Five Thoughts: Red flags for Boston, kudos for Tampa Bay

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If anything, last night’s Game 1 between Tampa Bay and Boston proved to us that we probably don’t know as much about hockey as we think we do. Our predictions for the series might not turn out too well if the Boston team that came out in Game 1 keeps coming back. Tampa’s handy throttling of the Bruins sent a strong message that they are not to be trifled with. Five Thoughts today deals with what we saw last night.

1. One of the things we were concerned about in this series is how both Guy Boucher and Claude Julien’s defensive strategizing might slow things down and turn the series into a less-than-exciting brand of hockey. It then goes to figure that the Lightning would throw the Bruins a curveball and pressure them all night long instead of sitting back and waiting for them to attack.

Tampa brought the pressure and the Bruins seemed lost as to what they could do, in particular Tomas Kaberle. Changing things up like that clearly bothered the Bruins. Does Boucher keep switching things up to keep the B’s off guard or is this the game plan for the series? Julien’s a smart coach so he’ll find a way to counter but tonight they looked bad and the frustration boiled over at the end of the game with both Milan Lucic and Nathan Horton getting tossed from the game for roughing incidents. Losing their cool like that will only lead to Boston getting knocked out of the playoffs.

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2. Should the Bruins problems on the power play continue, and if Game 1 is any indication they will, then the first guy run out of town in Boston will be Tomas Kaberle. Kaberle was acquired to help an already rough Bruins power play unit and set them straight and turn their power play from a hindrance to a cohesive scoring unit. Instead, the Bruins are looking as lost as ever and Kaberle’s inability to help quarterback their unit  is exacerbating the problem.

For one reason or another, Kaberle is seemingly unwilling to shoot. Opting to pass is good to help guys get going, but when defenses aren’t even respecting his shot and dropping off to cover other players, it turns it into an awkward 4-on-4 situation instead of a power play. That kind of action won’t get it done and now the Bruins are looking like a team trying too hard when they get on the power play. If they were squeezing their sticks too tight, they’d have turned to dust by now. It’s late in the year to discover a magic power play elixir but the Bruins must find it fast.

3. The one guy that could help out on the power play isn’t getting the chance to play much at all. Rookie Tyler Seguin got to play in his first playoff game last night and scored a goal and added an assist. With that sort of production you’d think he would see more of the ice. Instead, Seguin only played 9:38 of the game, better than just Dan Paille and Shawn Thornton. Seguin is an offensive talent meant to do offensive things and he’s played power play time in the past. For a team that’s in desperate need of productivity on the power play and more offense, Seguin could be what they need.

Of course that leads into the question of why coach Claude Julien seems to shy away from playing Seguin at all. Julien’s shown more than enough love for veteran players over rookies in the past. We saw him butt heads with Phil Kessel over his effort level in the past scratching him from playoff games only to see Kessel respond by scoring in bunches when put back in. This isn’t the same sort of battle with Seguin, but Julien’s reticence to use him is head-scratching. Clearly Seguin has skills and he showed that in Game 1, let’s hope he gets to see more ice time because of it.

4. One area to give Tampa Bay credit for is their ability to resist the physical irritation of the Bruins and how they played the role of the wise guy and goaded Boston into taking bad penalties. The Bruins are a tough team and a very proud one and they won’t take kindly to any shenanigans going on on the ice. Last night we saw Johnny Boychuk, Milan Lucic, and Nathan Horton all get goaded into going too far while the Lightning resisted the Bruins’ overly physical efforts to irk them. Tampa Bay was built to not be a fighting team and while some have accused them of being a team that dives to get calls, it’s clear that they won’t be retaliating the way the Bruins want them to. With the B’s so hot under the collar, they’ll have to learn to watch themselves when opting to mix it up with Tampa.

5. The most perplexing part to the Lightning is how they’re getting so much depth scoring. Everyone wants to focus in on Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Steven Stamkos but when their third line is getting just as many scoring chances and finishing their opportunities, it makes them a handful to stop. After all, when you’ve got three lines all evenly capable of scoring on you that makes defending against them a major pain.

Spending your effort defending that big three along with Simon Gagne and Teddy Purcell as well and then having to deal with Sean Bergenheim, Dominic Moore, and Steve Downie who are all having huge playoffs is a nightmare. The Bruins will need to find ways to bottle them all up as well as not giving them a chance on the power play. Giving them power play opportunities means they can get guys like Marc-Andre Bergeron into the act as well so he can bomb away from the point… Just like he did in Game 1.

Looking to make the leap: Haydn Fleury

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This post is a part of Hurricanes day at PHT…

The Carolina Hurricanes have built an impressive stockpile of young defensemen, arguably the best in the NHL.

Looking at their current NHL roster there isn’t one defensemen under contract for this season that is over the age of 26, while three of their best — and youngest — are all signed to long-term deals. Not only are they young, they are also already really, really good and just need a more stable goaltending situation behind them to help the Hurricanes take a big leap forward this season.

For as good and promising as that group already is, there is another young player in the pipeline that hasn’t even had a chance to make an impact yet in 2014 first-round pick (No. 7 overall) Haydn Fleury.

The 21-year-old Fleury is coming off of his first year of pro hockey, spending the 2016-17 season with the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers. Other than missing part of the season due to injury it was mostly a successful pro debut for the young rearguard, appearing in 69 games and scoring seven goals to go with 19 assists and showing considerable improvement down the stretch following a slow start.

The logjam of young defensemen already in Carolina is going to make it tough for Fleury to crack the lineup, but the No. 6 spot on the blue line does seem to be up for grabs between him and Klas Dahlbeck. Even if he doesn’t grab that spot at the start of the season it seems reasonable to assume that at some point during the season — whether it be due to injury, a trade, or just a lack of performance from somebody else — that he is going to make his NHL debut.

When he does it will be just another promising young player added to a defensive core that already boasts Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. Given the contracts Faulk, Slavin and Pesce are signed to, and the fact Hanifin and Fleury are still on their entry level deals it gives the Hurricanes a ton of flexibility when it comes to constructing their roster. Any of them would be attractive pieces in trade talks to make improvements elsewhere, or they can be the foundation of the defense — and the team itself — for the next six or seven years for a remarkably affordable price.

Scott Darling will be the key to the Hurricanes’ season

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This post is a part of Hurricanes day at PHT…

A few numbers to keep in mind about the Carolina Hurricanes as they prepare to enter the 2017-18 season:

  • Over the past three seasons only one team in the NHL — the Los Angeles Kings — has allowed fewer shots on goal per game than the 27.3 allowed by the Hurricanes. An impressive number, especially given how young their defense has been during that stretch.
  • Despite those low shot totals the Hurricanes are only 19th in the NHL in goals against. The are the only team in the top-eight in shots against that finished outside of the top-12 in goals against and the only one that has not made the playoffs at least once. Two of those teams have made the Stanley Cup Final at least once. Four have made the the Conference Finals at least once.

So how is a team that is so good at suppressing shots so bad at preventing goals and winning games?

Goaltending.

They are hoping that newly acquired goalie Scott Darling, getting what will be his first chance at a full-time starting job, will be able to help fix that issue.

Over that same three-year stretch mentioned above, Hurricanes goalies — a revolving door made up of Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, and Anton Khudobin — have not managed a save percentage that placed them higher than 26th in the entire league in any one season. That is a pretty significant problem and it has been, perhaps, the single biggest factor in the team’s lack of success on the ice. No one position in hockey can impact the fortunes of a team more than a goalie. Carey Price has taken an average Canadiens team and made them a contender. The opposite has been happening in Carolina.

Let’s just look at this past season as an example, when the duo of Ward and Lack finished with a .904 mark, with Ward (playing in 61 of the games) leading the way at .905.

If the Hurricanes had been able to replace Ward’s performance with a league average number (in the .912 range) in his 61 starts the Hurricanes would have allowed 12-14 fewer goals right off the bat. A league average duo across the board would have cut close to 20 goals off the board over 82 games. That is a potentially significant swing and Darling is the newest goalie that will get a chance to make it happen.

Darling spent the past three seasons serving as Corey Crawford‘s backup in Chicago and playing at a level that made him one of the league’s best No. 2 goalies. Among the 58 goalies that have appeared in at least 60 games over the past three seasons Darling’s .923 save percentage has him sixth in the NHL behind only Carey Price, Matt Murray, Antti Raanta (another backup getting a chance to start this season), Devan Dubnyk and Braden Holtby.

The test for him is whether or not he can maintain that level of play — or anything close to it — when he is counted on to be the No. 1 goalie that gets the top teams every night.

If he can be, the Hurricanes are going to have a great shot to end that eight-year playoff drought given how good their defense already is and how many young, talented forwards they have in their lineup.

If he is not, it will probably be more of the same — a promising young team that just seems to keep falling short in the regular season.

Poll: Will the Hurricanes be a playoff team this season?

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This post is a part of Hurricanes day at PHT…

It has been eight years since the Carolina Hurricanes qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Since then they have gone through three coaches, numerous roster constructions and a still ongoing rebuilding effort.

For the past three or four years it seems as if the Hurricanes have entered the new season as a popular sleeper pick to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, and things never quite seem to work out for one reason or another (recently goaltending has been a big reason). Those expectations are back once again this season.

They had a pretty strong finish to the 2016-17 season with an 11-5-5 mark down the stretch and have an impressive young core of players in place, mostly on their defense that is stacked with a ton of already good — and very underrated — players all under the age of 24, with several of them now locked in to long-term contracts. Up front Jeff Skinner is one of the NHL’s best goal scorers, while Sebastian Aho and Victor Rask are looking like two of the best young forwards in the league. They attempted to complement that young core this summer with some pretty significant veteran additions, including Justin Williams, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marcus Kruger and Scott Darling.

Their young players are still at an age where they have room to improve, and they made some significant additions around them (and do not forget Jordan Staal, who is still a really good player even if he carries a huge contract). Will those improvements be enough to help the Hurricanes make up eight points in the standings and get back to the playoffs for the first time since the 2008-09 season?

Under Pressure: Bill Peters

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This post is a part of Hurricanes day at PHT…

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that Bill Peters is a pretty good hockey coach. In his three years behind the Carolina Hurricanes’ bench his teams have always played hard, they have been competitive, they have seen great growth from their young core of players during their rebuild, and they have consistently been one of the top possession teams in the league. There are a lot of positives and a lot of reasons for optimism for what might be there in the coming seasons.

One thing there has not been: A trip to the postseason. There hasn’t been one in Carolina since the 2008-09 season as three different coaches have been unable to reach the playoffs during that stretch. So it hasn’t necessarily been just a coach thing.

It doesn’t seem that Peters is starting the season on the hot seat, and general manager Ron Francis recently gave his coach a vote of confidence heading into the season saying exactly that.

“I think Bill Peters is one hell of a hockey coach, so I would not put him on the hot seat and in that category. Not at all,” Francis said this week, via the News & Observer. “This is guy who has shown he’s a hell of a coach with a very young team. I don’t think you hold him accountable for missing the playoffs the last couple of years, based on the situation we were in and what we were trying to build.”

All fair points, and he specifically points out the playoff drought and what the team was going through.

But professional sports is still a bottom line business, and eventually results will begin to matter. Especially after the offseason the Hurricanes had that saw them bring in Justin Williams, Marcus Kruger, Trevor van Riemsdyk and goaltender Scott Darling who can hopefully fix the team’s biggest and most glaring weakness in most recent years (the goaltending position). Combine those additions with a promising young core, led by Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm and that defense and expectations are going to start to build.

Peters has also been given a leash that most NHL coaches do not get. Over the past 30 years I found only 12 other examples of coaches that coached a single team to three consecutive non-playoff seasons.

  • Three of those coaches (Terry Crisp, Curt Fraser and Rick Bowness) were coaches of literal expansion teams that were just entering the league.
  • Seven of them were fired just after the third non-playoff season.
  • One of them (Ron Wilson) was fired late in what would have been the fourth consecutive non-playoff season.
  • Wayne Gretzky was given four consecutive non-playoff seasons in Arizona before he was no longer behind the bench. His replacement, Dave Tippett, was given five consecutive non-playoff seasons after some early initial success with the team. That run ended this offseason when he mutually agreed to step away from the team.
  • Lindy Ruff made it through three non-playoff seasons in Buffalo in the early 2000s and managed to stick with the team for another eight years. But his playoff drought followed four consecutive playoff seasons, including three years where the team advanced to at least the second round and one year where they won the Eastern Conference.

The bottom line with Peters is this: A good coach that probably isn’t to blame for the team’s recent lack of success, but given the shelf life of coaches in the NHL and how few of them get to stick around for this many seasons without the playoffs, and the offseason additions made by the front office, the team is going to have to start winning. Soon.