Derek Mackenzie

Which teams really had the best and worst power plays last season? (Power play +/- in 2010-11)

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Thanks to a mixture of nostalgia, laziness and stubbornness, many professional sports teams and writers are unwilling to consider “new” statistics. Just look at baseball; Major League Baseball’s statistical schism over the use of such “groundbreaking” stats as On Base Percentage was so strong that it inspired the fantastic Michael Lewis book “Moneyball” (which has been developed into a Brad Pitt vehicle that may or may not be fantastic).

It’s quite possible that it might take decades (if ever) until people can put everything that happens on an ice hockey rink into neat little statistical categories. That being said, various stat-heavy sites are providing new ways of thinking for those unsatisfied with the traditional methods.

Much of the work usually focuses on the defensive side of the game, as many (myself included) consider widely-used defensive stats to be rather lacking. Yet there’s two special teams stats that stick in my craw: power play and penalty kill percentages.

What Power Play Plus/Minus is (and why it’s better than PP %)

For that reason, I shared my* own power play stats a few times already on Pro Hockey Talk. This post will reveal the 2010-11 totals for Power Play Plus/Minus, which follows the simple (but effective) formula: power play goals scored minus shorthanded goals allowed. If you ask me, it provides a more accurate depiction of a team’s power play than the percentage model for two major reasons.

1. Some teams draw more penalties than others, so they might convert less often but score more PP goals overall. Really, isn’t all about how many goals you score, not how “efficient” your power play is?

2. Power play percentage doesn’t factor shorthanded goals allowed, so reckless units are rewarded. Let’s not forget how devastating it can be to allow a goal when you’re on the PP.

For a frame of reference, here are the NHL’s top teams according to the industry standard power play percentage. This table includes power play opportunities, power play goals and shorthanded goals allowed. Note: both of these stats use 2010-11 regular season totals only.

Team PP Opp PPG PP% SHGA
VAN 296 72 24.3 2
SJS 289 68 23.5 7
ANA 285 67 23.5 7
CHI 277 64 23.1 4
DET 301 67 22.3 7
TBL 336 69 20.5 16
MTL 290 57 19.7 6
CGY 318 62 19.5 9
BUF 279 54 19.4 13
STL 279 52 18.6 1
COL 265 49 18.5 11
ATL 289 53 18.3 10
MIN 292 53 18.2 7
DAL 306 55 18 15
OTT 257 45 17.5 4
WSH 263 46 17.5 5
NYI 302 52 17.2 7
NYR 290 49 16.9 5
PHI 295 49 16.6 5
BOS 265 43 16.2 5
LAK 292 47 16.1 6
TOR 326 52 16 8
PHX 289 46 15.9 6
CAR 346 55 15.9 6
PIT 311 49 15.8 6
NSH 269 41 15.2 2
EDM 304 44 14.5 2
NJD 237 34 14.4 8
CBJ 301 42 14 11
FLA 267 35 13.1 5

***

Now, let’s look at how the 30 teams fared in Power Play Plus/Minus.

Team PP Opp PPG SHGA PP +/-
VAN 296 72 2 70
SJS 289 68 7 61
ANA 285 67 7 60
CHI 277 64 4 60
DET 301 67 7 60
TBL 336 69 16 53
CGY 318 62 9 53
MTL 290 57 6 51
STL 279 52 1 51
CAR 346 55 6 49
MIN 292 53 7 46
NYI 302 52 7 45
NYR 290 49 5 44
PHI 295 49 5 44
TOR 326 52 8 44
ATL 289 53 10 43
PIT 311 49 6 43
EDM 304 44 2 42
BUF 279 54 13 41
OTT 257 45 4 41
WSH 263 46 5 41
LAK 292 47 6 41
DAL 306 55 15 40
PHX 289 46 6 40
NSH 269 41 2 39
COL 265 49 11 38
BOS 265 43 5 38
CBJ 301 42 11 31
FLA 267 35 5 30
NJD 237 34 8 26

***

When it comes to the elite PPs, the top six stayed the same and the top 10 was very similar overall. That being said, there were other squads who made big jumps or dropped far when you looked at the mere quantity of goals their units scored and how many shorties they allowed.

  • The Hurricanes only connected on 15.3 percent of their man advantages, but they drew 346 penalties, the highest total in the NHL. That allowed them to score 55 power play goals, making their unit productive in the big picture.
  • The Penguins and Oilers made big jumps (Pittsburgh from 25th to tied for 16th; Edmonton 27th to 18th) because they drew more than 300 power plays. The Oilers only scored 44 goals but rarely shot themselves in the foot, only allowing two shorthanded goals.
  • The Sabres (ninth to tied for 19th) and Stars (14th to 23rd) allowed more than 10 shorties, revealing that their PP units were double-edged swords.
  • The Avalanche found the net on 18.5 percent of their opportunities, but they were tied with the Bruins for fourth-worst at drawing them (265 PP’s) and allowed 11 shorthanded goals. Calling their power play a top-10 unit seems laughable when you put it in the proper context.

***

Stay tuned for a look at Penalty Kill Plus/Minus and a big picture wrap-up later on.

* – Well, I think I introduced these very simple stats, because no one else came forward in the many times I published them. They’re so simple that I wouldn’t be shocked if someone else explored them, though.

Team Europe’s next challenge: Beat the unbeatable

TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 24: Team Canada salute the fans following their 5-3 win over Team Russia during the World Cup of Hockey at the semifinal game during the World Cup of Hockey tournament at Air Canada Centre on September 24, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)
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Team Europe has already done more than anybody expected them to do at the World Cup by reaching the Final thanks to their stunning overtime win against Sweden in the semifinal on Sunday.

Just getting to this point, after beating the United States and Sweden — two of the world’s biggest hockey powers — along the way is a major accomplishment that would have seemed to be a nearly impossible task just two weeks ago.

Now they have one more seemingly impossible task in front of them: Beat Canada.

And not just beat Canada, but beat them twice.

In only three games.

For any team in this tournament that would have been a tall task in the championship round. Not only does Canada bring an insanely deep roster to the table that has multiple MVP candidates, Norris Trophy candidates, and Vezina Trophy candidates on it, but their recent play on the ice matches the absurdity of the roster on paper.

They don’t just win, they dominate teams.

Since the start of the 2014 Olympics this is what Team Canada has done to its opponents in the two major best-on-best tournaments it has played:

  1. They are 10-0
  2. They have outscored teams by a 36-9 margin
  3. They are coming off of a semifinal game against Russia where they nearly put up 50 shots on goal in a regulation game
  4. They have allowed more than one goal in just two of those games, and more than two goals just once

The games haven’t even been as close as the final scores would indicate because the final scores haven’t always reflected the level of dominance on display. A one or two goal deficit against these guys and their style of play usually feels like a 50 goal deficit.

On paper, this seems like it should already be over before it even begins.

But the beauty of a short series is that even when the two teams don’t match up on paper, random things can happen, mostly because of the X-factor that is goaltending.

Right now Europe’s Jaroslav Halak is putting quite a story together in this tournament. He has helped underdogs knock off superior teams in the past when he gets on a roll like the one he is on now.

It is going to take all of that and more to help Europe beat Canada two times over the next week.

They have already done what seemed to be the impossible to get to this point. Now they just have to do what seems to be the impossible again.

Twice.

Jaroslav Halak carried Team Europe to the World Cup Final

TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 25:  Jaroslav Halak #41 of Team Europe celebrates a 3-2 overtime victory over Team Sweden at the semifinal game during the World Cup of Hockey tournament at the Air Canada Centre on September 25, 2016 in Toronto, Canada.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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Jaroslav Halak is doing it again.

He is taking an undermanned team, one that doesn’t match up with its opponents on paper, and carrying it to a level nobody expected it to reach.

He did it during the 2010 NHL playoffs as a member of the Montreal Canadiens when he helped a No. 8 seed upset that year’s Presidents’ Trophy winning team in the first round, and then the defending Stanley Cup champions in the second round. The Canadiens were mostly outplayed in each series, but Halak was so good, and so dominant, that it didn’t matter. He was the single biggest reason his team reached the Eastern Conference Final that year.

He showed how much of an impact a hot goalie can make on a team a short series.

He is kind of doing it again this year at the World Cup for Team Europe as it is now in the championship series getting ready to take on Team Canada.

The team in front of him isn’t getting outplayed to the same degree that the 2010 Canadiens were in those playoffs, but Halak has still been his team’s best player and the biggest factor in its current success. His .946 save percentage through four games is among the best in the tournament, while his 37 save effort in the semifinal on Sunday was probably his best one so far (and that includes his opening game shutout against the United States).

The European team has its share of forward talent up front. Anze Kopitar is one of the best two-way players in hockey and has been spectacular in this tournament. Marian Gaborik and Thomas Vanek are former 40-goal scorers in the NHL, while Frans Nielsen has always been one of the more underrated players in the league.

But the defense, even with a great player like Roman Josi, doesn’t really come close to matching some other teams in the tournament.

It has two players that don’t currently have NHL contracts (Dennis Seidenberg and Christian Ehrhoff). Zdeno Chara is 38 years old and has clearly slowed down from where he was a few years ago.

As a team, they have the oldest roster in the tournament, and based on their pre-tournament games it looked like they were going to be nothing more than a minor speed bump for the rest of their teams in their group.

Put all of that together and it put a ton of pressure on Halak to be on top of his game to give his team a chance to even stay competitive, let alone win.

He has done that and more so far in the tournament, and it is the single biggest reason the team that opened the tournament as the biggest long shot to win the whole thing (33/1) is in the final.

From a big picture standpoint Halak is not the best goalie in hockey. But sometimes in a short tournament all you need is a good goalie to get on a hot streak. And he is still capable of putting together those streaks that can carry a team, and he is doing it again in this tournament just as he did in the 2010 playoffs.

Stunner: Team Europe beats Sweden, advances to World Cup Final

TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 25:  Marian Gaborik #12 of Team Europe is congratulated by his teammates after scoring a second period goal against Team Sweden at the semifinal game during the World Cup of Hockey tournament at  Air Canada Centre on September 25, 2016 in Toronto, Canada.  (Photo by Chris Tanouye/Getty Images)
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When the World Cup began earlier this month, Team Europe, a collection of players from eight European countries that did not have their own team in the tournament, was thought to be the weakest team in the field.

Not necessarily a bad team, but one that seemed like it would have trouble keeping up with the hockey superpowers that made up the remainder of the field. That thinking seemed to be confirmed in the pre-tournament games when the North American young stars team skated them out of the building in what the European team admitted was a wakeup call.

All of that is why they still have to actually play the games, and in a short tournament like this anything can happen. 

In this case, anything did happen.

Thanks to their 3-2 overtime win over Team Sweden on Sunday afternoon in the World Cup semifinals, Team Europe has clinched a spot in the World Cup final series and will take on Canada in a best-of-three round that begins on Tuesday night.

It’s been an incredible and almost unbelievable run so far Europe. They frustrated the United States in their opener and shut them out, beat the Czech Republic in overtime, and then on Sunday shut down Sweden to advance to the final. 

The biggest part of their success has to be the play of their goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who has been their best player the entire tournament.

On Sunday, he stopped 37 out of 39 shots and improved his save percentage in the tournament to .946.

The other big star for Team Europe on Sunday was Detroit Red Wings forward Tomas Tatar who scored a pair of goals, including the overtime winner.

After Marian Gaborik scored late in the second period to tie the game at one, Tatar opened the third period with a goal just 12 seconds in when he followed up his own shot and beat Sweden’s Henrik Lundqvist to give Europe its first lead of the game.

Sweden’s Erik Karlsson scored late in the third period to send the game to overtime.

Europe now haas to get ready to face a Canadian team that is 4-0 in the tournament and outscored its opponents by a 19-6 margin.

Canada beat Europe in the first round 4-1.

Sounds like Blues will be more aggressive

GLENDALE, AZ - JANUARY 06:  Head coach Ken Hitchcock of the St. Louis Blues watches from the bench during the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on January 6, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona. The Blues defeated the Coyotes 6-0.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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With their former captain now a member of the Boston Bruins and their coach on year-to-year deals, it’s appropriate to say that the St. Louis Blues are in a period of transitions.

It’s also a convenient choice of words, as it sounds like the Blues are going to change the way they transition on the ice.

That’s the indication given by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and players like Chris Porter approve.

“The play in the neutral zone will fit this team great with the speed and the size that they already have in place,” Porter said. “I don’t think it’s a huge adjustment for the guys, I think it’s just a little tweak here or there.”

Perhaps hiring Mike Yeo had something to do with taking a more modern approach?

Either way, getting more aggressive makes a lot of sense for the Blues, at least on paper.

With David Backes and Troy Brouwer out of town, younger and speedier players get to take more of a role. Some Blues fans will probably view this tweak – big or small – as a long time coming.

Of course, there’s a give-and-take when it comes to situations like these, and becoming more attack-minded sure makes retaining Kevin Shattenkirk that much more important. The underrated blueliner still expects to be moved despite being named an alternate captain, yet you wonder if these changes might prompt GM Doug Armstrong to try to pull some strings to keep him around.

(Giving Alexander Steen a contract extension means that much less room for the likes of Shattenkirk.)

Even if the Blues eventually need to part ways with Shattenkirk, there are some other nice assets who can use this change as a catalyst to push this team up another level.

In an ideal scenario, the Blues would enjoy those improvements and keep Shattenkirk to reap those rewards.