Shea Weber

Examining some popular arguments for/against matching Weber’s offer sheet

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The Philadelphia Flyers’ 14-year, massively frontloaded $110 million offer sheet for Shea Weber has produced a lot of passionate and varied responses from the hockey community. Well respected writers and analysis have attacked the question of whether or not Nashville should match the contract from a variety of angles.

I want to take a moment and examine those arguments with the intention of offering some counterpoints and supporting evidence. Without further ado, here are some of the ones that have caught my eye:

The Nashville Predators need to reach the salary floor anyways, so why wouldn’t they match Weber’s offer sheet?

I personally like this argument and it’s one I’ve made, so in the interest of fairness, we’ll start by picking this one apart.

First and foremost: We don’t know what the salary floor will be yet because we don’t have a new CBA. Right now, we’re operating under the assumption that the salary cap will be $70.2 million and the floor $54.2 million, but there’s a good chance that won’t be the case.

However, let’s assume for the moment that will be the floor when they enter the season, it’s still not that simple. Weber’s cap hit will be roughly $7.86 million annually, but he will reportedly earn $27 million in the first calender year of the deal.

There are far cheaper ways to get to the cap if the Predators don’t feel like they can handle the frontloaded nature of Weber’s contract. For example, Montreal’s Scott Gomez comes with a $7,357,143 annual cap hit, but he’s owed $5.5 million in salary next season.

The Predators need to match Weber’s contract in order to maintain their status as a relevant franchise.

This is a bit of a tough one because ultimately, it’s hard to gauge what fan interest will be like in a non-traditional market after losing two of their most popular players. At the same time, a franchise is basically relevant as long as it exists.

If the argument is that a player won’t sign with Nashville because they let Shea Weber slip out of their hands, well, that might be true for some of them, but Nashville has stayed competitive largely by developing their own talent anyways. Guys like Ryan Suter and Weber might leave the first chance they get, but as long as the Predators maintain their farm system, it won’t keep them down for long.

Already, as dark as things might seem for Nashville, the fans can take comfort in the fact that they got a pretty promising core of young blueliners in Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Jonathon Blum. I’m not saying that they will be the next Weber and Suter, but it’s not like they have no contingency plan.

Besides, at it’s core, suggesting that free agents in general won’t go to a certain franchise feels somewhat misleading because they don’t all act the same. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise passed on teams like Pittsburgh and Detroit to sign with Minnesota, so it’s not like free agents simply seek out the biggest market with the best track record of success.

The Predators need to rebuild and what better way to do that then to take the draft picks

There’s certainly logic in this argument as the prospect of having an extra four first-rounders has its appeal. They’ll likely be late first-round picks, but then Weber was taken with the 49th overall selection in 2003.

That being said, I do want to offer a couple of counterpoints for you to consider. First off, those draft picks are naturally a huge risk. The Flyers might collapse one season, a 27th overall pick might be the next Weber — but it’s also possible that they could end up with four AHLers. We just don’t know.

It’s that risk that’s the reason why you typically don’t see a young superstar traded exclusively for a bunch of draft picks under normal circumstances. If you’re giving up a guy of Weber’s caliber, you want something a bit safer and more tangible in return.

One possible compromise is that the Nashville Predators could trade those draft picks back to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for some established NHLers or promising prospects.

The other counterargument is that Weber is only 26 (27 in August). Even if you’ve resigned yourself to the notion that the Predators need to rebuild, Weber is still young enough to be a leader once Nashville comes out from the other end.

It will be awkward to keep Shea Weber after he signed with Philadelphia.

Weber is going to be a very rich man regardless of what happens, but as we’ve seen before, the act of getting paid isn’t always enough to keep a player happy with his situation. If it was, guys like Rick Nash wouldn’t ask to get traded.

That being said, when Weber signed a 14-year deal with Philadelphia, he had to know that Nashville had the option of matching it. That might not be his preference, but if he didn’t think it was a possibility, then he was just deluding himself.

Weber’s agent has stated that his client doesn’t want to go through another rebuilding process. At the same time, he also left the door open to patching things up with Nashville if they chose to match the deal.

Also, let’s not forget that Weber would not be the first big name star to sign an offer sheet and end up sticking with his original club. For example, back in 1997, the New York Rangers and Joe Sakic agreed to an offer sheet. Sakic went on to spend the rest of his career with Colorado.

The nightmare scenario for Nashville isn’t that they match the offer sheet and then Weber refuses to play because that seems incredibly unlikely. The real nightmare scenario is that they match the offer sheet and then three or four years from now — after they’ve already paid him a large chunk of the contract because of it’s frontloaded nature — he asks to be traded.

That fear might end up weighing on the Predators minds as much as the financial implications as they consider their options.

Related:

Predators Chairman’s bold statements will be put to the test

Fischer to become seventh Coyotes prospect to make NHL debut this season

SUNRISE, FL - JUNE 27:  Christian Fischer smiles after being selected 32nd overall by the Arizona Coyotes during the 2015 NHL Draft at BB&T Center on June 27, 2015 in Sunrise, Florida.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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The Arizona Coyotes are in the middle of a full-scale rebuild under first-year general manager John Chayka, and that means plenty of new faces and young players making their way into the lineup over the course of the season.

Entering play on Saturday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Coyotes have already used nine players this season age 21 or younger, with six of them making their NHL debuts.

That list includes Dylan Strome, Lawson Crouse, Jakob Chychrun, Brandon Perlini, Anthony DeAngelo, and Christian Dvorak.

On Saturday night against the Lightning, they will be adding yet another name to that list when Christian Fischer, the team’s second-round pick (No. 32 overall) in 2015, makes his NHL debut.

He talked about his debut on Saturday before the game, via Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic.

“It’s obviously a dream come true,” Fischer said. “I think that’s what everyone says, but this is what you’ve been working for ever since you were a little kid. It’s honestly just a dream. That’s pretty cool to make it a reality today. Just gotta make the most of it but for sure going to enjoy it. It’s been a long time coming, a lot of hard work. I couldn’t be more excited.”

According to the team he is going to begin on the third line alongside Jamie McGinn and Alexander Burmistrov.

Before Saturday Fischer has spent the entire season playing for Tuscon Roadrunners in the American Hockey League where he was averaging more than a point per game (32 points in 31 games) and was second on the team in scoring even though he is still only 19 years old and playing in his first year of pro hockey. That performance so far has earned him an opportunity with the big club.

With such a young roster there have been some major growing pains for the Coyotes this season, entering Saturday’s game with the second worst record in the NHL and at times being overmatched. But given how much talent has been added to the organization over the past couple of years, specifically as it relates to Max Domi, Strome, Dvorak and Chychrun, there is a ton of potential on this roster and some real hope for the future.

Goalie nods: Bishop looks to continue strong play for Lightning

TAMPA, FL - JUNE 06:  Ben Bishop #30 of the Tampa Bay Lightning tends goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during Game Two of the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena on June 6, 2015 in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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After finishing as the runner up for the Vezina Trophy a year ago as the NHL’s top goalie it has been a tough year for Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Ben Bishop.

A slow start combined with an injury that sidelined him for nearly a month have all contributed to a disappointing season for the Lightning that has them in their current spot on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. But since returning from that injury earlier this month, Bishop has started to resemble the goalie we saw the past couple of years when he helped backstop the Lightning to the NHL’s final four in 2015 and 2016.

In his past three starts since returning the Lightning have recorded five out of a possible six points with Bishop in the lineup, while he has posted a .936 save percentage by stopping 74 of the 79 shots he has faced.

The timing could not be better for the Lightning.

Given their spot in the standings (five points behind Boston for third place in the Atlantic Division and three points behind Toronto for the second wild card spot, with Toronto still having four games in hand) they are going to need a massive second half run to get back in the playoffs. A healthy Bishop playing up to his potential would be a good way to help achieve that.

Bishop is expected to be in the lineup again on Saturday night against Mike Smith and the Arizona Coyotes.

Elsewhere…

— The St. Louis Blues turned to Pheonix Copley on Saturday afternoon with Jake Allen struggling. He went against Ondrej Pavelec for the Winnipeg Jets.

Sergei Bobrovsky goes for the Columbus Blue Jackets as they look to maintain their lead in the Metropolitan Division. After giving up seven goals on Friday night against Pittsburgh the Hurricanes might give Cam Ward the night off, but have made no official announcement yet.

— The Philadelphia Flyers return from their bye week on Saturday night by taking on the New Jersey Devils. They are going with Michal Neuvirth in net. Look for Cory Schneider to go for the Devils.

Thomas Greiss gets the night off for the New York Islanders as Jean-Francois Berube gets the start against the Los Angeles King. Peter Budaj makes yet another start for the Kings as he continues to be the team’s starter in Jonathan Quick‘s absence.

Carey Price get another chance to break out of his month-long slump when he goes against the Buffalo Sabres. Price has managed only an .881 save percentage in January and has been playing at a sub-.900 level since the start of December. Look for Robin Lehner to get the start for Buffalo after Anders Nilsson played on Friday in its win over the Detroit Red Wings.

— The battle of Ontario will feature Frederik Andersen going for the Toronto Maple Leafs while Mike Condon goes for the Ottawa Senators.

— Phillip Grubauer goes for the Washington Capitals when they visit the Dallas Stars. He will oppose Kari Lehtonen at the other end of the ice.

— The Minnesota Wild have earned at least a point in 19 of Devan Dubnyk‘s past 21 starts (including 17 wins) and they look to continue that hot streak on Saturday night against the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks counter with John Gibson.

— After starting 43 of the Edmonton Oilers’ first 48 games Cam Talbot gets a much-needed night off against the Calgary Flames on Saturday night. It will be Laurent Brossoit going against Chad Johnson.

— Spencer Martin will be making his NHL debut for the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday night when he goes against the defending Western Conference Champion San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are starting Martin Jones.

Bruins coach Claude Julien: ‘I’m not quitting on anybody’

NEWARK, NJ - JANUARY 08: Claude Julien of the Boston Bruins works the bench against the New Jersey Devils at the Prudential Center on January 8, 2016 in Newark, New Jersey. The Bruins defeated the Devils 4-1.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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Following his team’s third consecutive loss on Friday night, Boston Bruins coach Claude Julien was in no mood to address the speculation that his job is in jeopardy.

He was more willing to address it on Saturday afternoon following practice.

In a lengthy answer, Julien said he is not worried about his situation because his job as a hockey coach is to fix things, not worry about his job status.

Here is more of Julien’s response, via Stephen Harris of the Boston Herald

“My job is to do everything I can. And if I become one of the reasons that we’re not doing well, then management has to make that decision. It’s not my decision.

“I’m not quitting on the team. I’m not quitting on management. I’m not quitting on anybody. I’m willing to go through the hard times. If it’s deemed my fault, then I shouldn’t be here. That’s all I can say. But that’s not my decision to make.

“We’re going with what we said we’d go with – that there would be some growing pains along the way. So be it. Did we put ourselves in a position earlier in the season to maybe (be) a team that all of sudden we believed was a playoff team? Absolutely. I still think we’re a playoff team, whether we can do it or not. My job is to everything I can to get us into the playoffs. That’s what I’m going to do.

“So, as far as rumors are concerned, I know they’re out there. But I don’t get concerned about the. Because worrying is wasting a lot of my time – and my time is about trying to fix things here.”

After narrowly missing the playoffs the past two seasons, and seemingly putting Julien on the hot seat after each one, the Bruins enter the weekend occupying the third playoff spot in the Atlantic Division even though they are currently on pace for fewer points than they accumulated the past two seasons.

Overall, this has been a bizarre season for the Bruins.

The front office did none of what it promised to do over the summer and left Julien with a flawed roster in some key areas (especially on defense). Despite that the team has still had the look of a playoff team but hasn’t quite had the results go their way. After finishing the 2015-16 season as one of the highest scoring teams in the league, the offense has dropped off a bit this season even though they are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to generating shots and chances.

Just about the only thing that has worked out for the Bruins this season is Tuukka Rask bouncing back from a down year and returning to be one of the best goalies in the league (and helping to mask some of the flaws on the defense) and the division itself being a little worse.

With Allen struggling, Blues turn to Pheonix Copley on Saturday

ST. LOUIS, MO - MAY 9: Jake Allen #34 of the St. Louis Blues makes a save against the Dallas Stars in Game Six of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2016 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Scottrade Center on May 9, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
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The recent struggles of St. Louis Blues goaltender Jake Allen have been well documented at this point.

In his past 11 appearances he has managed only an .867 save percentage, his coach believes he is “locked up mentally,” and he did not even make the the trip with the team to Winnipeg for their game on Saturday afternoon against the Jets after giving up four goals on 10 shots against the Washington Capitals.

With Allen at home getting a chance to “reset,” the Blues will be turning to recent call-up Pheonix Copley on Saturday afternoon as he makes his first career start.

Copley was called up from the Blues’ AHL team in Chicago following the Blues’ recent loss to Washington. In 18 appearances with the Chicago Wolves this season Copley has a .920 save percentage and an 11-4-1 record.

The 25-year-old Copley, who was acquired by the Blues two years ago as part of the T.J. Oshie for Troy Brouwer trade, has appeared in only one NHL game in his career. That was a relief appearance during the 2015-16 season when he took over for Allen in a 5-0 loss to the Nashville Predators. Copley stopped five of the six shots he faced that night.

The Blues enter Saturday’s game having lost four of their past six games and are on the playoff bubble with 51 points in 46 games. The point total ties them with Nashville for third place in the Central Division (St. Louis has the tiebreaker at the moment because it has more regulation and overtime wins) while both teams are just one point ahead of the Vancouver Canucks.