Derek Mackenzie

Which teams really had the best and worst power plays last season? (Power play +/- in 2010-11)

6 Comments

Thanks to a mixture of nostalgia, laziness and stubbornness, many professional sports teams and writers are unwilling to consider “new” statistics. Just look at baseball; Major League Baseball’s statistical schism over the use of such “groundbreaking” stats as On Base Percentage was so strong that it inspired the fantastic Michael Lewis book “Moneyball” (which has been developed into a Brad Pitt vehicle that may or may not be fantastic).

It’s quite possible that it might take decades (if ever) until people can put everything that happens on an ice hockey rink into neat little statistical categories. That being said, various stat-heavy sites are providing new ways of thinking for those unsatisfied with the traditional methods.

Much of the work usually focuses on the defensive side of the game, as many (myself included) consider widely-used defensive stats to be rather lacking. Yet there’s two special teams stats that stick in my craw: power play and penalty kill percentages.

What Power Play Plus/Minus is (and why it’s better than PP %)

For that reason, I shared my* own power play stats a few times already on Pro Hockey Talk. This post will reveal the 2010-11 totals for Power Play Plus/Minus, which follows the simple (but effective) formula: power play goals scored minus shorthanded goals allowed. If you ask me, it provides a more accurate depiction of a team’s power play than the percentage model for two major reasons.

1. Some teams draw more penalties than others, so they might convert less often but score more PP goals overall. Really, isn’t all about how many goals you score, not how “efficient” your power play is?

2. Power play percentage doesn’t factor shorthanded goals allowed, so reckless units are rewarded. Let’s not forget how devastating it can be to allow a goal when you’re on the PP.

For a frame of reference, here are the NHL’s top teams according to the industry standard power play percentage. This table includes power play opportunities, power play goals and shorthanded goals allowed. Note: both of these stats use 2010-11 regular season totals only.

Team PP Opp PPG PP% SHGA
VAN 296 72 24.3 2
SJS 289 68 23.5 7
ANA 285 67 23.5 7
CHI 277 64 23.1 4
DET 301 67 22.3 7
TBL 336 69 20.5 16
MTL 290 57 19.7 6
CGY 318 62 19.5 9
BUF 279 54 19.4 13
STL 279 52 18.6 1
COL 265 49 18.5 11
ATL 289 53 18.3 10
MIN 292 53 18.2 7
DAL 306 55 18 15
OTT 257 45 17.5 4
WSH 263 46 17.5 5
NYI 302 52 17.2 7
NYR 290 49 16.9 5
PHI 295 49 16.6 5
BOS 265 43 16.2 5
LAK 292 47 16.1 6
TOR 326 52 16 8
PHX 289 46 15.9 6
CAR 346 55 15.9 6
PIT 311 49 15.8 6
NSH 269 41 15.2 2
EDM 304 44 14.5 2
NJD 237 34 14.4 8
CBJ 301 42 14 11
FLA 267 35 13.1 5

***

Now, let’s look at how the 30 teams fared in Power Play Plus/Minus.

Team PP Opp PPG SHGA PP +/-
VAN 296 72 2 70
SJS 289 68 7 61
ANA 285 67 7 60
CHI 277 64 4 60
DET 301 67 7 60
TBL 336 69 16 53
CGY 318 62 9 53
MTL 290 57 6 51
STL 279 52 1 51
CAR 346 55 6 49
MIN 292 53 7 46
NYI 302 52 7 45
NYR 290 49 5 44
PHI 295 49 5 44
TOR 326 52 8 44
ATL 289 53 10 43
PIT 311 49 6 43
EDM 304 44 2 42
BUF 279 54 13 41
OTT 257 45 4 41
WSH 263 46 5 41
LAK 292 47 6 41
DAL 306 55 15 40
PHX 289 46 6 40
NSH 269 41 2 39
COL 265 49 11 38
BOS 265 43 5 38
CBJ 301 42 11 31
FLA 267 35 5 30
NJD 237 34 8 26

***

When it comes to the elite PPs, the top six stayed the same and the top 10 was very similar overall. That being said, there were other squads who made big jumps or dropped far when you looked at the mere quantity of goals their units scored and how many shorties they allowed.

  • The Hurricanes only connected on 15.3 percent of their man advantages, but they drew 346 penalties, the highest total in the NHL. That allowed them to score 55 power play goals, making their unit productive in the big picture.
  • The Penguins and Oilers made big jumps (Pittsburgh from 25th to tied for 16th; Edmonton 27th to 18th) because they drew more than 300 power plays. The Oilers only scored 44 goals but rarely shot themselves in the foot, only allowing two shorthanded goals.
  • The Sabres (ninth to tied for 19th) and Stars (14th to 23rd) allowed more than 10 shorties, revealing that their PP units were double-edged swords.
  • The Avalanche found the net on 18.5 percent of their opportunities, but they were tied with the Bruins for fourth-worst at drawing them (265 PP’s) and allowed 11 shorthanded goals. Calling their power play a top-10 unit seems laughable when you put it in the proper context.

***

Stay tuned for a look at Penalty Kill Plus/Minus and a big picture wrap-up later on.

* – Well, I think I introduced these very simple stats, because no one else came forward in the many times I published them. They’re so simple that I wouldn’t be shocked if someone else explored them, though.

Coyotes’ defensive makeover continues with Luke Schenn signing

SAN JOSE, CA - APRIL 20:  Luke Schenn #52 of the Los Angeles Kings in action against the San Jose Sharks in Game Four of the Western Conference First Round during the NHL 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at SAP Center on April 20, 2016 in San Jose, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Getty
Leave a comment

While Brayden Schenn hopes to hammer out a favorable deal with the Philadelphia Flyers, his brother Luke Schenn inked a two-year contract with the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday.

Arizona didn’t confirm these details, but the cap hit looks to be $1.25 million, according to reporters including Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

“We are very pleased to sign Luke to a two-year contract,” New Coyotes GM John Chayka said. “He’s a good, young defenseman and we feel we can optimize his performance here. He will be a solid addition to our blue line.”

Chayka is making some significant changes to the Coyotes’ blueline, even if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is still the star of that group.

The Coyotes traded for and then signed Alex Goligoski. They possibly grabbed a falling star in the draft, too, as they selected Jacob Chychrun. Adding Schenn might not be the last move, either.

Schenn isn’t necessarily an analytics darling, but a two-year, $2.5 million deal is reasonable even with some flaws. This contract seems even more reasonable when you consider the five-year, $18 million deal that just expired.

Report: Maple Leafs, Holland are about $1M apart

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 11: Peter Holland #24 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates up the ice during NHL action against the Montreal Canadiens at the Air Canada Centre April 11, 2015 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Abelimages/Getty Images)
Getty
1 Comment

Peter Holland‘s submitted salary request for arbitration is reportedly more than double what the Toronto Maple Leafs proposed.

With that in mind, Monday’s pending hearing serves as a challenging deadline.

Holland’s asking for $2.1 million in 2016-17 while Toronto is offering $900K, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

This comes a day after the Maple Leafs placed Holland on waivers, advancing the argument that he’d be worthy of a two-way deal. He cleared waivers today.

Granted, the Globe & Mail’s James Mirtle wonders if Holland would clear waivers under normal circumstances:

Holland is a solid player, generating 27 points in 65 games with Toronto last season. He’s a nice enough piece, but with the Maple Leafs in rebuild mode, they’re not exactly anxious to pay supporting cast members more than necessary.

With such a context in mind, it should be intriguing to see how much either side will budge.

At the moment, the Maple Leafs seem to hold the advantage.

Report: Flyers, Schenn disagree on money, term with arbitration looming

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 22:  Brayden Schenn #10 of the Philadelphia Flyers celebrates his goal in the second period against the New York Rangers on April 7, 2015 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Getty
4 Comments

It sounds like the Philadelphia Flyers have some work to do if they hope to avoid an arbitration hearing with Brayden Schenn.

The session would take place on Monday, so the clock is ticking.

While the differences in opinion aren’t outright enormous, the Flyers still need to clean up their cap situation, so every $1 million counts. That – plus the length of a deal – seem to be the issue for the 24-year-old forward and the Flyers, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman:

With the Flyers aiming for a two-year agreement while Schenn just wants one, it’s not quite as simple as merely saying “split the difference.”

Then again, that general logic could prove helpful. Perhaps the best path to a deal would be for the Flyers to edge closer to $5.5 million while convincing Schenn to sign for two years rather than one?

Of course, the Flyers could also offer Schenn more security in exchange for giving up some UFA years:

The physical forward really started to show why he was the fifth pick of the 2009 NHL Draft last season, setting career-highs in goals (26), assists (33) and points (59).

He’s coming off of a two-year, $5 million contract, so Schenn can take heart in realizing he’s heading toward a healthy raise even if he doesn’t get everything he’s asking for.

Wild, Schroeder settle on two-way deal

UNIONDALE, NY - MARCH 24: Jordan Schroeder #10 of the Minnesota Wild skates against the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on March 24, 2015 in Uniondale, New York. The Wild defeated teh Islanders 2-1 in the shootout.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Getty
1 Comment

Jordan Schroeder might be a depth player for the Minnesota Wild – at least when he’s with the big club – yet his situation provided a decent dollop of drama.

The two sides avoided salary arbitration by settling on a deal on Saturday, but not before the Wild “sent a message” by putting him on waivers.

That message was received, as Schroeder’s one-year contract is a two-way deal.

CBC’s Tim Wharnsby has the details regarding how the salary works out:

Schroeder has 107 regular season games under his belt, yet he’s played more games with the Iowa Wild than the Minnesota Wild since joining the organization.

He might not like it, but a two-way deal makes sense considering his standing with the team.

Granted, there’s the outside chance he’ll flourish under Bruce Boudreau; Schroeder is still just 25 and was the 22nd pick of the 2009 NHL Draft.

If he unexpectedly blossoms, he’d have a lot more leverage next time around.