In every series of every sport, people will tell you that each and every game is pivotal. Some will tell you the first game of the series is most important, some will tell you Game 3 is the most important, and everyone will tell you Game 7 is the most important. Aside from the obvious Game 7, Game 5 has proven to be one of the most pivotal games in the Stanley Cup Final over the years. If past trends continue to hold over the next few nights, officials in Vancouver might want to start preparing Robson St. for the biggest party this side of the 2010 Olympics.
The Stanley Cup Final has been tied 2-2 on 21 separate occasions. Of those 21 series, the team that lost Game 5 has only come back to win the series six times. Having a 71% chance might not be a great percentage for a quiz in school; but every fan in the league would jump at a 71% chance to win the Stanley Cup. After Roberto Luongo’s 1-0 shutout in Game 5, those are exactly the odds Canucks fans are looking at today.
Obviously, if the series was already over the Canucks wouldn’t have been forced to jump on the 2,500 mile charter plane this morning. The old adage in hockey is the final game is always the toughest to win. After blowing a 3-0 lead in the first round, no one should have to remind anyone that in Vancouver’s locker room.
Only 6 out of 21 teams coming back may sound daunting, but that’s actually the good news for the Bruins. Some more good news is that even though it has only happened six times in NHL history, it has happened three times in the last decade. The 2001 Colorado Avalanche, 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning, and 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins were all about to survive a pivotal Game 5 loss to come back and win the series in seven. Boston Bruins can take solace in the fact that it has happened before—and it has been happening fairly frequently in recent years.
Now for the bad news. Of the six teams who were able to come back after losing Game 5, only the 1971 Montreal Canadiens and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins were able to come back and win Game 7 on the road. Since the Montreal Canadiens were the first team to accomplish the feat in 1950, only five other teams have done it in 61 years.
Stats never tell the entire story—but often times they tell a part of the story we wouldn’t otherwise know. There’s no reason the Bruins can’t come back to win Game 6 and 7 to win the Cup. They’ve been extremely competitive in their three losses and took the Canucks behind the woodshed in both games at TD Garden. Stranger things have happened. But with history as it is, I’d much rather have Vancouver’s odds.