Mike Cammalleri, Mike Richards

Kings face tough odds to stay in playoffs

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Many people probably already wondered this, but last night’s 4-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche really makes this question a necessity: are the Los Angeles Kings going to miss the playoffs? Let’s break it down.

The standings

First things first, glance at the West playoff picture.

source:  (click to enlarge)

The nerdy perspective

Los Angeles would be in the playoffs if they began today but the Kings aren’t in Sports Club Stats’ top eight over the long haul. The trusty Web site puts the Calgary Flames’ odds significantly higher (40.1 percent chance), while the Kings (29.1 percent) edge the Dallas Stars (22.1 percent) for ninth place.

The Kings’ loss to Colorado dropped their odds by a whopping 12.2 percent, so even unfeeling supercomputers* hated that defeat.

What the Kings need to do

By Sports Club’s calculations, Los Angeles likely needs to churn out an 11-6-4 record to make the playoffs. (That record gives them a 73 percent chance.) A 12-6-3 (86.3 percent) or 13-6-2 (94.1 percent) mark would really do the job, though.

Can they do it? Teams can certainly overcome tough schedules, but they can swing the tide of close battles in a parity-laced league

Kings’ schedule overall

The Kings have 21 games left this season, with nine at home and 12 on the road.

The good news is that might be better on the road than at home (perhaps because of their not-so-thrilling style). The Kings are a mediocre 15-13-4 at the Staples Center and a scrappy 12-9-8 abroad.

Los Angeles better retain its road warrior status coming up, though, because the next few weeks good get ugly.

Big challenges up ahead

After a home game against Chicago on Saturday, the Kings play six of seven games on the road, with plenty of tough Central Division matches (only one coming against Columbus). Mid-March provides a reward of five out of six home games, but then they end March with a rigorous four-game trip through the Northwest.

With that in mind, a March 28 match against the Flames in Calgary could have gigantic playoff implications. It’s also quite possible that a home-and-home series with the San Jose Sharks could very well make-or-break their playoff hopes.

(Oh, in case you’re wondering, the Flames play 14 out of their 22 remaining contests in Calgary, which is probably why those foreboding supercomputers seem to love them so much.)

***

Looking at the situation, I don’t feel fantastic about the Kings’ playoff hopes – especially with the seventh-seeded Phoenix Coyotes building themselves a nice cushion. If GM Dean Lombardi believes his job’s in jeopardy, he better trade for reinforcements because this won’t be easy.

* Note: I assume all formulas are created by unfeeling supercomputers. I am not a man of science.

Do the Florida Panthers know what they’re doing?

2011 NHL Entry Draft - Round One
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The Florida Panthers’ managerial shakeup continued this week with the firing of their director of player personnel, Tom Luce.

Luce had been with the club since 2002. According to his bio, he had “been responsible for the Panthers drafting notable players, including Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, Erik Gudbranson, Jonathan Huberdeau and Dmitry Kulikov.”

The firing of Luce was particularly noteworthy, since it came just days after Dale Tallon was “promoted” to president of hockey operations. That move was sold as a way for Tallon to do more of what he liked (scouting), while handing off other responsibilities (contracts, salary cap, etc.) to new GM Tom Rowe and his young assistants, Eric Joyce and Steve Werier.

But not all in the Florida media are buying, apparently.

From Sun Sentinel columnist Dave Hyde:

I can retire now. I’ve seen it all. I’ve seen teams fire everyone after bad, average and even mildly disappointing seasons. But I’d never seen a team replace people who created a record-setting season that buoyed the franchise’s future.

Until the Florida Panthers over the last few days.

Hyde goes on to question the Panthers’ new, analytics-focused direction. (If that direction sounds similar, it’s because the Arizona Coyotes are taking the same route.)

His column finishes like this:

This should be an offseason of great hope for the Panthers. Instead, it’s now weighed down with a question of recent days. It’s not what Tallon’s diminished role is or who Rowe is.

The question starts here: Does Vinnie Viola know what he’s doing?

And that’s a fair question to ask of any owner. Especially a new one.

That being said, it’s also fair to question how much Tallon and Luce should be credited for the Panthers’ turnaround. After all, since Tallon was hired in 2010, Florida has had the first overall draft pick (Ekblad), the second overall pick (Barkov), and two third overall picks (Gudbranson, Huberdeau). Yes, there have been a few savvy picks — Vincent Trocheck in the third round stands out — and a few good additions via trade. But really, with all the blue-chip talent they’ve been gifted, making the playoffs this year was the least they should have expected.

“It’s a great game, but a tough business sometimes,” Rowe said of the firings, per the Sun Sentinel. “The fans came out in big numbers and it was awesome. We made the playoffs and that’s good. But at the end of the day, I didn’t think we had enough punch in the playoffs and I don’t think we gave [coach Gerard Gallant] enough options to get past the Islanders on our third and fourth lines.”

Regardless of where you stand on what’s happening in Florida, you can’t deny it’s all quite reminiscent of the summer of 2009, when Tallon was fired by the Chicago Blackhawks, replaced by the much-younger Stan Bowman.

Here’s a column that was written by the Chicago Tribune’s Rick Morrissey after that decision was made:

Wirtz and McDonough wanted to have their own crew in place. Fair enough. They don’t even want a suggestion of the mustiness of the Bob Pulford era.

But let’s try to remember Tallon played a huge role in building a team that surprised a lot of people by getting to the Western Conference finals last season. How it came to be that they chose Stan Bowman over Tallon is no secret. There had been rumblings for most of the year that Tallon would be out.

Yes, anybody could have picked superstars-in-training Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. But let’s remember that anybody could have picked Michael Jordan in the first round of the 1984 NBA draft. The teams with the first two picks didn’t.

The Blackhawks, of course, won the Stanley Cup the next year, a month after Tallon was introduced as the new GM in Florida.

Back to Matt: Facing elimination, Pens will start Murray

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 16:  Matt Murray #30 and Marc-Andre Fleury #29 of the Pittsburgh Penguins look on against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game Two of the Eastern Conference Final during the 2016 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Consol Energy Center on May 16, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but there’s a goalie change coming in the conference final.

On Tuesday, Pens head coach Mike Sullivan announced that Matt Murray would be back in goal for tonight’s decisive Game 6 in Tampa Bay — this after Sullivan opted to park Murray in favor of Marc-Andre Fleury for Game 5.

Technically speaking, Murray’s been parked since the second period of Game 4. That, of course, was the one in which he allowed four goals on 30 shots, paving the way for Fleury to enter the third with Pittsburgh down 4-0.

And that’s when things changed.

The goalie switch seemed to spark the Pens, who scored three times in the final frame to make things interesting. While that was going on, Fleury looked sharp — though not especially busy — stopping all seven shots faced, as his mates nearly pulled off a remarkable comeback.

The decision was then made to start Fleury on Saturday night.

He played to mixed reviews in a 4-3 OT loss, making just 21 saves (for an .840 percentage) while appearing shaky on a number of occasions. Though he could hardly be blamed for the game-winning goal — replays showed that Jason Garrison‘s point shot deflected off Tyler Johnson‘s behind — Fleury just didn’t look right, which isn’t a shock.

It was his first start since suffering a concussion on Mar. 31.

As mentioned above, goalie changes have been a predominant storyline among the final four playoff teams. St. Louis has started both Brian Elliott and Jake Allen, and the Bolts were forced to go to Andrei Vasilevskiy after Ben Bishop got hurt in the series opener.

In that light, Sullivan’s questionable decision to start Fleury in Game 5 is somewhat mitigated because, hey, other teams are having goalie issues too.

It’s also worth noting Pittsburgh’s situation in goal probably has much to do with its situation on defense. There’s little coincidence the club has conceded eight goals over the last two games with Trevor Daley (broken ankle) almost entirely out of action, Olli Maata being thrown into action and Kris Letang shouldering gigantic minutes — including a whopping 31:38 in Game 4.

Related: Rutherford says Fleury’s ‘absolutely not’ done in Pittsburgh, but logic suggests otherwise

Report: Wild parting ways with assistant coaches Wilson, Sydor

Chicago Blackhawks v Minnesota Wild
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Bruce Boudreau has some staffing to take care of in Minnesota.

Per the Star-Tribune, the Wild have elected to part ways with veteran assistant coaches Rick Wilson and Darryl Sydor. The report comes just weeks after GM Chuck Fletcher hired Boudreau to replace outgoing interim bench boss John Torchetti.

Wilson assisted three different coaches — Torchetti, Mike Yeo, Todd Richards — during his six years in Minnesota, and worked mostly with the club’s defensemen and penalty kill.

Sydor had been one of Yeo’s most prominent right-hand men, dating back to their time together in AHL Houston. The longtime NHL blueliner was embroiled in controversy last season after he was arrested for suspicion of drunk driving and child endangerment, eventually getting jail time for DWI.

Fletcher has reportedly given Boudreau “free reign” to fill out his coaching staff, which may include a third open position.

Per the Tribune, it’s believed another of last year’s assistants — Andre Brunette — will move from behind the bench to the front office. Prior to taking a coaching gig last season, Brunette had been working as a special assistant to Fletcher.

The other coaches from last year — Darby Hendrickson and Bob Mason — will return in their roles. Hendrickson works out of the press box while Mason is the club’s goalie coach.

Related: With an aging core, the Wild could be Boudreau’s biggest challenge yet

Report: Habs’ Holloway signing in KHL

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One of the few bright spots from Montreal’s disappointing campaign could be on his way to Russia.

Per Championat, Bud Holloway — the 28-year-old journeyman that made his storybook NHL debut with the Habs last season — has opted to join KHL powerhouse CSKA Moscow.

Holloway joined the Habs last season after four highly productive years in Europe.

In 2011, he emerged as a Swedish League star — Holloway set a record for most points in a SHL postseason (23 in 19 games) and, in his second season, became just the second player in league history to score eclipse the 70-point plateau.

In ’14-15, Holloway signed in Switzerland and continued to be a productive scorer, with 37 points in 42 games for SC Bern.

His scoring exploits translated over to the AHL, as he led St. John’s with 61 points in 70 games.

Montreal called up Holloway for his first-ever big league game in late November, and head coach Michel Therrien was effusive in his praise.

“This is a great story,” Therrien told ECHL.com. “The guy has showed a lot of resilience through his career to come back after playing a few years in Europe, and he did really well for [St. John’s].

“For him to get an opportunity to play his first game in the NHL, those are great stories and he certainly deserves to finally get a shot in the NHL because he’s had success wherever he goes.”