The Vancouver Canucks haven’t been to the Stanley Cup finals since 1994 while the Boston Bruins didn’t get this far since 1990. While the teams’ primary concern is obviously how the next 4-7 games play out, we couldn’t help but wonder: what are the chances of these two teams returning next year (or at least in the near future)? Let’s take a look at the summers ahead for both franchises and see if we can answer that question for each side.
Vancouver depth will be challenged
The positive thing about the Canucks’ structure is that they locked up their big-time core players, often to contracts that are cap-friendly. The Sedin twins leave a beyond reasonable $12.2 million combined dent on the Canucks’ cap, Ryan Kesler is a steal at $5 million per year and Roberto Luongo receives a palatable (for now, at least) $5.33 million annual cap hit. The biggest steal of them all is Alex Burrows, who combines grit and goal-scoring ability (he scored 26 goals this season and 35 in 2009-10) for just a $2 million cap hit per year through the 2012-13 season. The team has a chunk of its defense wrapped up in Alex Edler ($3.25 million), Keith Ballard ($4.2 million) and ($4.5 million), but their defense is where the trouble starts.
Here are the Canucks’ restricted and unrestricted free agents going into July, with their previous cap hits and free agent status in parenthesis. Note: the salary cap is expected to be between $60.5-$63.5 million in 2011-12, so the Canucks will have approximately $14.8-$17.8 million with 13 players under contract.
Kevin Bieksa ($3.75 million, unrestricted) and Christian Ehrhoff ($3.1 million, unrestricted): Both defensemen already ranked among the top unrestricted free agent blueliners in a weak 2011 crop going into the playoffs, but they improved that by being the top two scorers for Vancouver in the postseason so far. They might be able to retain one, but keeping both might end up being too expensive.
Sami Salo ($3.1 million, unrestricted): Salo has been notoriously injury prone, so his return to hockey – let alone the Canucks – is in doubt. If he does, it will likely be on a short-term, discount rate. Andrew Alberts ($1.05 million) is unrestricted as well, but who knows if the team will even want him back.
Unrestricted depth forwards: Chris Higgins ($1.6 million), Raffi Torres ($1 million), Tanner Glass ($625K) and Jeff Tambellini ($500K) – The Canucks’ depth players didn’t score a ton, but they helped wear down opponents and make the team tough to play against. Higgins has been an especially good fit after being traded to Vancouver. Restricted depth forwards: Maxim Lapierre ($900K) and Jannik Hansen ($825K) – The team is likely to want both restricted free agent forwards back, but it might come down to money with them as well.
Boston will just try to make some tweaks
While the Canucks have 7-9 roster spots to fill (naturally they could fill some of those spots with minor league players/prospects), the Bruins roster probably won’t see too many huge changes. That’s not to say they lack a tough choice or two. Note: the Bruins will likely have about $8.3-$11.3 million to work with this summer.
Michael Ryder ($4 million, unrestricted) – Ryder’s offensive production hasn’t been reliable, but when he’s hot, he’s a dangerous forward. He produced two nice playoff runs (11 points in 2011, 13 in 08-09) that should really improve his value. The Bruins face a much tougher call about Ryder than many thought going into the postseason.
Tomas Kaberle ($4.25 million, unrestricted) – Not only is Kaberle an unlikely returnee, he probably damaged his free agent value substantially in his belly flop in Boston.
Brad Marchand ($821K) – The agitating rookie was strong in the regular season (18 goals, 41 points) and nearly essential in the playoffs (11 points in 18 postseason games). Despite Tyler Seguin’s explosive two-game burst, Marchand has still been the best rookie in Boston and should get a healthy raise.
If you’re judging the two teams’ future outlooks by stability alone, the Bruins have a substantial advantage. The best part for Boston is that they have a nice amount of cash to make an upgrade (on defense, preferably), retain Marchand and make a judgment call regarding Ryder.
The Canucks have a nice amount of cap space to pick and choose which depth players and defensemen they want to retain and enjoy a nice boost from some affordable contracts. If GM Mike Gillis makes the right calls about paying the right people the right amounts, the Canucks could have a chance to remain among the league’s elite.
Overall, both teams have a great chance to make sure they avoid 17-year and 21-year droughts next time around.