Calgary Flames v Montreal Canadiens

What’s the most dangerous lead in hockey? One blogger figured it out


You heard it once, you heard it a million times. A team would get out to a two or three goal lead and someone, somewhere be it at the bar or on the Internet would say, “that’s the most dangerous lead in hockey.” Since it was almost always a flippant remark and never taken seriously unless the team in front blew the game, you wouldn’t have another thought about it until later.

If you wondered if some teams were better or worse than others at giving up a seemingly big lead, there’s one blogger who went back through all of last season’s games to figure out just what, exactly, the most dangerous lead in hockey was. The guys at went through all of last season’s regular season results and figured out just what kind of cushion was the most perilous for a team to have. Their results aren’t exactly shocking in some ways and rather eye-opening in others.

For the purposes of their study, they looked at things this way:

For the purpose of this analysis, a lead is considered the maximum goal margin before the game reverts to a tie. For instance, if a team starts a game with a 3-0 lead but wins the game 4-2, the lead is considered a three-goal lead because that was the maximum lead margin. A lead is considered surrendered whenever a game reverts to a tie. For instance, if one team jumps out to a 3-0 lead but becomes a 5-5 tie, that lead has been surrendered. All leads include regulation only, as it is impossible to surrender an overtime lead.

Simple enough for us. Also keep in mind that surrendering the lead doesn’t necessarily mean losing the game either.

As you might expect, the absolute most dangerous lead in hockey is the one-goal lead as 85.35% of those were surrendered. That means either a game was tied up or the opponent took the lead back from them. For instance, the Islanders were the worst team in the NHL with a one-goal lead as they gave it back every time last season. The Islanders had to get ahead by more than two goals according to Puck Scene’s numbers as they gave up a two goal lead 42% of the time they had one of those. They were flawless when up three or more.

As for the rest of the NHL, a two goal lead was given up 39.52% according to their results. While a one-goal lead is always perilous, seeing a two-goal lead given up nearly four out of every ten times is incredible. Think of the “dead puck” era when a two-goal lead essentially meant the game was over. Now? Not so much. Of the 463 times a team held a two-goal advantage, 183 times that team gave it up.

While Florida was the worst team in the NHL with a two-goal lead, surrendering them at a 77.78% rate, Pittsburgh was in the top (bottom?) five giving up a two-goal lead 57.14% of the time. Two playoff teams were in the top five with Anaheim giving up the two-goal lead 71.43% of the time and joining Pittsburgh in that ignominy.

Even a three-goal lead had its perils last season as Puck Scene’s analysis shows that a three-goal lead was given up 10.34% (30 out of 290 times). Leads of four goals or more were lost a mere 0.91% of the time (2 out of 219). Of those two times, Montreal recovered after blowing a 4-0 lead against Calgary in January to beat the Flames 5-4 in overtime. The Penguins survived blowing a 4-0 lead to Detroit back in March to beat the Red Wings 5-4 in a shootout.

Colorado had the hardest time holding leads, period, and made their fans cringe any time they had the lead as they gave up a one-goal lead 94.87% of the time, a two-goal lead 42.86% of the time and a three-goal lead at a 40% rate. Even if that’s two times out of five, that’s two times too many. The NHL’s worst team, Edmonton, was equally terrifying with a lead losing a one-goal lead at a 88.89% rate and a two-goal lead 50% of the time.

Winnipeg fans might have to invest in Pepto Bismol next year if the Jets don’t improve on their final Thrashers days as they gave away a one-goal lead 90% of the time and fared no better with a two-goal lead (61.54%) nor a three-goal advantage (20%).

Obviously these numbers have no bearing on how things will play out next year, but the next time you hear a fan joking around about how the two goal lead is the scariest in the NHL… They’re not too far off in how right they are, just remind them that it could be worse. It could be a one-goal lead.

Dubinsky to have hearing for cross-check on Crosby


Brandon Dubinsky and the NHL’s Department of Player Safety will have a chat about his cross-check on Sidney Crosby.

The hearing is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, per beat reporter Aaron Portzline.

As you can see in the above video, Dubinsky delivers a two-handed cross-check to Crosby’s neck, so the fact that he’s getting a hearing is no surprise.

“There’s no secret. I try to play him as hard as I can,” said Dubinsky. “That being said, I don’t try and do anything dirty. I felt like my stick ride up his back a little bit. He’s kind of bent over there in front. But again, that’s not the type of player I am. I’m going to play hard, but try and play fair and play in between the whistle.”

Crosby isn’t willing to give Dubinsky the benefit of the doubt.

Anyone who follows the NHL knows that Dubinsky and Crosby aren’t fans of each other.

The two have engaged in some serious battles, including this fight last February:

Report: Habs will be Price-less for the next month

Carey Price
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It looks like the Canadiens will be without star goaltender Carey Price for the next month, per RDS.

“We still don’t know what the nature of the injury is, but we’re convinced it’s his right knee,” hockey analyst François Gagnon said on a french television show on Friday. “The Canadiens are preparing for him to be out for more than a week. They’re preparing for him to be out for a month.”

Price missed nine games with a lower-body injury between Oct. 30 and Nov. 19.

The 28-year-old won all three of his starts since returning, but he was forced from Wednesday’s game against the Rangers leading some to believe he came back too soon.

After Friday’s win over the Devils, Michel Therrien denied the validity of the report.

The Canadiens will have to provide an update on Price’s injury at some point, but their camp doesn’t typically give many details when it comes to this sort of thing.

Galchenyuk scores a beauty in comeback win over Devils

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The Canadiens drafted Alex Galchenyuk to be the big, skilled center they’d been lacking for years.

Most of his first three NHL seasons were spent at left wing, but over the summer the Canadiens decided it was time to put him down the middle.

The transition to center wasn’t always smooth. Galchenyuk struggled to find the back of the net, and his line, which is supposed to be Montreal’s second line, didn’t generate a ton of offense.

But something’s clicked for Galchenyuk over the last week or so.

The 21-year-old has arguably been the Canadiens’ best forward over the last three games and that’s coincided with the arrival of Sven Andrighetto.

The two youngsters were up to their old tricks, again, on Friday night as they led the charge in Montreal’s 3-2 come-from-behind win over the Devils.

Andrighetto got Montreal on the board late in the second period when he beat Cory Schneider with a wrister that cut the deficit to 2-1.

With the Canadiens down by one in the third period, head coach Michel Therrien decided to move Galchenyuk to right wing on a line with Tomas Plekanec and Max Pacioretty.

And with under nine minutes remaining in the final frame, he stole the show:

Galchenyuk has scored in three straight games, while Andrighetto has found the back of the net in back-to-back contests.

Both players added goals in the shootout to complete the comeback over the Devils.

These two teams will face-off in Montreal on Saturday night.

Tippett wins 500th game as ‘Yotes bury Flames in overtime

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GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) The Arizona Coyotes grinded their way through the tough stretches, relied on great goaltending and won it on a big goal at the end.

Call it a Dave Tippett special.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored in overtime, Mike Smith stopped 25 shots and the Arizona Coyotes beat the Calgary Flames 2-1 Friday night for coach Tippett’s 500th career victory.

“I’ve been involved in a lot of ugly games in that 500, so it’s probably fitting that was an ugly game,” said Tippett, who has 229 wins with Arizona and the rest with Dallas.

It certainly was right out of the Tippett playbook.

The Coyotes played a solid first period and both teams scored goals in the second on caroms: Martin Hanzal early for Arizona, Mark Giordano late on a power play for Calgary.

Arizona followed with a series of penalties, but Smith was sharp for the second straight game to send this one to overtime.

The Flames had the edge early in the 3-on-3 overtime, leaving the Coyotes gasping for air. Arizona flipped the ice for the final stretch, leaving Calgary’s players winded and scrambling.

Arizona won it with 39 seconds left on the clock when Brad Richardson sent a pass from behind the goal to Ekman-Larsson, and he one-timed it past Karri Ramos.

After the game, the Coyotes handed their championship belt, awarded to the player of the game, to their low-key coach after his milestone victory.

“Coaches don’t have many milestones, but that’s a big one,” Smith said. “Players have milestones all the time, but coaches only have winning, which is all that matters, really.”

The Flames certainly had their chances to win.

Calgary had a rare power-play goal when Giordano scored his fifth of the season, but the Flames failed on five other chances with the man advantage to lose to Arizona for the first time in six games.

Ramos stopped 18 in his first loss in five career games against Arizona and the Flames lost for the first time in six 3-on-3 overtimes.

“It was a good road game,” Flames coach Bob Hartley said. “We played smart, we played hard, it’s just the result, we wish we could change it.”

The Flames were coming off one of their worst performances of a disappointing season, blowing an early two-goal lead and a one-goal lead in the third period for a 5-3 loss to Anaheim on Tuesday night.

The Flames went straight to Arizona, where they watched the Coyotes beat Anaheim 4-2 on Wednesday night.

They played well and so did the Coyotes in a crisp first period.

Arizona needed 29 seconds of the second to take the lead, when a sharp-angle shot by Tobias Rieder hit the far post and caromed off Hanzal into the goal.

Smith stopped 29 shots against the Ducks and was sharp again, turning away some tough chances when the Flames picked up the pressure after Hanzal’s goal.

The Coyotes took a series of penalties, though, and Giordano scored late in the period by wristing a loose puck through Smith’s legs to tie the game at 1-all. That ended a 0 for 16 streak on the power play for Calgary.

Arizona kept sending players to the penalty box in the third period. The Coyotes killed off one penalty early and were called for another 8 seconds later but killed off both to get the game to overtime.

“Obviously, we’d like to score on those power plays and grab some momentum, but we did some good things,” Flames defenseman Kris Russell said. “I thought we played a good game throughout, but at the end of the day, on special teams, we get one there, that’s the difference in the game.”

NOTES: Coyotes captain Shane Doan missed his second straight game with a lower-body injury. … The Flames entered the game 29th on the power play with eight goals in 58 chances (13.3 percent). … Calgary C Jiri Hudler returned after missing two games with an illness.