According to proponents of the so-called “advance statistics” that we continue to hear so much about this summer, the real Colorado Avalanche were exposed in the playoffs, when they lost in seven games to Minnesota.
All season long, according to the analytics folks, the numbers said the Avs were leaning too heavily on the goaltending of Semyon Varlamov, as well as a high shooting percentage that couldn’t possibly be sustained.
And after winning the first two games against the Wild, things did, in fact, seem to catch up to the surprise winners of the Central Division. In Games 3 and 4, the Avs scored just once on a measly 34 shots combined. In Games 6 and 7, Varlamov allowed eight goals on 56 shots combined, including the series clincher, in overtime, by Nino Niederreiter.
Not too long after losing to Minnesota, Colorado lost center Paul Stastny, one of their best possession players, to free agency. Which was a particularly tough pill to swallow, given they got nothing in return for the 28-year-old, and didn’t even have a postseason victory to show for rolling the dice and keeping him, sans long-term contract, for the playoffs.
There is, of course, an opposing side to the argument that the Avs are due for a downfall. (Or, in stats speak, for a regression.)
For starters, defenseman Tyson Barrie was taken out of the series by Matt Cooke in Game 3. Wouldn’t a lot of teams struggle if they lost such a key player? Just a coincidence they went 2-0 with Barrie in the lineup and 1-4 in games he didn’t finish or didn’t play?
Also, the Avs’ core is still very young, with the potential to improve under the coaching of Jack Adams Award winner Patrick Roy. Yes, they lost Stastny. But they’ve still got Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly in the top six. All with valuable postseason experience now.
On top of that, they added veterans Jarome Iginla, Daniel Briere, and Brad Stuart to the mix this summer.
OK, time to vote: