In the grand scheme of things, the NHL’s landing back in Winnipeg has been a smashing success so far. That being said, there are more than a few people who are skeptical about the Jets’ long-term future for the simple fact that they play in a small market. Optimists counter that the passion level is high enough that a limited market won’t doom the revamp.
Of course, the ex-Atlanta Thrashers weren’t the only team in danger of relocating, which generates plenty of discussion about which markets might be the next one(s) to receive an NHL team. The most common duo are usually two Canadian markets: Hamilton, Ontario and Quebec City. Once you get down to the United States markets, Kansas City and Seattle have been hot topics lately, whether that attention is justified or not.
American markets score well in one study of potential NHL markets
The Business Journals’ On Numbers tried to tackle the question of which markets are ideal for an NHL team based on the total personal income of a given market’s population. Riverside-San Bernardino (California) ranked number one while Houston, Bridgeport-Stamford (Connecticut), Las Vegas, Virginia Beach-Norfolk, Providence, Austin, Hartford, Sacramento and Richmond rounded out the top 10. There were 22 markets that met the Biz Journal’s benchmark total personal income base of $37.6 billion, with Atlanta* (11th place), San Antonio (14th), Portland (19) and Seattle (20) being among the most interesting markets.. The biggest shocker might be the inclusion of Honolulu, Hawaii at the 15 spot.
Meanwhile, Quebec City came in at 31 and Hamilton, Ontario earned a 33rd place ranking, with both markets earning a “borderline” label and a score of 80 on the study’s capacity index (the top 22 all hit 100).
Pros and cons of the study
There are obvious flaws to this study since it fails to measure a market’s history with the sport (I’m having trouble picturing hula dancers at a hockey game), the availability of an NHL-ready arena, the probability of finding reliable local ownership and the general hunger for hockey.
That being said, there are some positives to take away from the study, as well. The economic situations of cities in and around Hartford make the dreams of a Whalers rebirth seem reasonable. Houston looks like strange place for the NHL in some ways - especially since the team would face opposition from the professional teams that have already been established - but they obviously have some history with hockey in the form of the Aeros. There are many who believe that the NHL might bring the first major professional sports team to Las Vegas, although there are obvious risks when it comes to gambling and basing a franchise in Sin City in general. Seattle and Portland could be nice fits from a geographic standpoint, with Seattle being especially interesting since an NHL team might be able to heal some of the wounds caused by the heartbreaking loss of the NBA’s Sonics.
The Biz Journals might call Quebec City “borderline,” but they’re obviously one of the first markets in line for a relocated/new team (if they can get a new arena built). The bottom line is that they’re a promising market for an NHL rebirth for reasons that go beyond income.
Either way, the list is an interesting read, even if the methodology looks at just one piece of the puzzle (albeit a big one). Feel free to discuss which markets might make the most sense for relocation or expansion (yikes) in the comments.
* - Say what you will about Atlanta, Thrashers fans blame mismanagement by the Atlanta Spirit as the primary cause for the team’s demise. One cannot help but wonder if the NHL might give the Georgia market a third try in, say, 20-30 years if a reliable owner surfaces.
(H/T to Puck Daddy.)