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Crunching the numbers from an amazing run by Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins

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Look, I understand the fact that many hockey fans suffer from the occasional bout of Sidney Crosby overload. Still, sometimes you just have to put your puck-based prejudices aside and marvel at some amazing hockey craftsmanship. Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins are simply on an amazing run right now – and with the team on its first 10 game winning streak since 1999 – I thought it might be wise for us to stop and smell the statistical roses.

Pittsburgh’s impressive streaks

You can break down the Penguins’ amazing run in a few different ways. Most obviously, they are on a 10-game winning streak. However, you can go back a little further to find a longer run of impressive play; since losing twice in a row to start the month of November, the Penguins are 13-1-1 in 15 games (earning 27 out of a possible 30 points in that span). They are also 13-2-1 during Crosby’s 16-game points streak.

Some of the other numbers from Crosby’s 16-point streak

It’s easy to isolate the big, obvious numbers from Crosby’s run: 18 goals and 15 assists for 33 points in those 16 games. Let’s look at some of the other numbers, though: he earned a +12 rating during that run and supplied three game winning goals. He also won at least 50 percent of his faceoffs in 10 of those 16 contests, if you’re into that kind of thing.

Crosby carries the offense

By my calculations, the Pittsburgh Penguins scored 52 goals during Crosby’s 16-game streak. Counting his goals and assists, Crosby accounted for 33 of those goals, meaning that an amazing 63.46 percent of the team’s goals were created by Crosby.

Meanwhile, Evgeni Malkin has been pretty solid (if inconsistent) when he’s been healthy during that stretch: five goals and eight assists for 13 points in 13 games played. The only issue is that those results are spotty; that span includes one three goal and one three assist game. (See his game logs.)

(Still, it’s pretty stunning that adding up the Penguins’ second highest point producer [Kris Letang, 26 points] with Malkin [22] only equals Crosby’s outstanding output.)

It’s an amazing achievement for Crosby, but the natural question is: what happens when he hits a snag, something one can only assume might happen during an 82-game season?

Marc-Andre Fleury’s resurgence

The other marquee talent driving the Penguins’ amazing run is Fleury. His redemption is sweet retribution for the patient Pittsburgh front office and proof that it’s important to give young goalies the time to get their games back together when they falter. (Carey Price is another prime example.)

Honestly, I’ve been pretty tough on Fleury, so here is a stats-based olive branch.

Numbers from his nine game winning streak

  • He allowed only 14 goals in those nine games, with four against Carolina being the most in any single contest.
  • Fleury stopped 252 out of 266 shots for a save percentage of approximately 94.7 percent.
  • The 2003 No. 1 overall pick earned a shutout in those nine games and only dipped below a 90 percent save percentage once: against Carolina.

And if you want to know his numbers during the Crosby streak …

  • In the 13 games Fleury played during Crosby’s 16-point streak, he went 11-1-1 with 23 goals allowed. He stopped 336 out of 359 shots for a 93.59 save percentage.

So, as you can see, Crosby isn’t the only Penguins player on a hot streak. The oddest bit might be that his most common even-strength teammates (Chris Kunitz and Pascal Dupuis) are experiencing fairly bland statistical seasons. Kunitz only has 17 points and Dupuis only scored 13, behind three Pittsburgh defensemen.

Points from defensemen

Speaking of that, three of the team’s top six scorers over the entire 2010-11 season are blueliners. Letang has an astounding 26 points in 28 games while Paul Martin produced 14 and Alex Goligoski came in right behind with 13.

Conclusions

I hate to be a downer, but the Penguins should heed a bit of a warning: one player producing more than 63 percent of your offense obviously places a tremendous burden on that individual. Even if that individual is one of the best players in the world.

Then again, Malkin is hobbled and the team is playing without valuable two-way center Jordan Staal, so you cannot blame the Penguins for leaning on their red-hot captain so much.

The best part about Fleury’s resurgence is that they also know that they have a capable backup in Brent Johnson, who stole much of the young goalie’s thunder in the beginning of the season.

All disclaimers about balance aside, the Penguins are winning at an amazing rate, whether those victories come from blowouts (like a 7-2 drubbing of the Blue Jackets) or hard-fought one goal wins (such as last night’s 2-1 squeaker against the Devils). In a sport with such a small margin of error, you have to take what you can get … and Pittsburgh is taking it all right now.

If there’s an expansion draft, which goalie should Pittsburgh protect?

Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) misses on a shot on Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Matt Murray (30) during the third period of Game 1 in an NHL hockey Stanley Cup Eastern Conference semifinal series Thursday, April 28, 2016, in Washington. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
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Marc-Andre Fleury could have started in Game 3 on Monday, but didn’t. Instead the Penguins went with Matt Murray, who rewarded their trust by stopping 47 shots in a 3-2 victory over Washington.

What’s remarkable is that no part of that story is surprising at this point. Under different circumstances, the Penguins might have started Fleury as soon as he had the green light to return from his concussion, but why switch course when Murray’s been excelling between the pipes?

But that’s just the reality of these set of circumstances, right? Shouldn’t the starting gig eventually revert back to Fleury given that he is the established upper-echelon goaltender while Murray is still fairly inexperienced?

Under normal circumstances that would seem like a reasonable conclusion and in the short-term that might be the road the Penguins go down, but as Sportsnet recently brought up a potential expansion draft has the power to change things.

As Sportsnet reported:

An interesting aspect of the recent deal worked out by the NHL and NHL Players’ Association regarding expansion draft rules is that only players with a full no-movement clause will have to be protected by their team, according to a source.

Fleury’s contract includes a no-movement clause for the purposes of waivers or being assigned to the American Hockey League, but it is limited when it comes to trades. Each year he submits a 12-team list of teams where he can’t be dealt.

As a result, he’s not exempt from the expansion process and the Penguins would have to decide between protecting either him or Murray if both remained on the roster through the end of next season. It might ultimately force general manager Jim Rutherford into making up his mind sooner in order to trade one away and get a return on the asset.

Sportsnet goes into detail about Murray’s performance in the playoffs as well as the situation this has left Marc-Andre Fleury in and it’s a good read. For our purposes right now, let’s focus on the what if scenario of that possible expansion draft.

It might all sound premature given that Murray only has 19 total playoff and regular season NHL games under his belt and certainly there’s a lot that could happen between now and any potential expansion draft that would make the Penguins’ decision easier. At the same time, it’s worth keeping in mind that the 21-year-old goaltender didn’t come out of nowhere this season. The majority of people might not have paid attention to Murray prior to this season, but his 2014-15 AHL rookie campaign was nothing short of incredible and he remained dominant in the AHL in 2015-16 before getting summoned.

In that context, Murray is more than just a hot goaltender and even if he gets lit up in Game 4 tonight resulting in Fleury being thrust back into service, that wouldn’t dismiss this conversation as no longer relevant. Either way the Penguins decision in an expansion draft would come down to picking between the relative safety of 31-year-old Fleury or the high potential of Murray.

It’s a tough call to make, but the consolation for the Penguins is that they won’t be the only team forced to make difficult decisions as the result of an expansion draft, should one happen.

PHT Morning Skate: Hartley’s not the first to get fired within year of winning Jack Adams Award

Calgary Flames head coach Bob Hartley sets a play during overtime of an NHL hockey game against the Boston Bruins in Boston, Thursday, March 5, 2015. The Flames defeated the Bruins 4-3 in overtime. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
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PHT’s Morning Skate takes a look around the world of hockey to see what’s happening and what we’ll be talking about around the NHL world and beyond.

It took less than a year for Bob Hartley to go from winning the Jack Adams Award as the league’s top coach to being fired. That might seem like an incredible drop, but Hartley’s not the first to go through this. (Calgary Sun)

Speaking of the Hartley firing, Mark Giordano said “it’s an eye-opener for a lot of our players.” (Calgary Sun)

Pittsburgh has a 2-1 edge in its second round series, but between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, the Capitals captain has been the bigger contributor. (CSN Mid-Atlantic)

After spending a season with the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, Mark Morris has decided to go back to coaching college hockey. (The News & Observer)

If you have $7.19 million lying around, you might be able to buy Ryan Getzlaf‘s Corona del Mar house. (Orange County Register)

Finally, on a different note, the Tampa Bay Times have bought and shutdown the Tampa Tribune, as USA Today reported. That ended Erik Erlendsson’s tenure as the Tampa Bay Lightning’s beat writer for the Tribune and Lightning coach Jon Cooper took it upon himself to write this:

Fights, hits and a blown kiss: Stars and Blues get nasty

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Things were getting out of hand between the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues on the scoreboard in an eventual 6-1 Blues win.

They were also getting a little raucous on the ice when it was clear that the Stars weren’t going to stage a comeback.

Jamie Benn was whistled for cross-checking Alex Pietrangelo, but it was Stephen Johns‘ hit from behind on Pietrangelo really revved up the violence.

Watch that hit and then the scrum that ensued in the video above, which included a scary display of an angry Ryan Reaves … who got creative at the end.

You may also want the kiss alone, so here it is:

Memo: rough stuff might not work so well against the Blues.

Read about that blowout here.

Blues bombard Stars, go up 2-1 in series

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Sometimes a final score is misleading. In the case of the St. Louis Blues’ 6-1 thrashing of the Dallas Stars, it might just be the start of the story.

Honestly, the most positive thing the Stars can say is “Well, at least it was just one game.”

It was one ugly game, however, and now the Blues hold a 2-1 series lead with a chance to really take control if they can win Game 4 at home.

The Blues dominated just about every category on Tuesday, firing more shots on goal, enjoying better special teams play and throwing more hits. They even blocked a higher number of shots, which often isn’t the case for the squad that carries play.

This leaves the Stars picking up the pieces, especially when it comes to their work in their own end.

Do you put greater blame on struggling goalies Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi or is this more about the Stars’ lax defensive coverage? The scary answer may be “Both,” and the Stars likely know that they need to find answers quickly.

On the bright side for Dallas, it is just one game … and the Blues were searching for answers of their own after Game 1.

We saw the Blues turn things around with these two straight wins, so now the Stars must show that they can gather themselves and play the attacking, out-score-your-mistakes style that got them here.

Granted, they may have to keep an eye out for supplemental discipline after some rough stuff toward the end of the game.