a Red Wings team from a decade ago.

The problem here, again, is the age and what the current players are going to be capable of in the future because a lot of them are already starting to slow down.

How good is a 31 or 32 year old Artem Anisimov going to be? Brent Seabrook, currently in his age 32 season, is already a shell of his former self and he is signed for nearly $7 million per season until he turns 38. Duncan Keith is still an outstanding defender, but he is already in his age 34 season and is signed for more than $5 million per season until he turns 39. Father time is undefeated and will eventually claim victory over Keith.

I realize it is sacrilegious to say anything about Jonathan Toews that is anything other than effusive praise but he will count more than $10 million against the salary cap through the end of the 2023 season. His offense has already started to decline, and since the start of the 2015-16 season is 44th in the NHL in scoring and is currently on pace for what could be — by a significant margin — his worst offensive season in the NHL. Is that offensive trend going to reverse as he crosses into his 30s? Is there any amount of defensive ability from a forward that justifies a $10 million salary for a good, but very far from elite offensive player?

These are the issues facing the Blackhawks moving forward.

So how can they fix it?

First, it would be a huge boost if a player like Alex DeBrincat becomes the superstar it looks like he has the potential to be.

Getting an impact player like him — especially over the next few years when the salary cap situation is what it is — at an entry level price would be a game-changing development.

They also need a player like Kane to maintain his current level of production because he remains the one player that can drive the offense. If his production starts to decline things could really start to fly off the rails. He is probably not going to be a 100-point player again like he was a couple of years ago when he won the scoring title, but if he falls too far below the point-per-game pace he has been at the past two years there is really nobody else on the roster (other than potentially DeBrincat) that can be a go-to player offensively.

It would also help to shed one of those mega contracts one way or another.

This is going to be easier said than done for a number of reasons.

Not only do the Blackhawks seem to have a ton of loyalty to the core players they won with (look no further than trading Artemi Panarin to bring back Brandon Saad; the various reunions with Brian Campbell and Patrick Sharp over the years) but it is going to be awfully difficult to find a team that not only wants to take on a contract like, say, Brent Seabrooks, but to also find a team that a player like Seabrook would be willing to accept a trade to.

In terms of on-ice success the past decade has been one of the best in the history of the Blackhawks’ organization.

They kept the players they needed to keep to make that happen and you can not really blame them for doing so, even if it meant creating a salary cap mess right now. But it seems as if that group has finally hit its wall.

Adam Gretz is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @AGretz.

Are Penguins wise in reportedly trying to trade Ian Cole?

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Beyond an increase in penalty calls, you might chalk up some of the climbing scoring stats in the NHL to teams observing the Pittsburgh Penguins’ formula for success.

Granted, a huge part of it is “employ Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.” Even so, the Penguins were struggling at times before Mike Sullivan took over as head coach and, essentially, decided to throw caution to the wind.

Long story short, the argument goes that the Penguins decided to “outscore their problems,” with said problems being placed mostly on the shoulders of their defensemen. As you’ve likely heard hundreds of times by now, their second run came with no Kris Letang during the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Still, you do need some capable defensemen, and the Penguins surely can’t feel too cocky right now, what with a -17 goal differential heading into Monday’s action. Despite such worries, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey provides an intriguing update: blueliner Ian Cole has been a regular healthy scratch, in part, because the Penguins are actively trying to trade him.

Mackey provides some more background on the situation, noting that it’s unclear if a trade is imminent:

It does not appear the desire to trade Cole has anything to do with his play. It’s more a function of him being an attractive option to other teams, and, according to a source, interest in him has already been several teams deep.

Note: The report has been backed up by multiple reporters after Mackey first broke the news.

One key element is that Cole, 28, will see his $2.1 million cap hit expire after 2017-18. Like virtually every other regular contender during the era of the salary cap, the Penguins often need to let valuable supporting cast members leave, and it sounds like Cole would leave their price range. Mackey reports that the Penguins want to get something for him now rather than allowing him to leave for nothing via unrestricted free agency.

Mackey believes that Pittsburgh seeks a scoring boost, and considering how defensemen are held at a premium in the NHL, it shouldn’t be too hard to find a depth piece.

A solid piece amid a struggling group

That said, allow me to wonder if this is really the best idea for the Penguins.

As defending repeat champions, the Penguins shouldn’t be shy about leaning a bit more toward the present than the future, although it still must be a balancing act. By just about any measure, Cole has been a valuable piece for a defense corps that doesn’t look positioned to handle the loss of helpful pieces.

Cole is an experienced defenseman who grades out as a second-pairing guy, as you can see from his HERO chart, via Dom Galimini:

via Dom Galimini

Really, the Penguins might be better off looking for cheaper ways to improve their scoring depth.

Keeping the window open

When they made a move to acquire Riley Sheahan, they gave up a pick, and that might be the best course of action. The trade deadline would be an obvious time to do this, yet if the Penguins want to be more proactive, they could probably land something earlier as well. Beyond that, it never hurts to keep an eye on the waiver wire.

Look, no GM wants to see a useful player leave without any sort of return, but you can also sacrifice a viable option at the altar of “cost certainty.” The Blackhawks were worried about eventually losing Niklas Hjalmarsson, but Stan Bowman probably wishes he actually procrastinated rather than settling for a middling defenseman in Connor Murphy.

Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, and Phil Kessel are all 30. Evgeni Malkin is 31. Sports teams sometimes see their windows slam shut with cruel speed, so the Penguins would be wise to think long and hard about how moving Cole for something might hurt their chances this season.

This isn’t to say that Cole is a make-or-break player, but you never know how many pieces you can remove from the puzzle before the Jenga tower collapses.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Blackhawks scratch Connor Murphy versus Habs

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The Chicago Blackhawks play the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, and they will not have Connor Murphy in the lineup.

According to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times, Murphy is a healthy scratch for this game. He’s appeared in three games for the Blackhawks, his new team, this season, averaging just over 16 minutes per night, which is below his career average of 18:44.

This summer, the Blackhawks acquired the 24-year-old Murphy from the Arizona Coyotes but had to part with veteran blue liner Niklas Hjalmarsson, a key member of the organization’s three Stanley Cup wins, as part of the deal. That’s a significant move for Chicago.

Murphy, a right-shooting blue liner, is in the second year of a six-year, $23.1 million contract, which he signed with Arizona. That deal carries an annual cap hit of $3.85 million, so the organization would certainly like him to become a key member of the Blackhawks defense going forward. So far, he has zero points in three games and is sporting a Corsi For rating of 32.7 per cent, per Hockey Reference.

Chicago’s lineup versus the Habs includes Cody Franson, who initially joined the club on a PTO, and right-shooting Czech defenseman Jan Rutta. This isn’t an ideal start for Murphy as a member of the Blackhawks, though it is only the fourth game of the season, too.

WATCH LIVE: Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens

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The Chicago Blackhawks (2-0-1) visit the Montreal Canadiens (1-2-0) in the first of two intriguing games on NBCSN on Tuesday. This one kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, with pregame fun already underway.

While this game is available on NBCSN, you can also check it out online and via the NBC Sports App.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH BLACKHAWKS – HABS

One thing to watch regarding the Blackhawks is a defensive tweak, as Cody Franson is primed to replace Connor Murphy (not Jan Rutta) in the lineup. Wow.

Another thing to keep an eye on: the Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus reports that the Blackhawks continue to struggle with the league’s rule tweaks regarding slashing penalties and face-off infractions.

The Canadiens have their own issues to work on, as head coach Claude Julien stressed getting to the net, according to Matt Cudzinowski of the team website.

“I don’t think the lines themselves are responsible for keeping us from scoring. It’s more about the way we’re playing,” insisted Julien. “We have to find a way to get to the inside. Right now, we’re on the outside. We need to take pucks to the net. Those are things we can change. We scored nine goals against Ottawa with those lines. I had time to study our games so far and that’s what I concluded. We can do better work taking the puck to the net.”

It should be a fun one between two storied NHL franchises.

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This game is followed by what promises to be an emotional first-ever home game for the Vegas Golden Knights as they take on the Arizona Coyotes. For an in-depth preview of both games, check out this post.

Oilers, Golden Knights, Cali teams, and more in PHT’s Pacific preview

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Let’s cut to the chase and wrap up these division previews.

Check out these other previews: Atlantic DivisionCentral Division, Metropolitan DivisionPHT’s picks and predictions.

Anaheim Ducks

Poll/looking to make the leap

Arizona Coyotes

Poll/looking to make the leap

Calgary Flames

Poll/looking to make the leap

Edmonton Oilers

Poll/looking to make the leap

Los Angeles Kings

Poll/looking to make the leap

San Jose Sharks

Poll/looking to make the leap

Vancouver Canucks

Poll/looking to make the leap

Vegas Golden Kngihts

Poll/looking to make the leap