Who’ll have best odds at ’13 NHL Draft Lottery?


The NHL will hold a draft lottery on Monday in which, for the first time ever, all 14 participants will have a chance at winning the first overall selection.

This marks a dramatic shift in the drafting process.

In previous years, the NHL lottery only allowed teams to move up a maximum of four spots and down a maximum of one.

Under the new structure, the NHL has trended towards the lottery process favored by the NBA, which has yielded some crazy results.

(Exmaple: In 1993, Orlando won the No. 1 pick despite finishing the ’91-92 season with a .500 record, holding just a 1.52 percent chance of winning the lottery.)

Here are the likelihoods (in percentages) of each team getting the first pick at Monday’s lottery:

30th place — 25.0%
29th — 18.8%
28th — 14.2%
27th — 10.7%
26th — 8.1%
25th — 6.2%
24th — 4.7%
23rd — 3.6%
22nd — 2.7%
21st — 2.1%
20th — 1.5%
19th — 1.1%
18th — 0.8%
17th — 0.5%

As for the teams “vying” for the best odds?

At the time of writing, Florida sits dead last in the NHL with 34 points.

The only way the Panthers could move out of 30th is by winning their final two games of the year (against Toronto, Tampa Bay) and have 29th-place Colorado, currently with 37 points, fail to earn any from its final two games (against Phoenix, Minnesota).

Should both teams finish with 38 points, Colorado would “win” the tiebreaker by way of more regulation and overtime victories — so, the likelihood is that Florida will finish in 30th and Colorado 29th.

Where things get interesting is with the teams sitting 28-24th.

Standings currently look like this:


The real wildcard here will be Calgary who, in addition to its own pick, also hold St. Louis’ and Pittsburgh’s first-rounders in 2013.

The Flames aren’t exactly tanking for better odds for No. 1 — they’re 6-4 in their last 10 — but could still drop all the way to 28th by season’s end, and hold 14.2 percent odds to win Monday’s lottery.

Another team to watch will be Edmonton.

The Oilers have plummeted in the standings thanks to a 1-9 mark over their last 10, and are in the mix to pick first overall for the fourth year in a row.

If that happens, Edmonton will become the first team in NHL history to pick No. 1 for four straight years. Previously, the only other team to do it three times in a row was Quebec, from 1989-91 (Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan and Eric Lindros).


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PHT Morning Skate: Beat writers survey predicts Ducks will win Cup

Corey Perry, Frederik Andersen
AP Photo
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PHT’s Morning Skate takes a look around the world of hockey to see what’s happening and what we’ll be talking about around the NHL world and beyond.

In a survey of 29 beat writers, the Anaheim Ducks emerged as the clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup. If you’ll recall, they have that in common with the EA Sports simulation. (Boston Globe)

Alex Ovechkin would pick an Olympic hit against Jaromir Jagr as the biggest check of his life. (Russian Machine Never Breaks)

Here are the highlights from Minnesota’s 5-4 victory over Colorado:

The Montreal Canadiens seem committed to using Alex Galchenyuk as a center throughout the 2015-16 campaign. (The Canadian Press)

The NHL recently enlisted its players to read off some not so mean tweets. (USA Today)

Bills coach Rex Ryan talked about the Sabres in Thursday’s press conference. (NHL.com)

Frederik Andersen may have the Anaheim Ducks’ starting job for now, but with John Gibson still a big part of their plans, Andersen has to keep proving himself. (Orange County Register)

Niemi blanks Pens, notches two assists in Stars debut

Antti Niemi, Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist

DALLAS (AP) — Antti Niemi recorded his 33rd career shutout and assisted on two goals in his Dallas debut, as the Stars beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-0 on Thursday night in the season opener for both.

Ales Hemsky had a power-play goal and an assist.

Rookie Matthias Janmark scored on his first shot on his first shift in an NHL game to make it 1-0. The Stars acquired Niemi and Janmark in trades earlier this year.

Dallas scored on two of five power plays. Jamie Benn, the NHL’s leading scorer last season, had a power-play goal in the third period.

Niemi made 37 saves to improve his career record against the Penguins to 5-1-1. He withstood a flurry in the final minute after Pittsburgh pulled goalie Marc-Andre Fleury for an extra skater.

Fleury had 21 saves.

The Stars are 4-0-1 in their last five home games against Pittsburgh, and have won three in a row overall.

Janmark skated down the slot, took a pass from Hemsky and shot between Fleury’s legs at 1:39 of the first.

The Penguins dominated the latter half of the period, but couldn’t score. Niemi’s best stop was a reaching glove save of Rod Scuderi’s drive from the blue line with less than 3 minutes remaining. Pittsburgh outshot the Stars 10-4 in the first.

Hemsky scored at 5:42 of the second on Dallas’ first power play. His shot from the top of the right faceoff circle went in over Fleury’s right shoulder.

The Penguins again had an advantage in shots, 13-11. Pittsburgh had chances in close, but Niemi turned those away. Midway through the second, John Klingberg cleared away a loose puck from in front of the net.

Seven seconds into the Stars’ fourth power play of the third period, Jamie Benn tipped in Jason Spezza‘s shot from the right point.

NOTES: Dallas acquired Janmark as part of a March trade that sent Erik Cole to Detroit. The rookie had been playing in the Swedish Hockey League. . San Jose traded Niemi’s rights to the Stars in June for a seventh-round draft pick. Also making their Dallas debuts were LW Patrick Sharp and D Johnny Oduya, teammates with Chicago’s Stanley Cup champions last season. . In his first game for the Penguins, Phil Kessel played in his 447th straight game. . Pittsburgh was 0 for 3 on the power play.