Can Kyle Okposo maintain momentum from his breakout year?

9 Comments

John Tavares rightfully grabs the most attention as the New York Islanders’ best player in decades, but in an era where depth can make the difference between contending and just surviving, it’s crucial for others to step up. As much of a difference as the team’s impressive offseason moves might make, the team could be especially dangerous if the Kyle Okposo we saw in 2013-14 is the one who’s here to stay.

That’s not to say that Okposo was lackluster in other seasons, mind you.

A big leap

At 26, he’s one goal short of 100 in his NHL career. Including his career-high 27 from last season, he has two 20+ goal seasons and two others that were very close (18 in 2008-09, 19 in 2009-10) to boot.

The 2013-14 campaign stands out because of two reasons: 1) he fired more shots on net and 2) he generated more assists.

Okposo collected 42 assists in just 71 games, giving him almost a point-per-game overall (69 in 71). To give you an idea of how big of a jump that was, consider that his previous career-high for points was just 52.

No doubt about it, some of that stems from playing with Tavares, especially when the Islanders enjoyed the work of that blistering-but-short-lived trio that also included Thomas Vanek. It would be foolish to depict Okposo as a mere passenger, however.

Growing into his role

His work in the month of March is demonstrative enough, as Tavares was already out for the season and Vanek’s last game with the Isles took place on March 2. Even with those two stellar linemates out of the picture (for the most part), Okposo scored three goals and seven assists for 10 points in 11 games before suffering a season-ending ailment of his own.

There have been some measures taken to explain why, exactly, Okposo made such a big jump … but here’s a vote for the vague notion of “being more assertive.”

It’s a generalization to say that more shots translate to more confidence, but it might be a decent measure for a power forward like Okposo.

Okposo averaged 2.75 shots per game in 2013-14, second only to the 3.11 he managed in 2009-10. Most other seasons he leaned closer to two per contest.

That might not seem like much, yet 80-100 extra shots during the span of a season could mean something like 8-10 additional goals (based on his career 10.4 shooting percentage). To get dorky for a moment, Islanders fans should be excited to see that his shooting percentage was a fairly repeatable 13.8 last season, as that’s not the kind of “puck luck” that is often a red flag for a fluky year.

***

Of course, the big jump in assists is probably the easiest place to see the “Tavares effect.” But, really, is that such a bad thing? The ultimate message might be that the Islanders would be wise to keep Okposo with No. 91 and give him the green light to shoot.

Will he maybe slow down a bit in 2014-15? It’s plausible, but there are also plenty of reasons to believe that he’s going to be one of the league’s more productive power forwards.

Wild extend captain Mikko Koivu’s contract for two years, $11M

Getty
3 Comments

Minnesota Wild fans fearing that the 2017-18 season could be Mikko Koivu‘s last can breathe a sigh of relief, and that suspense didn’t even carry into opening night.

Instead, the Wild signed Koivu to a two-year contract extension worth $11 million.

That $5.5M cap hit kicks in during the 2018-19 campaign and ends after 2019-20. It represents a minor cut in pay for Koivu, as he’s entering the final year of a deal with a $6.75M cap hit.

Koivu, 34, enjoyed a strong first season under Bruce Boudreau, becoming a Selke finalist for the first time in his underrated career. He’s been Minnesota’s captain since 2008-09.

Koivu’s deal would qualify as a 35+ contract, according to Cap Friendly.

The Finnish forward likely valued stability, maybe taking a little less in AAV for the sake of peace of mind.

This continues a busy week-or-so for the Wild, who also broke their impasse with RFA Marcus Foligno by handing him a four-year, $11.5M deal.

Opinion: this Koivu deal is a much, much easier decision to justify, even taking into account his advanced age.

Predators captain announcement looming; they have some great options

Getty
1 Comment

Multiple reporters* indicate that the Nashville Predators will name their captain (and alternates) on Wednesday.

Mike Fisher briefly held the title, and before him, Shea Weber wore the “C.” Both were safe, obvious choices; this time around, there are some intriguing options. The Tennessean’s Adam Vignan reports that the Predators themselves realize that there are quite a few logical captains in their midst (which probably isn’t a bad problem to have).

“It’s totally different this time around,” Pekka Rinne said. “I think Mike last year, I think everybody saw that coming. Everybody agreed. Everybody was really comfortable with it. I think now we have, in my opinion, at least four great options to choose from.”

Note: the Predators would be wise not to pull a Canucks with Roberto Luongo as captain experiment, even if Rinne’s easily one of the team’s leaders.

Some of the most obvious options include young-yet-veteran defenseman Roman Josi, big-dollar-center Ryan Johansen, and star blueliner P.K. Subban.

(Honestly, though, it’s difficult to imagine Subban wearing the “C” after all the weird, Listerine-scented stuff with the media happened during the 2017 Stanley Cup Final.)

As strong as those options are, it sure feels like Josi is the favorite, especially since he’s been around longer than Subban, Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson.

Vegas oddmakers agree:

And so do reporters covering the team on a day-to-day basis:

One moment of devil’s advocacy, though: Subban, Johansen, Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, and Mattias Ekholm all have more term on their contracts than Josi, who is a bargain at $4M for three more seasons.

OK, that’s kind of a weak argument, but hey … sometimes it’s a pain to have to deal with captain questions so often, and you never know if the team might determine that Josi is expendable, considering their deep war chest on the blueline.

Nah, Josi’s probably the easy and correct choice. Right?

* – Including Cory Curtis of WKRN-TV and Justin Bradford of 102.5 The Game.

Duchene dusts off ‘one day at a time’ for Avalanche trade questions

Getty
6 Comments

The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers posted an exclusive video interview with Matt Duchene, who was verbose …

… Compared to the terse statement he provided, without questions, last week regarding what must seem to him like ubiquitous Colorado Avalanche trade rumors.

Check out Duchene’s comments in the video below, which seem to mix saying a lot of the right things – and finding a new way to use the “one day at a time” cliche – with a little bit of edge that makes you wonder how well he’ll contain his frustration in other situations.

How often will he be available for such questioning on the road, particularly in big media markets and/or around reporters covering teams who’ve long been connected to Duchene?

Either way, Chambers’ video is another reminder that, for all the times people roll their eyes at canned responses during press conferences and locker-room interviews, reporters can get less-guarded moments where you can parse out greater truths.

(And, hey, it’s nice to give Duchene a chance to make faces that seem a little less … depressed?)

Chambers transcribes an especially intriguing part at the end of the interview (click here for more transcriptions from Chambers at the Denver Post, if video isn’t an option or your preference).

What if he’s not traded? “I’m not looking that far (ahead),” he said. “I’m taking one day at a time.”

Hmm, interesting, right?

/Refreshes the #FreeDuchene hashtag.

Kings’ power play – with Toffoli on point – is latest nod to modern NHL

Getty
4 Comments

Considering how well the Darryl Sutter-coached Los Angeles Kings hogged the puck, there was a sense that he yielded as much as one could expect from a talented, but aging roster.

With a new regime in the front office (from GM Rob Blake to assistant-turned-head-coach John Stevens), there’s at least one interesting test taking place: what if modern tactics were applied to a Kings team that, structurally, often felt like a “throwback” team?

(Again, to Sutter’s credit, that throwback style worked very well at times.)

LA Kings Insider’s Jon Rosen reports that the Kings are embracing the modern approach that sometimes scares off more conservative coaches: going with four forwards and one defenseman on a power play.

Rosen reports that the team rolled with Michael Cammalleri, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, and Drew Doughty on their top unit. In that alignment, Toffoli joined Doughty on the points.

The puck movement drew praise from Rosen:

There was ample movement; such positioning didn’t always remain that way. Toffoli drifted lower towards the half wall, and Doughty often was found straight away, at the top of the key. The plan? More one-time opportunities from high-danger areas closer to the net.

Of course, it’s important to note that it’s September, and the Kings could go a different way once the games count in the standings.

Even if their philosophy stays the same, injuries could force personnel changes. Then again, this alignment leaves a talented forward like Tanner Pearson off the top unit, so it’s plausible that this 4F-1D combo could weather a storm or two. Pearson could also nudge his way in if the Kings believe they need a better balance of left and right-handed shots (and so on).

Checking Left Wing Lock’s listings, it’s clear that his is quite the departure, as the Kings rolled with Doughty plus either Jake Muzzin or Alec Martinez in most instances last season.

Los Angeles fell in the middle of the power-play pack in 2016-17; their 19.1 percent rate of success ranked 15th, while their 46 power-play goals tied for 16th in the NHL. They only allowed three shorthanded goals, so for those other numbers to climb, they might have to stomach more risk.

When you ponder how much the Kings struggle to score at times, it might be worth it.

For more on the pros and cons of putting a forward on the point, check out Matt Cane’s 2015 bit for Hockey Graphs.