Which teams’ penalty kill units were the best and worst last season? (Penalty kill +/- in 2010-11)

Earlier tonight, I rolled out the 2010-11 Power Play Plus/Minus numbers as an alternative to the traditional power play percentage stat. Here’s a Cliff Notes explanation of the logic: PP% is misleading because it doesn’t reward teams who score the most goals (just the teams who are most efficient) and there is no penalty for allowing shorthanded goals.

For those reasons, I think “PP +/-” paints a far more accurate picture of which NHL teams had the best and worst power plays. Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Pittsburgh Penguins and Edmonton Oilers had better units than many might have realized in 2010-11 while the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche’s PP groups were actually more like double-edged swords.

Re-introducing Penalty Kill Plus/Minus

The league’s measurement of penalty kill units is similarly faulty, which prompts the sister stat Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Naturally, it might not seem as “elegant” when the best team still has a high “minus” number, but this stat rewards teams who don’t recklessly take penalty after penalty and also gives PK units credit for scoring shorthanded goals, which can provide pivotal moments in games. (Just look at how Jordan Staal’s shorthanded goal seemed to shift momentum during the Penguins’ Stanley Cup finals series against the Detroit Red Wings in 2009.)

Before I reveal the 2010-11 PK Plus/Minus results, here are the rankings for the NHL’s 30 teams according to standard PK percentage. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed, penalty kill percentage and shorthanded goals scored.  Note: stats are from the 2010-11 regular season, not the playoffs.

Team TS PPGA PK% SHG
PIT 324 45 86.1 13
WSH 299 43 85.6 7
VAN 312 45 85.6 6
LAK 276 40 85.5 4
NSH 272 41 84.9 5
FLA 267 41 84.6 4
MTL 327 51 84.4 5
TBL 302 49 83.8 1
OTT 294 48 83.7 6
NYR 257 42 83.7 11
NJD 241 40 83.4 3
NYI 310 52 83.2 15
BUF 300 51 83 2
MIN 308 53 82.8 7
PHI 313 54 82.8 13
BOS 265 46 82.6 11
DET 300 53 82.3 5
STL 279 51 81.7 7
ANA 305 57 81.3 7
CAR 272 51 81.2 7
CGY 282 53 81.2 7
CBJ 314 62 80.2 6
DAL 277 55 80.1 10
SJS 274 56 79.6 6
CHI 255 53 79.2 6
PHX 296 64 78.4 5
ATL 285 64 77.5 6
TOR 275 62 77.4 5
EDM 321 74 77 8
COL 314 75 76.1 8

***

Now let’s look at how teams looked according to Penalty Kill Plus/Minus. Stat categories include: times shorthanded, power-play goals allowed and penalty kill plus/minus.

Team TS PPGA SHG PK +/-
NYR 257 42 11 -31
PIT 324 45 13 -32
BOS 265 46 11 -35
WSH 299 43 7 -36
LAK 276 40 4 -36
NSH 272 41 5 -36
FLA 267 41 4 -37
NJD 241 40 3 -37
NYI 310 52 15 -37
VAN 312 45 6 -39
PHI 313 54 13 -41
OTT 294 48 6 -42
STL 279 51 7 -44
CAR 272 51 7 -44
DAL 277 55 10 -45
MTL 327 51 5 -46
MIN 308 53 7 -46
CGY 282 53 7 -46
CHI 255 53 6 -47
TBL 302 49 1 -48
DET 300 53 5 -48
BUF 300 51 2 -49
ANA 305 57 7 -50
SJS 274 56 6 -50
CBJ 314 62 6 -56
TOR 275 62 5 -57
ATL 285 64 6 -58
PHX 296 64 5 -59
EDM 321 74 8 -66
COL 314 75 8 -67

***

Unlike the PP +/- results, the top teams saw some shuffles when you factored in total PP goals allowed and shorthanded goals scored. Here are the most interesting findings.

  • The Rangers went from 10th place to first because they didn’t take many penalties, only allowed 42 PP goals and scored 11 shorthanded. The Bruins climbed from 16th to third place for similar reasons.
  • The Penguins were the only team in the top five to take at least 300 penalties (324), yet they didn’t allow many PP goals and were dangerous shorthanded. Maybe Jack Adams award winner Dan Bylsma might want to put that on his resume …
  • The Canadiens dropped from seventh to being tied for 16th because they took 327 penalties, allowing 51 goals in the process. They also didn’t create a lot of scoring opportunities going the other way, totaling just 5 shorthanded goals.
  • The Lightning dropped from eighth to tied for 20th because they allowed 49 PP goals (302 penalties taken) and only scored one shortie. They definitely didn’t enjoy it when a PK goal was scored either way last season, allowing 16 SHG and scoring just one of their own.
  • Want a snapshot of Colorado’s awful 2010-11 season? They had the league’s worst PP and PK plus/minus totals.

***

Now that we have power play and penalty kill units covered, the last post will put it all together.

Looking at goals, Maurice Richard race from fantasy perspective

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During many seasons, the Maurice Richard race wasn’t very interesting. In a lot of cases, it boiled down to Alex Ovechkin leaving everyone else to battle for second place.

That’s not the case as of today, although it’s refreshing to see Ovechkin back in contention after people wondered if he’d start to fade as an elite sniper.

Ovechkin is neck-and-neck with Nikita Kucherov, Anders Lee, Sean Couturier, and John Tavares. William Karlsson is joined by Tyler Seguin and Brock Boeser, while there are some dark horse candidates at 20 goals in Patrik Laine, Evgeni Malkin, and Nathan MacKinnon.

Fourteen different players are at 20 or more, and seven more are at 19, including Vladimir Tarasenko.

With such a rich field of snipers in mind, it’s been a nice volume year for fantasy hockey. Let’s ponder snipers from a variety of perspectives in hopes that some of this advice might help you make better add/drops, trades, and lineup decisions.

Shooting machines

Ovechkin is no longer miles ahead of everyone else when it comes to shooting volume.

As of today, he’s actually tied with Vladimir Tarasenko for the NHL lead in shots on goal with 193. Now, Tarasenko’s gotten there in two more games, so Ovechkin’s still firing more often than him, but the gap is closing.

There are some other interesting names among the SOG leaders. Tyler Seguin comes in third with 187 SOG in 46 games, on his way to 22 goals. Last season, Seguin scored 26 goals versus 46 assists, suffering from mediocre puck luck (8.6 shooting percentage). If he continues to generate about four per game, his 22-goal pace isn’t that outrageous, and he is in a strong spot to beat his career-best of 37 goals, set twice.

Tarasenko seems like he’ll be in line for a bump, as his 9.8 shooting percentage would be a career-worst (easily) if it stands, and is short of his career average of 13.2 percent.

Two volume shooters who are experiencing better times lately: Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty. Burns now has seven goals on 183 SOG, with those coming after a goalless October. Patches, meanwhile, finally saw a four-game goal streak end on Wednesday; that was quite a refreshing run after he scored zero goals in 12 December games (and heard plenty about it).

Well isn’t that special

Sometimes, when leaning toward “fancy stats,” players get dinged a bit if they’re too reliant on the power play for scoring. In fantasy, power play production can be an added bonus, as a goal can often cover power-play points (or PPG) and even game-winning goals depending upon the context. (Ah, those sweet, sweet, overtime four-on-three situations …)

From a prognosticating standpoint, it’s a mixed bag; even-strength scoring might mean more reliable scoring from certain perspectives, but specializing doesn’t hurt either.

Ovechkin is still lethal from “his office” on the left faceoff dot, yet he hasn’t been as dependent upon special teams as in recent seasons. Eight of his 28 goals have come on the PP so far this season; compare that to 17 of 33 last season and you’ll see that he’s diversified his threat.

When it comes to the Lightning’s power play, Kucherov may actually be more of a facilitator. Only three of his 27 goals have come on the power play, while Steven Stamkos leads the NHL with 12 PPG (a huge chunk of his 17 goals total). Patrik Laine (11 of 20), Evgeni Malkin (10 of 20), and Filip Forsberg (9 of 15) are all scoring a ton on the man advantage through the first half-and-change, too.

In case you’re wondering, Aleksander Barkov leads the NHL with four shorthanded goals, representing all of his shorthanded points so far.

High percentages

Glancing at the top scorers, you’ll see a red flag or two. This doesn’t mean these guys won’t snipe for the rest of 2017-18, just beware that they also may be at risk of cooling off or tricking you into expecting too much.

Anders Lee is third in the NHL with 26 goals, and he figures to be dangerous all season alongside John Tavares and Josh Bailey. Still, his 23.4 shooting percentage is a bit high, even compared to last season’s 17.8 percent (career average: 14.6). He should improve on last season’s career-high of 34 as long as he sticks with those high-end linemates, just don’t overreact if you’re trading for him.

William Karlsson is the other name who stands out among the top 50 in goals. He’s currently ranked sixth with 23 goals, getting there on just 92 SOG (a whopping 25 percent success rate). Karlsson already has more goals (23) than he scored points in 81 games in 2015-16 (9 goals, 21 points) and is almost there versus 81 games in 2016-17 (six goals, 25 points). Of course, he didn’t have opportunities like these in Columbus, so there’s balance both ways. Still, he’s basically doubled his career shooting percentage average of 12.6 percent.

On the flipside, while Duncan Keith isn’t a guaranteed goal machine as a defenseman, he’s at zero goals on 105 SOG. Guys like Keith should get at least a bit more puck luck through the rest of 2017-18, so keep an eye on his ilk.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

Ryan Getzlaf notches 600th career assist

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Milestones are often most useful toward the end of a player’s career, cementing legacies and maybe providing Hall of Fame voters with helpful signposts. That said, they can also stand as reminders that a player is special, even when there are still more chapters to be written.

At 32, Ryan Getzlaf has plenty of time to continue piling up assists after collecting his 600th helper in the Anaheim Ducks’ 5-3 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday.

Now, for a guy who sets the table as beautifully as Getzlaf does, the assist in question wasn’t necessarily typical.

Either way, hitting this milestone gives us a chance to ponder where Getzlaf ranks among the NHL’s best, whether it comes to pure playmaking or point producing overall. With 240 goals to go with those 600 points (and considering his often-scary shot), goalies and defenses have to respect that aspect of his game, too.

Let’s ponder where he ranks among the best in a few ways.

Since Getzlaf debuted in 2005-06, he’s generated those 240 goals and 600 assists for 840 points in just 883 regular-season games. That’s the ninth-highest total in the NHL during that span, trailing Henrik Zetterberg by eight points (his 848 came in 904 games). Getzlaf’s been almost exactly a point-per-game player since he really blossomed in 2007-08, generating 743 points in 744 games, the eighth-best mark. That’s 20 more points that Anze Kopitar in fewer games, and way ahead of his buddy/occasional sparring partner Corey Perry.

Getzlaf is among four players who’ve generated at least 600 assists since 2005-06: Joe Thornton (767), Henrik Sedin (711), and Sidney Crosby (677).

According to Hockey Reference, he’s been in the top 10 in assists on seven occasions and the top 10 in points three times during his career.

The Ducks get knocked for Game 7 failings and other disappointments, yet it’s difficult to pin much of that on Getzlaf.

He has 118 points in 121 career playoff games, the fourth-highest point total since he came into the NHL (once again, right in range of Zetterberg, who’s at 115 in 121 games). You could argue that he’s actually a bit more consistent than Patrick Kane, who’s ahead of him with 123 points but in 127 contests.

Of course, it’s not just about goals and assists, and maybe that’s part of why Getzlaf doesn’t get as much recognition. He can be nasty on the ice, even if Perry tends to draw a greater share of opponents’ ire. Getzlaf didn’t necessarily impress his critics at every turn with how he handled a recent controversy, either.

Also, if you’re the type to mock the follicularly challenged, this flash from the past might be amusing and/or useful:

So, Getzlaf has his critics for both on and off the ice behavior. He’s also had his setbacks, especially if you don’t give him much credit for the Stanley Cup he won as a young player (collecting 17 points in 21 games while averaging 21:43 TOI, by the way).

Love him or hate him, it’s probably fair to call him underrated, at least when you consider how rarely his name comes up in discussions about the league’s most dominant scorers. This latest milestone is a reminder that he’s among the best, particularly when it comes to making plays.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

How going back to junior helped Mathew Barzal become a dominant player

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Every hockey player wants to get to the NHL as fast as possible, but sometimes spending an extra year in junior or in the minors can make a huge difference.

Mathew Barzal played two games with the New York Islanders at the beginning of last season before being sent back to the WHL’s Seattle Thunderbirds. There’s no doubt that Barzal would’ve wanted to spend the year in the NHL like fellow rookie Anthony Beauvillier did, but it didn’t end up happening.

Barzal went back to Seattle with the right attitude. He ended up working on his game and having a huge year for the Thunderbirds, his country and himself. He finished his junior campaign with 10 goals and 79 points in only 41 games. Barzal was an influential part of his team’s first ever WHL Championship, as he accumulated seven goals and 25 points in 16 playoff games. He also added two assists in three games at the 2017 Memorial Cup (Seattle went 0-3 in the tournament).

The Isles forward also served as an assistant captain for Team Canada at last year’s World Junior Hockey Championship. It was his second straight season on Canada’s roster. In his first year, he had three points in five games. Last year, he had an impressive eight points in seven tournament games. Unfortunately for Canada, they lost in the gold medal game to Team USA.

“I think (going back to junior) helped,” Barzal told PHT earlier this week. “I think it just let me play my game. I got to play lots of minutes, make a deep playoff run and win a championship. I had a good coach there in Seattle (Steve Konowalchuk) that kept me honest as a 19-year-old. I went to the World Juniors, I got a lot of good experience playing in big games. I think it was just a good development year.”

Through 46 games this season, the rookie has already amassed 16 goals and an impressive 47 points. We’ll never know if he would’ve been able to accomplish that had he not gone back to the WHL last season, but it certainly didn’t hinder his development.

“(Barzal’s) game has skyrocketed since late in October last year when he went back to junior,” head coach Doug Weight said. “He worked on the things he needed to work on. It’s refreshing to see when you have that tough meeting and you challenge him in those things and the things you’re supposed to say as a coach and a friend. He went back and he worked on it and it showed in his game in Seattle.

“He’s had a lot thrown at him and he’s just been terrific.”

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Isles have Beauvillier, who was developed in a different way. Barzal (15th overall) and Beauvillier (28th overall) were both selected in the first round of the 2015 Draft. Instead of going back to junior, Beauvillier stuck around in the NHL. He finished last season with a modest nine goals and 24 points in 66 games. This year, he seems to have hit a wall while Barzal has been flat-out dominant.

During the Islanders’ bye week earlier this month, they assigned Beauvillier to the minors where he played three games with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (he scored two goals). The 20-year-old has eight goals and four assists in 35 games this season.

Unlike Barzal, Beauvillier just seems to be holding on for dear life in the NHL right now. That doesn’t mean he won’t develop into a solid player, but going back to junior and dominating for a year might have been better for his development (yes, hindsight is 20/20).

Most of the talk around the Islanders organization has been about John Tavares potentially becoming an unrestricted free agent in July. Losing their captain would be devastating, but the fact that they’ve helped develop Barzal into a dominant player would lessen the blow if Tavares decides to leave.

Of course if he sticks around, the Islanders would have a formidable one-two punch down the middle for years to come.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.

NHL on NBCSN doubleheader: Sabres vs. Rangers; Penguins vs. Kings

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NBCSN’s coverage of the 2017-18 NHL season continues with a double header on Thursday night. In the early game, the New York Rangers host the Buffalo Sabres at 7:30 p.m. ET. You can watch the game online by clicking here

These two teams will be going head-to-head for the first time since they met in the 2018 Winter Classic which the Rangers won 3-2 in overtime.

The Sabres are back in action after a six-day break. They went into their bye week with a 3-1 win over Columbus, but they had dropped their previous five games.

The first half of the season couldn’t have gone much worse for Buffalo. Only the Arizona Coyotes have accumulated fewer points (28) than the Sabres’ 31.

Even though their playoff dreams are all but crushed, they’ll still have to find motivation to play out the rest of the season. The wins and losses might not matter at this point, but showing professional pride always does.

“I don’t think you ever lose your motivation,” defenseman Marco Scandella said, per The Buffalo News. “I do what I love. I can’t speak for everyone in this room, but I definitely know that for myself it’s always exciting to play hockey. I’m always motivated. I think what getting a break does for you just gives you time to heal. You get to get away from it for a bit so when you come back you’re just that much more hungry and excited about it.”

As for the Rangers, they were able to put their three-game losing streak to bed with a big 5-1 win over the red-hot Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night. New York gave up the first goal in that game, but they managed to score five unanswered goals. Forward Rick Nash busted out of his 12-game goalless slump with a two-goal performance.

“It was obviously a huge difference to play in goal,” goalie Henrik Lundqvist told The New York Post after the win. “It’s funny how it works. We play our best defensive game in a very long time and we score five goals. I don’t remember the last time we scored five goals.”

As strange as this season has been for the Rangers, they still find themselves in the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. There’s still a lot of games that need to be played, but they’re right in the thick of things in the East.

You’d have to think that a win over Buffalo is a must for a team currently in New York’s position.

In the late game, the Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Los Angeles to take on the Kings at 10:00 p.m. ET. You can watch that game online by clicking here

The Pens saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in last night’s game against the Anaheim Ducks. Evgeni Malkin opened the scoring in the first period, but Pittsburgh watched as Anaheim scored four consecutive goals in the middle frame.

“We did some good things, we just made some big mistakes in the second period,” Sidney Crosby said, per The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “Give up that many goals and that many breakaways in a short period of time, you’re putting yourself in a tough spot.”

Even though the Penguins have four wins in their last five games, they can’t afford to get complacent. They only have a one point lead on the New York Islanders (the Isles have a game in hand) for the last Wild Card spot.

Things won’t get any easier for them, as the team announced that they’ll be without Matt Murray for an indefinite period of time after the passing of his father. They’ll be relying on Tristan Jarry until Murray is able to return.

For the Kings, getting out of their recent funk is a priority. They dropped the two games prior to their bye week and they’ve lost two more decisions since coming back. To make matters worse, three of those four losses have come against Pacific Division rivals (Flames, Ducks, Sharks).

They’re still sitting a playoff spot, but it’s probably not the one they want to be in. The Kings are in the final Wild Card spot in the West. They have the same number of points as Minnesota (53) who is behind them, but Los Angeles has two games in hand. On a positive note, they’re only one point behind the Sharks and Flames for second and third in the division.

Joey Alfieri is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @joeyalfieri.