Shea Weber

Examining some popular arguments for/against matching Weber’s offer sheet

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The Philadelphia Flyers’ 14-year, massively frontloaded $110 million offer sheet for Shea Weber has produced a lot of passionate and varied responses from the hockey community. Well respected writers and analysis have attacked the question of whether or not Nashville should match the contract from a variety of angles.

I want to take a moment and examine those arguments with the intention of offering some counterpoints and supporting evidence. Without further ado, here are some of the ones that have caught my eye:

The Nashville Predators need to reach the salary floor anyways, so why wouldn’t they match Weber’s offer sheet?

I personally like this argument and it’s one I’ve made, so in the interest of fairness, we’ll start by picking this one apart.

First and foremost: We don’t know what the salary floor will be yet because we don’t have a new CBA. Right now, we’re operating under the assumption that the salary cap will be $70.2 million and the floor $54.2 million, but there’s a good chance that won’t be the case.

However, let’s assume for the moment that will be the floor when they enter the season, it’s still not that simple. Weber’s cap hit will be roughly $7.86 million annually, but he will reportedly earn $27 million in the first calender year of the deal.

There are far cheaper ways to get to the cap if the Predators don’t feel like they can handle the frontloaded nature of Weber’s contract. For example, Montreal’s Scott Gomez comes with a $7,357,143 annual cap hit, but he’s owed $5.5 million in salary next season.

The Predators need to match Weber’s contract in order to maintain their status as a relevant franchise.

This is a bit of a tough one because ultimately, it’s hard to gauge what fan interest will be like in a non-traditional market after losing two of their most popular players. At the same time, a franchise is basically relevant as long as it exists.

If the argument is that a player won’t sign with Nashville because they let Shea Weber slip out of their hands, well, that might be true for some of them, but Nashville has stayed competitive largely by developing their own talent anyways. Guys like Ryan Suter and Weber might leave the first chance they get, but as long as the Predators maintain their farm system, it won’t keep them down for long.

Already, as dark as things might seem for Nashville, the fans can take comfort in the fact that they got a pretty promising core of young blueliners in Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Jonathon Blum. I’m not saying that they will be the next Weber and Suter, but it’s not like they have no contingency plan.

Besides, at it’s core, suggesting that free agents in general won’t go to a certain franchise feels somewhat misleading because they don’t all act the same. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise passed on teams like Pittsburgh and Detroit to sign with Minnesota, so it’s not like free agents simply seek out the biggest market with the best track record of success.

The Predators need to rebuild and what better way to do that then to take the draft picks

There’s certainly logic in this argument as the prospect of having an extra four first-rounders has its appeal. They’ll likely be late first-round picks, but then Weber was taken with the 49th overall selection in 2003.

That being said, I do want to offer a couple of counterpoints for you to consider. First off, those draft picks are naturally a huge risk. The Flyers might collapse one season, a 27th overall pick might be the next Weber — but it’s also possible that they could end up with four AHLers. We just don’t know.

It’s that risk that’s the reason why you typically don’t see a young superstar traded exclusively for a bunch of draft picks under normal circumstances. If you’re giving up a guy of Weber’s caliber, you want something a bit safer and more tangible in return.

One possible compromise is that the Nashville Predators could trade those draft picks back to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for some established NHLers or promising prospects.

The other counterargument is that Weber is only 26 (27 in August). Even if you’ve resigned yourself to the notion that the Predators need to rebuild, Weber is still young enough to be a leader once Nashville comes out from the other end.

It will be awkward to keep Shea Weber after he signed with Philadelphia.

Weber is going to be a very rich man regardless of what happens, but as we’ve seen before, the act of getting paid isn’t always enough to keep a player happy with his situation. If it was, guys like Rick Nash wouldn’t ask to get traded.

That being said, when Weber signed a 14-year deal with Philadelphia, he had to know that Nashville had the option of matching it. That might not be his preference, but if he didn’t think it was a possibility, then he was just deluding himself.

Weber’s agent has stated that his client doesn’t want to go through another rebuilding process. At the same time, he also left the door open to patching things up with Nashville if they chose to match the deal.

Also, let’s not forget that Weber would not be the first big name star to sign an offer sheet and end up sticking with his original club. For example, back in 1997, the New York Rangers and Joe Sakic agreed to an offer sheet. Sakic went on to spend the rest of his career with Colorado.

The nightmare scenario for Nashville isn’t that they match the offer sheet and then Weber refuses to play because that seems incredibly unlikely. The real nightmare scenario is that they match the offer sheet and then three or four years from now — after they’ve already paid him a large chunk of the contract because of it’s frontloaded nature — he asks to be traded.

That fear might end up weighing on the Predators minds as much as the financial implications as they consider their options.

Related:

Predators Chairman’s bold statements will be put to the test

Trade: Canadiens send Philip Samuelsson to Hurricanes for Keegan Lowe

ST PAUL, MN - JUNE 25:  President of Hockey Operations Kevin Lowe of the Edmonton Oilers and son 73rd overall pick Keegan Lowe by the Carolina Hurricanes look on during day two of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft at Xcel Energy Center on June 25, 2011 in St Paul, Minnesota.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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The Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes completed a minor trade on Tuesday afternoon when the Canadiens sent defenseman Philip Samuelsson to the Hurricanes in exchange for defenseman Keegan Lowe.

Neither player has played a game in the NHL this season and both will report to their respective AHL teams.

The most interesting aspect of this deal is that Samuelsson’s dad, former NHL defenseman Ulf Samuelsson, is the head coach of the Hurricanes’ AHL team, the Charlotte Checkers.

Samuelsson, originally a second-round draft pick by the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2009, has spent this season with the St. John’s IceCaps where he has one goal and four assists in 40 games. He has played in 13 games at the NHL level, most recently with Arizona last season, and has yet to record a point. He signed with the Canadiens over the summer as a free agent, inking a one-year, two-way deal.

Lowe, a second-round pick by the Hurricanes in 2011 and the son of former NHL player Ron Lowe, has two games of NHL experience (both in 2014-15) and has spent the past two seasons playing in Charlotte. He has three goals and nine assists in 49 games this season. The Canadiens announced he will immediately report to St. John’s of the AHL.

Injuries adding up for Senators as Stone, Hoffman out tonight; Ryan to miss month

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 15: Mark Stone #61 of the Ottawa Senators skates with the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center on November 15, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
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The Ottawa Senators, currently making a serious run at the top spot in the Atlantic Division, have been one of the biggest surprises in the NHL.

Unfortunately some major injuries are starting to hit them at the wrong time as they will be without several top forwards on Tuesday night when they take on the New Jersey Devils.

We already knew Bobby Ryan was going to be sidelined due to a hand injury, but coach Guy Boucher confirmed on Tuesday that the veteran winger is going to miss 4-6 weeks due to a broken finger. Adding to the injury issues on Tuesday is the fact forwards Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone will also be sidelined.

Stone, who was injured on Sunday night when he was on the receiving end of a Jacob Trouba hit that resulted in a two-game suspension, is going to miss the game due to a neck injury and there remains no timetable for his return.

Hoffman was also injured in that game against the Jets and will not play on Tuesday due to a groin injury.

These are some pretty significant injuries to the Senators, especially when it comes to Hoffman and Stone, two of the top-four scorers on the team and two of their most dangerous offensive players. The injury to Stone couldn’t have come at a worse time for him, either, as he has been on a roll over the past month, recording 13 points in the team’s past 13 games, including a five-point game against Toronto on Saturday night.

Entering play on Tuesday the Senators are just two points behind the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. A Senators win in New Jersey, combined with a Montreal loss in regulation to the Rangers, would move the Senators into a first-place tie and for the time being give them the edge on tiebreakers (fewer games played).

Maple Leafs place Brooks Laich on waivers

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 29:  Brooks Laich #23 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against the Tampa Bay Lightning during an NHL game at the Air Canada Centre on February 29, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 2-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
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Just one day after saying that he wants another shot in the NHL to win a Stanley Cup and that his best hockey might be ahead of him, the Toronto Maple Leafs have placed veteran forward Brooks Laich on waivers.

The 33-year-old Laich has been with the Maple Leafs organization since the middle of last season but has spent this entire season playing for the Toronto Marlies of the AHL.

He has just one goal and five assists in 22 games this season at that level.

Given Laich’s comments yesterday it is pretty clear that he still believes he has something to offer a Stanley Cup contender. Unfortunately for him there does not seem to be anything to suggest that when taking an objective look at his current position and recent performance. The Maple Leafs already placed him on waivers at the start of the season (he cleared), and his overall production has steadily dropped for several years now.

In 81 games last season between the Capitals and Maple Leafs he had just two goals, 12 assists, and was only 40 percent in the face-off circle. Another year older, combined with only six points in 22 games in the AHL, isn’t likely to inspire many teams to jump at him.

With a salary cap number of $4.5 million ($1.2 million for the rest of the season for any team that claims him) he would not be a cheap addition, either.

Flames see a ‘style fit’ with Stone

Michael Stone #26 of the Arizona Coyotes passes the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Consol Energy Center on February 29, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Matt Kincaid/Getty Images)
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The Calgary Flames wanted to add depth to their defense, and they didn’t want to wait until the last minute to get it done.

So, after signing Matt Bartkowski last week, they added Michael Stone yesterday in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes.

The trade deadline isn’t until next Wednesday.

“We have five games before the deadline, so we tried to get out ahead of it a bit,” Flames GM Brad Treliving said, per the Calgary Herald. “We’re deeper than we were a week ago, so we’re happy with it.”

Stone, a right shot, is expected to skate on the Flames’ second or third pairing with T.J. Brodie or Bartkowski, respectively. He may replace Dennis Wideman, who logged just 13:35 in Saturday’s OT loss at Vancouver.

“T.J. has some tempo to him so that could be a good fit. Whether it’s him or Bartkowski, we feel there’s a style fit,” Treliving said, per Arizona Sports. “We have some left-side guys who can skate and when Stony is at his best he’s playing with a partner who can skate and retrieve pucks so he can stabilize.”

The Flames play tonight in Nashville.