Leafs collapse should be cautionary tale for young Avs

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The collapse of the Toronto Maple Leafs — a collapse that was widely predicted by hockey’s burgeoning analytics community — should be a wake-up call for anyone who still doubts the predictive value of shot-based metrics like Corsi, and what those statistics say about a team.

No, Corsi doesn’t tell the whole story; if you’re looking for a be-all-end-all hockey statistic, you’re not going to find one. But those who continue to ignore what’s already out there, well, frankly, we’re not sure how anyone can continue to ignore these stats.

Consider: the top three teams in Corsi (score close, 5-on-5) are Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston. The bottom three are Buffalo, Toronto, and Edmonton.

This is not some giant coincidence. Good teams possess the puck more than they don’t, and that’s all these shot-based metrics are trying to measure. There’s really nothing “advanced” about these stats.

A lack of puck possession can be overcome, at least in smaller sample sizes, by factors like goaltending, special teams, and high shooting percentages. However, as the Leafs are discovering, relying on those things can be a dangerous game to play.

In the Globe and Mail, this is what they’re writing about the Leafs, losers of eight straight in regulation:

Fixing what ails this franchise will not be easy. Doing it while in continued denial about its faults will be impossible.

There has been an unearned hubris around this group for a while, going back well before last season’s half season run, and it permeates the organization from the players to the staff, management and ownership.

And this is what they’re writing in the National Post:

Hockey is fighting its way through the early days of analytics, which long ago washed over baseball and are transforming basketball.

And in hockey, the basic puck possession stats — Corsi, which measures shots attempts for and against, and Fenwick, which excludes blocked shots — have often been met with derision, not least by the Leafs themselves.

For an up-and-coming team like the Colorado Avalanche, what’s happened to Toronto should be a cautionary tale. We say this because the Avs are currently 26th in Corsi, above only Buffalo, Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary. And that’s generally not the kind of company you want to keep.

For all the coach-of-the-year buzz that Patrick Roy is receiving, if not for his starting goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, there’s just no way Colorado would have the sixth-most points in the NHL. Varlamov has made 1,715 saves this season, the most of any netminder in the league. If the Hart Trophy were actually given to the “player judged most valuable to his team,” he would have a strong case for winning it.

Now, this isn’t to blame the Avs for having a good goalie. Nor can you say their 10.3 shooting percentage, the second highest in the NHL, is just luck, what with all the young offensive talent they boast up front. When those guys get the puck in good spots, they’re going to bury a lot of shots.

It’s simply a question of, can you count on these things to continue at their current rate into the future?

History says no.

Last season, the Ottawa Senators led the league in 5-on-5 save percentage with the score close. They made the playoffs and Paul MacLean was named coach of the year.

The season before, the Florida Panthers led the league in 5-on-5 save percentage with the score close. They made the playoffs and many felt that Kevin Dineen, since fired, was snubbed big-time in the coach-of-the-year nominations.

On Saturday, Colorado beat the Sharks, 3-2, to clinch a playoff spot.

The Avs were outshot, 49-22.

Crosby: Penguins ‘probably deserved better’ vs. Senators in Game 6

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If you didn’t know that the Stanley Cup Playoffs can be awfully cruel, then the last week or so of action should make it pretty clear.

The Nashville Predators lost top center Ryan Johansen to a scary ailment few would have seen coming. The Anaheim Ducks fell in both games to the Johansen-less Predators, even after dominating significant chunks of Game 6. At least one Ducks player wondered if the better team won.

Much like in life, “fair” and “deserve” only matter so much. Sports have a scoreboard to serve as the ultimate deciding factor.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have similar thoughts after falling 2-1 to the Ottawa Senators tonight, extending the Eastern Conference Final to a decisive Game 7. You can nitpick questionable penalties and missed chances, but really, how negative can you be after Craig Anderson puts forth a blazing 45-save performance (with no overtime)?

Mike Sullivan and others echoed such thoughts.

” … Obviously, we’re disappointed in the result, but I don’t think we can get discouraged by that,” Sullivan said. “I think we’ve got to take the positives from it, and we’ve got to build on it, and we’ve got to become a more determined team for Game 7.

That’s not the sort of take that’s going to make the Senators angry in Game 7. The tone of the Senators’ discussions was likely very different after they lost Game 5 by a 7-0 score, yet maybe there was similar self belief.

Anderson puzzles Penguins as Senators force Game 7

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Who could blame fans for chanting “Andy” tonight?

The Ottawa Senators said they would choose to fight in Game 6, and Craig Anderson truly battled in this one, refusing to allow this unlikely run to an end on Tuesday. They wouldn’t roll over, even after a 7-0 humiliation in Game 5.

The underrated goalie continued his memorable (and emotional) 2016-17 season with a brilliant performance, making 45 saves to help Ottawa manage a gutsy 2-1 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

With that, hockey fans get a true treat: the Eastern Conference will go to a Game 7 on Thursday.

The Senators opted for a “bend but don’t break” strategy for much of the contest, possibly to Guy Boucher’s preference. Even so, the Penguins managed to grind their way to a 1-0 win thanks to another hard-work goal from Evgeni Malkin.

Mistakes would come back to haunt the Penguins, however, as Bobby Ryan broke Ottawa’s lengthy power-play drought to tie things up on a 5-on-3.

With their season in question thanks to a 1-1 tie in the third period, Mike Hoffman sent a booming shot by Matt Murray, and that ended up being all the Senators needed to tie the series 3-3.

Anderson was the standout, but Erik Karlsson was a hero in the way his detractors might not expect.

You can watch Game 7 on NBCSN at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday. The game is also available to stream via the NBC Sports App.

Report: Avalanche get permission to speak with Leafs assistant GM Dubas

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Could one of the most hapless possession teams of this more analytics-leaning era nab arguably the most promising analytics-leaning executive in the NHL?

It’s a reasonable question, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Colorado Avalanche asked for and received permission to speak to Toronto Maple Leafs assistant GM Kyle Dubas.

Current GM Joe Sakic recently got a vote of confidence and also cleaned out some of the coaching staff around Jared Bednar, so this is certainly a time of change for the Avalanche.

It will be interesting to see what kind of role Dubas would receive if he did join the fold in Colorado. Would he still be considered an assistant GM, only with more sway with what would likely be a smaller group of decision-makers? Could we see Sakic move up and give Dubas the full GM title (or eventually transition that role to the young upstart)? Might there be some other factor that would qualify as a more “outside the box” idea?

One thing seems clear: the Avalanche might want to be decisive, as demand could be significant for Dubas if he’s even somewhat on the market.

This could be interesting, especially if you’re a nerd for team-building storylines.

Video: Senators score twice to take 2-1 lead in Game 6

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The Ottawa Senators have defied odds during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and they’ve done so with what’s often been an ice-cold power play.

They finally struck gold on the man advantage on Tuesday, and at a key moment. The Pittsburgh Penguins were dominating much of the game and pressing for an even bigger edge after Evgeni Malkin made it 1-0.

Maybe the Penguins got overzealous, or maybe officials … finally started making some calls. Either way, the Senators ended up with a 5-on-3 advantage for almost a minute-and-a-half. With that opportunity, Bobby Ryan scored a huge goal for Ottawa on a shot that was both oddly and perfectly placed.

Moments later, Kyle Turris narrowly missed a golden opportunity, so the contest remained tied 1-1.

Despite a late push by the Penguins to finish the second, Game 6 will enter the third period with a 1-1 score.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH LIVE COVERAGE FOR GAME 6

Update: Mike Hoffman‘s booming shot gave the Senators a 2-1 lead in the third. We’ll see if Pittsburgh can tie it up.