Tyson Barrie, Semyon Varlamov

Leafs collapse should be cautionary tale for young Avs

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The collapse of the Toronto Maple Leafs — a collapse that was widely predicted by hockey’s burgeoning analytics community — should be a wake-up call for anyone who still doubts the predictive value of shot-based metrics like Corsi, and what those statistics say about a team.

No, Corsi doesn’t tell the whole story; if you’re looking for a be-all-end-all hockey statistic, you’re not going to find one. But those who continue to ignore what’s already out there, well, frankly, we’re not sure how anyone can continue to ignore these stats.

Consider: the top three teams in Corsi (score close, 5-on-5) are Los Angeles, Chicago, and Boston. The bottom three are Buffalo, Toronto, and Edmonton.

This is not some giant coincidence. Good teams possess the puck more than they don’t, and that’s all these shot-based metrics are trying to measure. There’s really nothing “advanced” about these stats.

A lack of puck possession can be overcome, at least in smaller sample sizes, by factors like goaltending, special teams, and high shooting percentages. However, as the Leafs are discovering, relying on those things can be a dangerous game to play.

In the Globe and Mail, this is what they’re writing about the Leafs, losers of eight straight in regulation:

Fixing what ails this franchise will not be easy. Doing it while in continued denial about its faults will be impossible.

There has been an unearned hubris around this group for a while, going back well before last season’s half season run, and it permeates the organization from the players to the staff, management and ownership.

And this is what they’re writing in the National Post:

Hockey is fighting its way through the early days of analytics, which long ago washed over baseball and are transforming basketball.

And in hockey, the basic puck possession stats — Corsi, which measures shots attempts for and against, and Fenwick, which excludes blocked shots — have often been met with derision, not least by the Leafs themselves.

For an up-and-coming team like the Colorado Avalanche, what’s happened to Toronto should be a cautionary tale. We say this because the Avs are currently 26th in Corsi, above only Buffalo, Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary. And that’s generally not the kind of company you want to keep.

For all the coach-of-the-year buzz that Patrick Roy is receiving, if not for his starting goaltender, Semyon Varlamov, there’s just no way Colorado would have the sixth-most points in the NHL. Varlamov has made 1,715 saves this season, the most of any netminder in the league. If the Hart Trophy were actually given to the “player judged most valuable to his team,” he would have a strong case for winning it.

Now, this isn’t to blame the Avs for having a good goalie. Nor can you say their 10.3 shooting percentage, the second highest in the NHL, is just luck, what with all the young offensive talent they boast up front. When those guys get the puck in good spots, they’re going to bury a lot of shots.

It’s simply a question of, can you count on these things to continue at their current rate into the future?

History says no.

Last season, the Ottawa Senators led the league in 5-on-5 save percentage with the score close. They made the playoffs and Paul MacLean was named coach of the year.

The season before, the Florida Panthers led the league in 5-on-5 save percentage with the score close. They made the playoffs and many felt that Kevin Dineen, since fired, was snubbed big-time in the coach-of-the-year nominations.

On Saturday, Colorado beat the Sharks, 3-2, to clinch a playoff spot.

The Avs were outshot, 49-22.

Report: Forsling signs with Blackhawks

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A report out of Sweden says that defenseman Gustav Forsling has signed an entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks.

For the past two seasons, Forsling has been with Linkopings HC of the Swedish Hockey League. In 2015-16, the 19-year-old had six goals and 15 assists in 48 games.

A fifth-round pick of the Canucks in 2014, Forsling was a star at the 2015 World Juniors, where he had eight points (3G, 5A) in seven games for Sweden. He was traded to Chicago in return for Adam Clendening.

“He’s an offensive defenseman that plays very well on the power play and has a big shot,” said Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman upon Forsling’s acquisition.

Assuming the report is accurate, Forsling can probably count on starting his North American career in the AHL.

The Blackhawks are hoping to graduate Rockford d-man Ville Pokka to the NHL next season.

Related: Three major challenges facing the Chicago Blackhawks

Hendricks to captain U.S. at Worlds for second straight year

OSTRAVA, CZECH REPUBLIC - MAY 01:  Matt Hendricks of USA celebrates goal of his team-mates during the IIHF World Championship group B match between USA and Finland at CEZ Arena on May 1, 2015 in Ostrava, Czech Republic.  (Photo by Matej Divizna/Getty Images)
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Last year, Matt Hendricks captained Team USA to bronze at the World Hockey Championships, marking just the second time in the last 11 years the U.S. had medaled.

So, why not go back to Hendricks again?

That’s what USA Hockey opted to do on Wednesday, announcing the Edmonton forward would reprise his role as team captain for the 2016 tournament, to be held in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Columbus’ Nick Foligno and Arizona’s Connor Murphy were named alternate captains.

Hendricks had a pretty solid tournament for the U.S. last year, scoring two goals and three points in 10 games — an effort made more impressive by the fact it was his first time representing the U.S. internationally.

The U.S. gets its ’16 Worlds campaign underway on Friday, with a game against Canada at 11:30 a.m. ET. The game will be broadcast live on NBCSN, and a live stream will be available on NBC Sports’ Live Extra.

Prized Flyers prospect Provorov says he’s NHL-ready

Ivan Provorov
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Philly had one rookie defenseman burst onto the scene this year, as Shayne Gostisbehere‘s stellar play earned him a Calder Trophy nomination.

Next year, another freshman blueliner will look to make his own mark.

Ivan Provorov, the club’s first-round pick (seventh overall) at the 2015 draft, says he’s primed to make the Flyers’ roster for 2016-17 — despite the fact he’ll be just 19 years old when the campaign begins.

“I think I’m ready,” he said, per the Inquirer. “But we’ll see what happens. I think I’m going to have another good summer and come ready in September.”

The Flyers have been high on Provorov from the minute they drafted him. He signed his entry-level deal a week after being selected, and impressed onlookers during his time at prospect and training camps.

“He showed us his play is efficient in all areas with and without the puck,” head coach Dave Hakstol said, per CSN Philly. “I thought his competitiveness was very good throughout the two days.

“He was focused and relaxed. He is a composed young man with maturity and confidence. Those are very good traits in a young player.”

This year, Provorov — who’s still playing with Brandon in the WHL playoffs — racked up a whopping 21 goals and 73 points in just 62 games. The potential of adding Provorov’s offensive abilities to a blueline that already features a pretty skilled guy in Gostisbehere is tantalizing.

But, as Flyers GM Ron Hextall points out, Provorov is going to have to beat out an incumbent, and won’t just be gifted a spot on the Philadelphia roster.

“They have to come in and be better than someone else that’s here,” Hextall said of young players looking to crack the lineup. “If that happens, we proved last year that we’ll make room in our roster for a young player that proves to us that he’s ready to play at this level and make our team better.”

The Caps say they’ve ‘matured’ and have ‘good poise’ now — we’ll see tonight

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The Washington Capitals — desperate for a win tonight in Pittsburgh — are vowing to stick to the plan, keep their composure, and not let a certain 21-year-old netminder get into their heads.

“I think that’s where this team has matured,” said coach Barry Trotz, per CSN Washington. “We have good poise. You’ve seen that all year with our team. We don’t get rattled often. We do get, I would say, very determined at times and we’ve shown a lot of resiliency all year. That’s why we were able to have the record we did. We didn’t let things bother us too much. And we’ve got a good leadership group that when things maybe aren’t going the way you want, they seem to be able to put it back on the rails for us. I think that’s the growth of our team the last two years.”

In Game 3, the Caps had every reason to feel like the hockey gods were out to get them. They put 49 shots on Penguins goalie Matt Murray, but were only able to beat him twice. They lost, 3-2, and now must win tonight in order to avoid falling into a 3-1 series hole.

In Game 4, the Capitals will have a major advantage, as their opponents will be without two of their top defensemen, Kris Letang (suspended) and Olli Maatta (injured).

So not only is it a game the Caps need to win, it’s a game they’ll be expected to win.

That means pressure.

And pressure, sometimes, can lead to panic.

According to Trotz, the Caps used to be guilty of exactly that. They’d change the plan when things didn’t go their way. They’d play too much as individuals. They’d play right into the opposition’s hands.

But not anymore.

“I think what this group has learned is that you stay to the plan, you execute and do the job well,” said Trotz.

“If you do that, it will turn your way.”