Why prospective teams shouldn’t give up on Ilya Bryzgalov

When it comes to assessing a player’s performance in the playoffs, many people fixate on the results rather than why something happened.

Ilya Bryzgalov allowed two back-breaking goals to begin the Phoenix Coyotes’ potentially fatal Game 3 loss and both of them made the excellent Russian goalie look pretty bad. Let’s be honest, Bryzgalov hasn’t been able to follow up his great regular season play with outstanding work in the postseason, leading many to wonder if his pending free agent stock is plummeting.

One thing that people seem to overlook when discussing his playoff struggles: he faced the Detroit Red Wings the last two years, aka one of the NHL’s greatest offenses. The Red Wings were the second highest scoring team in the NHL this year, with their 261 goals only trailing the Vancouver Canucks by one.

Yes, there have been goalies who managed to shut down the Red Wings offense over the years, but let’s not forget that Jean-Sebastien Giguere (the guy who once played in front of Breezy in Anaheim) worked his miracles in the clutch-and-grab era.

Bryzgalov’s defense is hanging him out to dry.

As regrettable as Breezy’s series has been, his defense hasn’t exactly been world-class, either. Bryzgalov faced 101 shots in the last three games, meaning that Phoenix allowed an average of 33.6 shots per contest so far. To put that number in perspective, the Carolina Hurricanes allowed 33.2 shots per game during the 2010-11 season, the worst total in the NHL. While it’s true that the ‘Yotes also allowed 32.6 shots per game in the regular season, that tells me that Bryzgalov’s been a life preserver for a team that probably shouldn’t be in the playoffs in the first place.

To expect him to be superman every single game is unrealistic.

In these past two series, Bryzgalov allowed 12 goals in three games against Detroit in 2011 and 24 in seven contests in 2010. Those aren’t gorgeous numbers, but to call him a playoff “choker” is just short-sighted, especially when you consider how well he played behind a competent team in Anaheim.

Breezy actually put up outstanding postseason numbers on a good team.

He was astounding in 11 games played in 2005-06, earning six wins, three shutouts, an all-world 94.4 save percentage and 1.46 GAA. He was almost as good when he subbed for Giguere in the Ducks’ first round series during their 06-07 Cup win, earning three victories, a 92.2 save percentage and 2.25 GAA. Ultimately he gave way to Giguere’s seniority in those two playoff runs, but one could argue that Anaheim would have been A-OK with Breezy in net instead.

So what’s the basic takeaway? He’s actually been just fine in the small sample of playoff games he’s appeared in. Even including his sometimes-ugly numbers against the Red Wings, Bryzgalov has nice career playoff stats: a 91.9 save percentage and 2.45 GAA. The only number that’s mediocre is his 12-12 record, but that’s a stat that has as much to do with the team as it does with the goalie.

Smart GMs will see the big picture with Bryzgalov.

It’s reasonable to say that these last two series hurt Bryzgalov’s ability to make the kind of $5-$6 million salary that franchise goalies acquired before the 2010 correction/meltdown.* There will be many GMs who will totally pass judgment on Breezy, especially if they take the type of stance that Jay Feaster took toward Tomas Vokoun.

A savvy GM will consider the very real possibility that Bryzgalov helped a shaky team overachieve until it ran into the Red Wings buzz saw. That same general manager could save some money at the bargaining table even if he knows that his questionable stats are quite deceptive.

Ultimately, I actually think Bryzgalov should stick with the Coyotes. If he ventures out of that franchise (a more likely possibility if the team moves), then a team like Tampa Bay or Colorado would be wise to scoop him up. It could be a great choice, too, as long as they provide him with more than the threadbare supporting cast offered by Phoenix.

* – Your stance that the 2010 free agent goalie market was an example of self-correction or just a meltdown says a lot about how you think NHL netminders should be paid.

Eddie Lack expects to be released from hospital on Monday night

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As scary as the situation was for Carolina Hurricanes goalie Eddie Lack, the good news continues to pour in.

First, the Hurricanes provided an update that he had “full feeling in his extremities” while under observation at a hospital. This followed the promising sign that he was able to give a “thumbs up” gesture while being taken off the ice on a stretcher after the Hurricanes’ 4-3 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings.

The best news came late on Monday night, however, as Lack himself tweeted that he expects to head back home as early as this late evening/early morning:

That’s fantastic news. Video of that scary collision with Andreas Athanasiou can be seen in the video above this post’s headline.

Blues, Flames take care of business (Islanders … do not)

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For a while there, it seemed like the idle Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs would be Monday’s “winners.” That changed when the Carolina Hurricanes salvaged a standings point and the Tampa Bay Lightning stormed back to beat the Blackhawks.

Still, there were some teams who came through (beyond the Lightning) and those who fell flat, so let’s cover some of the results in short.

West teams get it done

Unlike their counterparts out East, West teams jockeying for position avoided “unforced errors” in losing to non-playoff teams.

The St. Louis Blues beat the Arizona Coyotes 4-1 while the Calgary Flames topped the Colorado Avalanche 4-2. Johnny Gaudreau generated his 200th point (and 201st) in Calgary’s win, while Alex Steen generated four assists. (Vladimir Tarasenko also enjoyed a three-point night.)

This keeps the Blues and Flames in position to advance. St. Louis is one point behind the Nashville Predators for third in the Central while the Flames are a point behind both the Sharks and Oilers for second and third in the Pacific (while remaining in shouting distance of the division title).

East teams stumble, some get over it

Again, the Lightning fought through hurdles to win and the Hurricanes managed that “charity point.”

Overall, East teams struggled. The New York Islanders fell to the Predators by a score of 3-1. Your mileage may vary on the Florida Panthers’ chances, especially after they fell 4-2 to the Buffalo Sabres.

Brian Gionta scored in his 1,000th game as Buffalo won, by the way.

Here’s what the race for the final spot in the East looks like after tonight:

Final wild card: Bruins – 84 points in 75 games played

Lightning – 83 points in 75 GP
Islanders – 82 points in 75 GP
Hurricanes – 80 points in 74 GP

Victor Hedman might just force his way into the Norris argument

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For quite some time this season, the Norris Trophy race felt a bit like “Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson and [insert token finalist].” As it turns out, Victor Hedman is making it a pretty interesting three-horse race.

With Burns and Karlsson idle on Monday, Hedman continued to go on the best offensive tear of his already-impressive career, contributing three assists to the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 5-4¬†overtime win against the Chicago Blackhawks.

As much credit as forwards Nikita Kucherov and Jonathan Drouin deserve in pushing Tampa Bay in Steven Stamkos‘ absence, Hedman has been an all-world blueliner for a Lightning team with a defense that isn’t really surrounding him with great talent.

He’s serving as a workhorse when his team needs him the most:

Now, when you look at the numbers, it’s probably fair to say that Hedman comes in third among the likely finalists in simple categories:

Brent Burns: 27 goals (!), 72 points in 75 games, +16 rating, 24:52 time-on-ice average

Erik Karlsson: 14 goals, 67 points in 74 games, +7, 26:53 minutes per game (fourth highest average in the NHL)

Victor Hedman: 15 goals, 65 points in 72 games, +2 rating, came into Monday with average of 24:15 minutes per game.

Looking at those breakdowns, you might wonder why someone wouldn’t just flippantly hand Hedman the “bronze medal” and a pat on the back … but things get more interesting if you ponder the all-around impact of those three.

Now, traditional-thinkers who slam risky defensemen for their mistakes often overstate such arguments. Both Burns and Karlsson tilt the ice in their teams’ favors, usually to profound degrees.

Still … Hedman locks opponents down to a truly elite degree and scores at a similar rate. Hedman could very well own the “two-way” argument; you could perhaps see his case most clearly when you compare his “HERO” chart to those of Burns and Karlsson, especially from the perspective of conceding shots.

Again, Burns remains the likely winner, and he would be a deserving one. You could make a solid Hart Trophy argument for Burns, in addition to tabbing him as the Norris frontrunner.

Even so, voters would be wise to take Hedman’s case seriously, especially as the Lightning continue their improbable playoff push.

Lightning storm back against Blackhawks, finish one point out of playoffs

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Who would have thought that the Tampa Bay Lightning would rally back from a 4-1 deficit tonight? Then again, who expected them to be so close to a playoff spot mere weeks ago, when they were sellers at the trade deadline?

The Lightning continue to show that they won’t just roll over and die, scoring four unanswered goals to beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-4 in overtime on Monday.

While Jonathan Drouin was a catalyst for the second-period rally, it was an unlikely scorer who clinched the victory, as Yanni Gourde ended a thrilling run of 3-on-3 chances with the overtime-winner.

Really, it might have been fitting. Things looked glum when Tomas Jurco scored his first goal of the season against the Lightning, then the mood was totally flipped when Gourde’s second tally of 2016-17 grabbed a huge win.

With the Islanders losing to the Predators, the Hurricanes only managing a “loser point” against the Red Wings and the Bruins idle, Tampa Bay is a breath away from a playoff berth:

Final wild card: Bruins – 84 points in 75 games played

Lightning – 83 points in 75 GP
Islanders – 82 points in 75 GP
Hurricanes – 80 points in 74 GP

Yes, all of a sudden, a long-shot postseason run seems quite attainable.

Maybe the Lightning would prefer it if we kept counting them out, though?