Ryan Miller needs more help if the Sabres want to shake slump

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When I first realized that the Buffalo Sabres were about to suffer yet another significant beating, I couldn’t help but make an immediate assumption that something is very, very wrong with Ryan Miller. Yet when I peeked at his page at hockey reference.com, I saw that his save percentage was a very respectable 91.9 percent. (Although, to be fair, that number will go down after tonight’s jarring loss against the Philadelphia Flyers).

Does that mean that Miller’s off the hook? Well, not completely.

After wrestling the title of Perceived Best Goalie in the World away from luminaries such as Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist and so on thanks to a splendid 2009-10 season and Olympic run, Miller is struggling. But he’s not struggling uniformly; instead, Miller either puts together an outstanding effort or lays down a stink bomb.

While he played well in two losses, it’s still stunning to look at winning Miller versus losing Miller.

Ryan Miller in wins (three games)

2-1 win at Ottawa: 25 saves on 26 shots for one goal allowed.

4-1 win at Atlanta: 17 saves on 18 shots for one goal allowed.

6-1 win at New Jersey: 26 saves on 27 shots for one goal allowed.

So, in three wins, Miller stopped 68 out of 71 shots and only allowed one goal per game. Notice the fact Buffalo allowed an average of less than 24 shots per game and no more than 27 in any single contest in those wins.

Ryan Miller in losses (six games)

6-3 loss at home vs. Rangers: 22 saves on 27 shots for five goals allowed (plus empty-netter).

4-3 loss at home vs. Chicago: 26 saves on 30 shots for four goals allowed.

1-0 overtime loss at home vs. Devils: 34 saves on 35 shots for one goal allowed.

2-1 loss at home vs. Canadiens: 26 saves on 28 shots for two goals allowed.

4-2 loss at home vs. Ottawa: 28 saves on 31 shots for three goals allowed.

6-3 loss in Philadelphia: 28 saves on 33 shots for five goals allowed.

Now, it’s not like Miller has been that bad in every loss. He didn’t have any goal support in a great performance against New Jersey and only one goal to work with when he was solid at home against Montreal.

Any goalie’s numbers will look worse in losses, but there’s certainly a stark contrast so far for Miller (and the team in front of him). He stopped 164 out of 184 shots in those six losses, which would yield an 89.1 save percentage. Those 20 goals in six games makes for a 3.33 goal per game average to boot (his actual GAA would be a little higher considering the times he was pulled from the net).

As you can see, when the shots pile up past that 27 shot threshold, things slip considerably for the all-world goalie. Obviously, he played well in some of those losses, though, as his team only gave him one goal to work with against Montreal and none against the Devils. The Sabres allowed an average of 30.6 shots per game in defeat, about seven more than in victories.

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So, the question is, will Miller and the Sabres snap out of it? Well, it’s hard to say. If the “Miller usually falters when his defense gives up 28 or more shots” trend continues, it’s a little shaky as 30 shots allowed seems like the Mendoza line in the NHL so far. (Buffalo allows 27.9 per game, but I would guess that number didn’t factor in tonight’s 33 shots allowed.)

The most disturbing number of them all, though, is the team’s overall home record of 0-4-1. You’d think that they would play better in Buffalo with the benefit of choosing their own defensive matchups, but that hasn’t been the case so far.

Ultimately, Miller is still an elite goalie, but the Sabres are probably too dependent on him to play that way every night. An already mediocre defense lost some stable (but not spectacular) pieces such as Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder and their offense is OK but far from dominant, so there isn’t much room for error.

My guess is that Miller will straighten things to some extent, but it won’t be enough to win the Northeast. Making the playoffs isn’t out of the question yet, but the Sabres need to play better hockey in front of their all-world goalie to have a legitimate chance.

Goalie nods: Andersen back for Leafs

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Curtis McElhinney held up his end of the bargain.

Now, it’s back to Frederik Andersen.

After missing the last game (well, one-and-a-half games) to an upper-body injury, Andersen will resume his regular No. 1 duties when the Leafs take on the Preds in Nashville this evening.

Andersen was initially hurt Saturday in Buffalo, then sat out Tuesday’s big win over Florida — one that McElhinney called the biggest start of his career, and responded to by stopping 25 of 27 shots.

It’ll be interesting to see how Andersen fares in his first game back, and if he continue his strong month of March (6-1-2 in his last 10 games, with a .936 save percentage). The Preds have played well of late, winning seven of their last nine, and haven’t lost at Bridgestone since Mar. 4.

For the Preds, Pekka Rinne starts in goal.

Elsewhere…

Thomas Greiss, who’s lost his last two starts, gets another shot as the desperate Isles take on the Flyers. Philly will counter with Steve Mason, who’s riding a personal three-game winning streak.

Eddie Lack remains out with a neck injury, so Cam Ward starts when the ‘Canes host the Jackets. No word yet on a Columbus starter, but Sergei Bobrovsky has played three straight, including Tuesday’s win over Buffalo.

— The B’s are desperate for wins, so no surprise they’re riding Tuukka Rask into tonight’s tilt against Dallas. The visiting Stars have yet to name a starter, but Antti Niemi is likely.

James Reimer and Roberto Luongo are both out injured, so Reto Berra starts for the Panthers while newly recalled Adam Wilcox backs up. For the host Habs, it’ll be Carey Price.

— Another team desperate for points? The Bolts, who will go with Andrei Vasilevskiy after he was hooked from — then returned to — Monday’s wild comeback victory against Chicago. Petr Mrazek goes for the visiting Red Wings.

Alex Stalock, recalled yesterday, will bump Darcy Kuemper from the No. 2 gig in Minnesota, and make his regular season debut. He’ll be up against Craig Anderson in the Ottawa goal.

— The Ducks just keep winning with Jonathan Bernier in goal, so why rush back John Gibson? That will continue to be the plan tonight, as Anaheim visits Winnipeg. Michael Hutchinson starts for the Jets.

— It’s Martin Jones versus Cam Talbot when the Sharks take on the Oilers in Edmonton.

Pre-game reading: On Matthew Tkachuk, the NHL’s newest villain

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— Up top, Mike Milbury and Keith Jones were none too impressed with the Los Angeles Kings’ response to Matthew Tkachuk last night in Calgary. Milbury took aim at Drew Doughty for turning the other cheek, while Jones ripped Jake Muzzin for turning down a fight.

— Tkachuk is the “villain we need right now,” according to Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News. After watching the 19-year-old’s busy night against the Kings, Kennedy writes: “The kid is mixing things up. He’s the perfect example of the guy you want on your team but hate when he’s on the other side. And he’s just getting started.” (The Hockey News)

Brock Boeser has a bright future with the Vancouver Canucks, but his journey to the NHL hasn’t been all roses. In 2010, Boeser’s dad was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, and in 2014, one of his good friends was killed in a car accident. “When you have experiences like that,” said his mom, “you can’t help but grow as you deal with them.” (National Post)

— TSN’s Gary Lawless wants the NHL to crack down on slashing. And we bet Johnny Gaudreau agrees. Johnny Hockey got chopped on the hand again last night. This time, the referee called a penalty. But too often slashing goes unpunished, just like hooking and holding used to. (TSN)

— A Q&A with Alex Radulov, who really wants to sign a contract extension with the Montreal Canadiens. “I would love to stay here. I like it here. I love the fans. I love this [training] facility. I come here even at night time; it’s all open doors. I can come and do whatever I need to. I really enjoy it, it’s really nice. You got everything here just to make yourself better.” All that said, contract talks are on hold for now. (Sportsnet)

Braden Holtby, fashion icon? Apparently, one of the best goalies in the NHL is also quite the clotheshorse. “I’ve always had an appreciation for things that are well-made, be it art or houses or carpentry, woodworking, clothes, I find the details very impressive for people putting their work into their craft. They see visions and they see those things come out, and you can see when someone cares about what they’re making. I think fashion’s a bit along the lines of that.” (Washington Post)

Enjoy the games!

Jets’ Enstrom undergoes second knee surgery in 12 months

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There’s not much left for Winnipeg to play for — just five regular-season games left, and no playoffs on the horizon — so today’s news that Tobias Enstrom has undergone season-ending knee surgery isn’t a crippling development.

Can’t be good, though.

Enstrom’s had a difficult year health-wise and, at the time of surgery, was dealing with a concussion suffered on a Tom Sestito hit back in early March. Prior to that, he missed time while attending to a family matter in his native Sweden and, prior to that, was shut down late last season to undergo knee surgery.

It’s unclear if today’s procedure was related to the one Enstrom had last March.

It is worth noting that, at the time of last year’s surgery, head coach Paul Maurice noted the 32-year-old had been dealing with the injury for months.

“He’s been able to get through it because of blocks of days off. If he can get a two day block, he’d get a little better and it’s just getting worse,” Maurice said, per Global News. “It got to the point that he’s not recovering and he hasn’t been. He hasn’t been for almost a month now. He’s not recovering enough on his days off for the pain ever to subside.”

All told, Enstrom appeared in 60 games this year, scoring 14 points while averaging just under 22 minutes per night. Next season will be the last of a five-year, $28.75 million deal that carries a $5.75 million cap hit.

Lundqvist will start four of five remaining games

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Henrik Lundqvist has had two tough starts since returning from injury.

The 35-year-old allowed five goals in his first game back, a 6-3 loss to Anaheim Sunday, and five more in his second game, a 5-4 OT loss to San Jose Tuesday.

But Lundqvist is still the No. 1 in New York, and for that reason he’s scheduled to start four of the Rangers’ five remaining regular-season games, with the hope he’ll be able to play his way back into form in time for the postseason.

Lundqvist was not happy after Tuesday’s loss to the Sharks, even though the point the Rangers gained earned them a playoff berth.

“I’m extremely disappointed right now,” he told reporters. “I’m glad we’re in, but I want to get the job done. I want the win. We found a way to lose this one at the end.”

With the loss, Lundqvist’s save percentage fell to .911 on the season. If it finishes at that number, it would be the lowest save percentage of his NHL career.

Antti Raanta‘s save percentage, meanwhile, sits at .922. In his last start, he shut out the Kings in Los Angeles.

The Rangers host Pittsburgh tomorrow and Philadelphia Sunday. Next week, they’re in Washington Wednesday, Ottawa Saturday, and then they close out their schedule at home to Pittsburgh Sunday.

Raanta will start one of the final two games.

The Rangers are likely to face Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens in the first round of the playoffs.