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Tackling how the US debt debacle might affect the NHL

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In case you haven’t been paying attention to news and politics lately (it’s OK, we understand that little-to-none of the news has been good), the United States’ credit rating went from AAA to AA-plus according to Standard & Poor’s. It’s been called “an unprecedented blow” to the American economy and could “eventually raise borrowing costs for the American government, companies and consumers.”

If you’re visiting this hockey blog to escape that nightmare story, we apologize. The sad reality is that real-world economics often invade the comfy bubble of low-stakes sporting events.

On the Forecheck’s Dirk Hoag did a fantastic job of explaining how this scary situation might affect the NHL in general today. After giving an overview of how the values of the Canadian dollar and the American dollar changed over the years – and how those fluctuations affected the NHL in that time – Hoag gave three hypotheses on how this latest crisis might affect the highest levels of hockey.

Let’s take a look at each of the the main points he made.

1. More Canadian teams spending closer to the cap

… A windfall gain due to currency shifts could make it easier for those teams to boost their player salaries for the upcoming season, and/or increase off-ice spending to gain edges elsewhere (Calgary recently hired Chris Snow to conduct video & statistical analysis, while Toronto has a front office loaded with ex-GM’s from around the league).

Could these shifts also mean more Canadian teams, period? It certainly gives an extra bit of credibility to hockey-starved Quebec, if they could ever get that pesky NHL arena built.

2. Small market American teams face an additional challenge

The NHL has a revenue sharing plan that can benefit the league’s smaller markets, but those markets must reach certain spending and revenue benchmarks to enjoy those benefits. Here’s how Hoag described that possible situation.

For a team which earned a full share in 2010-2011, missing that target next year would mean they’d only get 75% for 2011-2012, a hit which could easily amount to $3-5 million depending on individual circumstances. Teams missing those targets for the second consecutive year only get 60% of their share, and for 3-year (or more) offenders, they get 50%.

The third point is more about minutiae, unless you’re asking Dan Ellis.

3. Players may benefit from decreased escrow

Again, that’s a concern that probably doesn’t register with many fans, but read the post if you’re curious.

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So, the basic takeaway is that Canadian teams could benefit across the board while small market (non-traditional?) American teams might be under even more stress if the downgrade has a significant impact on American currency. In a way, it almost seems like Canadian teams are getting revenge for the ’90s, when their teams were bleeding money and the Sunbelt expansion was in full swing.

Of course, while Hoag’s post is grounded in logic, it’s still speculation at this point. That being said, could the NHL actually consider putting together an American Assistance Plan in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement to echo the Canadian version from the latest one? There are all kinds of possibilities at play here … and most of them are rather depressing.

We could have more than a year to discuss these and many other issues as the CBA races toward expiration, although most of us will spend the majority of our time simply begging for both sides to avoid another lockout.

Capitals shine glaring light on Blues’ goalie woes

ST LOUIS, MO - MAY 23:  Jake Allen #34 of the St. Louis Blues makes a save during the first period against the San Jose Sharks in Game Five of the Western Conference Final during the 2016 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scottrade Center on May 23, 2016 in St Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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If you’re reaction the headline “Something is off about the St. Louis Blues” was “Yeah, their goaltending,” then Thursday only emboldened that opinion.

It wasn’t just that the Washington Capitals bombarded the Blues by a score of 7-3. It’s that they really didn’t need to fire a whole lot of shots on goal to get to seven.

Here’s a harsh rule of thumb: when both of your goalies play in a game and each one barely makes more saves than goals allowed, that’s an awful night. Take a look at what Jake Allen and Carter Hutton went through:

Allen: six saves, four goals allowed in 25:11 time on ice
Hutton: five saves, three goals allowed in 35:49

Yeah, that’s hideous.

Even before these horrendous performances, the Blues goalies have been shaky. Hutton came into tonight with an ugly .898 save percentage; Allen wasn’t much better with a .900 mark.

Those are the type of numbers that would make Dallas Stars fans cringe, or at least experience some uncomfortable familiarity.

Now, is it all on Hutton and Allen? Much like with the Stars’ embattled goalies, much of the struggles probably come down to a team struggling in front of them.

Even so, if you assign more of the blame to Allen and Hutton, nights like this Capitals thrashing definitely strengthen your argument. Yikes.

Rangers overwhelm Leafs, make life pretty easy for Lundqvist in win

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 19:  Henrik Lundqvist #30 of the New York Rangers faces a shot in the warm-up prior to play against the Toronto Maple Leafs in an NHL game at the Air Canada Centre on January 19, 2017 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
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Heading into Thursday, many were wondering how the New York Rangers will handle Henrik Lundqvist‘s struggles. Instead, the focus shifted to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ difficulties, perhaps specifically in dealing with Morgan Rielly‘s absence.

The Rangers handily won this one 5-2, at least giving Lundqvist the win. He wasn’t especially busy, stopping 23 out of 25 shots, so you can probably file his story under “To be continued.”

Really, it was all about the waves of attackers the Rangers can send at opponents and the trouble that caused for the Maple Leafs. It wasn’t the easiest night for Frank Corrado, in particular, who took a couple costly penalties.

The Rangers’ next two games come in a road contest vs. the Red Wings on Sunday and a home game against the Kings on Monday. Perhaps those matches will serve as a better barometer for where Lundqvist’s really at, as he passed tonight’s test … but it wasn’t a particularly difficult one.

So, is Mike Condon actually really good? He certainly was against Columbus

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 8: Mike Condon #1 of the Ottawa Senators stands at the bench during a break in a game against the Edmonton Oilers at Canadian Tire Centre on January 8, 2017 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
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Considering their numbers heading in, many were perplexed when the Ottawa Senators essentially replaced Andrew Hammond with Mike Condon. Now many are perplexed by just how strong Condon’s often been for Ottawa.

Thursday might stand as the prime example that this guy could be better than many expected.

The Columbus Blue Jackets dominated much of the play, generating a 42-28 shots on goal advantage, but Ottawa ended up winning 2-0 tonight.

Condon already came into tonight with a solid save percentage (.915 before this shutout), and he’s now won four of his last five games. Three of his four career shutouts have come this season.

Ignoring his one game with Pittsburgh this season for the sake of simplicity (it was bad), just consider his tough times with Montreal last season. He went 21-25-6 with a shaky .903 save percentage.

This marks just his 21st start and 23rd appearance of this season, so it’s not a guaranteee for future results. Still … it’s another example that goalies are as just about as unpredictable as they are crucial to a team’s fate.

More and more, it seems like Condon might just be a difference-maker, and in the positive sense this time around.

Greiss blanks Stars as Isles win in first game of post-Capuano era

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 19:  Doug Weight of the New York Islanders handles his first game as head coach against the Dallas Stars at the Barclays Center on January 19, 2017 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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The New York Islanders began the Doug Weight era in the same way Jack Capuano’s ended: with a shutout.

Yeah, it’s easy to forget that the Islanders actually won their last game under Capuano, consider all that’s happened since.

They blanked the Boston Bruins 4-0 on Monday and generated a 3-0 shutout against thd Dallas Stars on Thursday. It’s quite a feather in the cap of goalie Thomas Greiss, who owns these back-to-back shutouts.

(It’s worth mentioning that, for all the Bruins’ and Stars’ flaws, they can be very explosive on offense …)

That Monday shutout wasn’t enough for Capuano to save his job, and the Isles still have a long way to go after this encouraging outcome. The East’s second wild card spot still seems like a long shot for Weight & Co.

Even so, the Islanders will take it. They play their next five games at home and seven of eight in Brooklyn, so if there’s ever a time for movement, it would logically come now.

If nothing else, maybe life will be a bit better for John Tavares. He scored another goal on Thursday to add to his beautiful 1-0 tally.

Baby steps, right?