PHT predicts the 2010-2011 regular season

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It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for since the Blackhawks lifted the Stanley Cup in June. It’s the start of the regular season. Every day there will be hockey that counts. Every day there will be amazing goals, unbelievable saves, incredible passes, thrilling fights, and completely boneheaded mistakes.And we will enjoy every second of it because we’re sick like that.

It’s not an 82 game race to the end, it’s a marathon. There will be no Olympics to interrupt things this season and the pressure to win is always present. The Blackhawks start the season with the bull’s-eye on their back and they get to carry that burden through the entire regular season through to the playoffs. It’s a position the franchise hasn’t seen since 1961-1962 and many of their new fans are hoping the team handles things a bit better than the franchise did for nearly 50 years.

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So you our loyal PHT readers have been wondering what James and I think of how the season will turn out before all mayhem breaks out at noon today with the Hurricanes and Wild kicking the season off from Finland. If you come with us after the jump, you’ll see just how we think things play out this year as we pick our playoff teams and eventual Stanley Cup champions. You can take these predictions to the bank, just so long as that bank is filled with Monopoly money and candy.

ECStandings.jpgJoe says:  The Caps will have a harder go of it in the Southeast, but they’re still awfully good and they’ll still get their points. The divisional races in the other two divisions are much more interesting between Buffalo and Boston and New Jersey and Pittsburgh. The jumble for the 2-5 spots in the playoffs will be fascinating. After that, however, coin toss city. Philly is still awfully good even in spite of their future goaltending headache.

I like Montreal and Tampa Bay to round things out. It’s a shame we can’t get them to play each other in the first round to tie their connections together from the off-season to the postseason. Truth is, the 7-11 spots will be as tight as the 2-5 spots will be. Anyone in there can make the playoffs. Toronto and Carolina mark the line between being close to the playoffs and being God-awful.

James says: Yes, the Southeast Division is much improved, but the Capitals are a still leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. That dominance will help them earn the top seed again. The Devils were already built for the regular season, but adding Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Arnott really cements that fact. Losing Marc Savard really hurts my confidence in Boston, but I still think they’re better than Buffalo. Pittsburgh always seems to slide into that 4-5 seed range, so why not? Philadelphia is deep and talented, but might struggle a bit next season. I like Tampa Bay, especially in the weak Southeast (and Eastern Conference, really).

The eighth spot was the biggest coin toss of them all, though. Ultimately, I like Eric Staal more than Michael Cammalleri and Cam Ward more than Carey Price. I have little-to-no confidence in that pick in particular, as the Senators and Rangers could just as easily take that spot.

As for the Western Conference…

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Joe says: Vancouver will look like a juggernaut during the regular season. Kids will write songs about them, the elders will create myths and the hardcore fans will close the tinfoil haberdashery for the regular season. They’ll roll over the Northwest to win the division. Meanwhile, San Jose and Detroit both face heavy challenges from within and hang on to take the other two top spots in the conference. Los Angeles and Phoenix will fight it out over fifth, meanwhile Chicago plays it cool to sit in fourth.

Nashville and St. Louis will scare their fans into thinking they may not make it to the playoffs but ultimately will, meanwhile Calgary, Colorado, and Dallas push hard but fall short. Below them, things turn ugly. Minnesota will struggle, meanwhile Edmonton will finish low but will bring joy to their fans in the form of hope. Anaheim loses an uphill battle having to deal with everyone else in their division. Columbus will struggle mightily dealing with a new system.

James says: The Canucks will feast on a weak Northwest Division and will thrive without having a crazy Olympic Break to mess up their rhythm. The Blackhawks and Red Wings will battle until the bitter end, but Chicago’s youth will trump Detroit’s experience. The Sharks will win the Pacific by outlasting the top-heavy Kings. While they lack elegance, the Predators and Coyotes will yield results from their Chinese Water Torture-style defensive techniques to make it into the playoffs.

Much like the eighth seed in the East, I had trouble picking a No. 8 in the West. Every team has its problems: the Blues will struggle to score, the Flames are weak down the middle, the Ducks cannot play defense and so on. Still, the Blues have a nice young core and should play solid defense in front of their newly acquired goalie Jaroslav Halak. I wouldn’t bet my meager life savings on them, but I feel best about making this choice.

We’ll tell you who we’ve got for the playoffs and the Stanley Cup finals in our next post.

Why the Clutterbuck signing is a bad gamble for the Islanders

UNIONDALE, NY - APRIL 25: Jaroslav Halak #41 and Cal Clutterbuck #15 of the New York Islanders celebrate a 3-1 victory over the Washington Capitals in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on April 25, 2015 in Uniondale, New York. The Islanders defeated the Capitals 3-1.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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The New York Islanders made a pretty significant move on Friday when they committed a long-term contract to energy guy Cal Clutterbuck, signing him to a five-year, $17.5 million contract extension.

As far as depth players go, it was an eye-opening contract because it is a big investment in a player that is going to be 30 years old when the contract begins, has topped 30 points in a season only one time (seven years ago), and is similar to the long-term contract the team signed Casey Cizikas — a very similar player — to just a few months earlier.

When the two contracts are added up, that means the Islanders are going to be committing nearly $7 million in cap space through the 2020-21 season to players that — at best — project to be third-liners, and most likely, fourth liners.

That is a big chunk of change going to the bottom of your lineup.

Not every contract is going to be perfectly fair for team and player. Sometimes teams are going to overpay. Sometimes a player is going to outperform his deal. It is a reality of professional sports.

But where this becomes a big gamble for the Islanders is they, like all NHL teams, have a set amount of money they can spend to construct their roster under the league salary cap. Every dollar spent comes with an opportunity cost, because that is a dollar that can’t go to somebody else. In this case, the Islanders seem to be prioritizing their bottom-six over the top of their lineup. This is after all a team that already lost Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen over the summer, both of whom will cost less over the next five years than the Clutterbuck-Cizikas duo. By keeping the latter, you’re essentially choosing quantity over quality.

There is also the fact that the Islanders are one year away from having to deal with the potential unrestricted free agency of John Tavares.

His next contract is not going to be the $5.5 million steal (at least compared to other top players in the NHL) that it is now. When Tavares is eligible for free agency, the Islanders are already going to have more than $32 million committed to only eight players. And again, a significant chunk of that money ($7 million) will be going to two players that are skating in their bottom-six. That could be a problem.

But that’s not even the biggest part of the gamble for the Islanders when it comes to the Clutterbuck deal.

The biggest gamble is the fact that players like him do not tend to age well into their mid-30s (and Clutterbuck will be signed through his age 34 season).

Using the Hockey-Reference database I went back over the past 20 years to find players that resembled Clutterbuck’s career to see how they did after turning 30.

What I was looking for:

  • Players that played in at least 500 games between the ages of 20-29 (Clutterbuck has played 595)
  • Players that averaged less than 0.35 points per game during that stretch (Clutterbuck has averaged 0.31)
  • How many games, and seasons, they played after turning 30 and what their production looked like

This is some of what I found.

  • There were 27 previous players during that time period whose careers compared to Clutterbuck
  • Only 10 of them played in more than 200 games (the equivalent of 2.5 seasons) after their 30th birthday
  • Only six of them played a single game in the NHL after their 33rd birthday
  • 11 of them were out of the NHL entirely before they turned 32
  • There are still five players, other than Clutterbuck, that are still active in the league: Chris Neil at age 37, Jay McClemment at 33, Brad Richardson at 31, Daniel Winnik at 31, and Jared Boll at 30. How far their their careers go remains to be seen.

The defense for signing a player like Clutterbuck to a long-term deal like this is that they bring more to the team than just scoring. And that is fair. Not everybody is going to be a goal scorer or produce points. He seems like a great teammate. People like him. That is all fine.

But forget production here, we are talking about a type of player that generally does not stick long in the NHL after they hit 30. Plus, when it comes to Clutterbuck, this is player that has spent nearly a decade in the NHL playing a grueling style of hockey that is almost certain to wear a player down physically.

Every player in the league, no matter how good they are, starts to slide and lose a step once they get on the other side of 30 because father time is still, and will continue to be, undefeated. The players at the top of the league are still able to remain productive because they had so much skill and so much production at their peak. Even if they start to lose a step, or lose some of their production, they are still able to contribute something. But the guys at the bottom of your lineup that have spent years grinding their way through the league do not really have that step to lose. If they lose a step, they lose everything. If they lose even a little bit of their production, there is not much left.

The reality of a salary cap league is you can not keep everybody you want.

Every team has had to experience this at some point over the past decade. Teams like the Blackhawks and Penguins have decided to keep the players at the top of their lineup no matter the cost and sacrifice around the edges.

The Islanders, by letting players like Okposo and Nielsen leave, and committing to their bottom-six, seem to be trying to build from the bottom up.

It is a gamble. Let’s see how it works.

Lindholm’s first goal of 2016-17 was a big one for Ducks

ANAHEIM, CA - DECEMBER 04:  Hampus Lindholm #47 of the Anaheim Ducks avoids Micheal Haley #38 of the San Jose Sharks at Honda Center on December 4, 2015 in Anaheim, California.  (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
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ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) If the goals aren’t going to come in bunches, best make them timely.

At least, that’s what worked for Hampus Lindholm on Friday night.

Lindholm got his first goal of the season with 5:38 remaining, helping the Anaheim Ducks beat the San Jose Sharks 3-2 after blowing a two-goal lead.

Nick Ritchie found Lindholm alone on the opposite circle and fired a sharp pass that Lindholm slapped in over goalie Martin Jones‘ left shoulder.

“I came in on the left side and they just kind of lost him,” Ritchie said. “He was wide open and slapped it in there.”

Goals by Brent Burns and Kevin Labanc brought San Jose back after Rickard Rakell and Antoine Vermette scored in the first period for Anaheim.

Anaheim is 5-1-1 in its past seven games, including two wins over San Jose.

The 22-year-old Lindholm held out this season before signing a six-year contract extension in late October. He didn’t play his first game until Nov. 9 and got his first goal in 15 contests.

“I don’t think it was pretty tonight, but we got the win,” Lindholm said.

It was the third time the teams had met this season, and all three games have been decided by one goal.

“We battled back and I thought the game could have gone either way,” Sharks coach Peter DeBoer said. “We’re just finding our way to lose right now instead of win.”

It was a big game for Anaheim goalie Jonathan Bernier. In his last start, he gave up eight goals to Calgary, but Friday, he had 22 saves and withstood a frantic final attack after San Jose pulled its goalie with 2 minutes left.

“He played well the last time we were in San Jose and got us the win,” coach Randy Carlyle said. “Berny was looking for some kind of opportunity after the game in Calgary and I felt we owed him that.”

Jones stopped 29 shots for the Sharks.

San Jose tied it early in the second period when Labanc slipped a shot under Bernier’s left leg. It was the 20-year-old’s third goal of the season.

“We had some good looks,” Sharks center Joe Pavelski said. “We have to start putting them in the net.”

The Ducks nearly completed a dominant first period with a 2-0 lead, but Burns got his 12th goal of the season with 6 seconds left by slapping a shot past Bernier.

Anaheim opened the scoring 4:44 in after Shea Theodore fired a shot from just beyond the midpoint of the two circles. Jones deflected the shot, but Rakell snagged the rebound and wrapped it around and behind Jones.

Rakell, another late signing, has 11 goals in his 17 games since joining the Ducks.

“He’s a really good weapon,” Lindholm said. “He knows where to put (the puck). It’s fun to watch. He’s really a skilled guy.”

The Ducks went up 2-0 after Theodore came streaking down the right side and fired a perfect pass to Vermette, who snapped it past Jones for his fifth of the season.

NOTES: The Ducks are 60-59-11 against the rival Sharks. … Anaheim’s Joseph Cramarossa fought San Jose’s Tommy Wingels about five minutes into the first period.

UP NEXT

Sharks: Host Carolina on Saturday.

Ducks: Host Ottawa on Saturday.

Raanta rewards Rangers for starts over Lundqvist by blanking Blackhawks

VANCOUVER, BC - NOVEMBER 15: Goalie Henrik Lundqvist #30 of the New York Rangers shares a laugh with teammate Antti Raanta #32 after defeating the Vancouver Canucks 7-2 in NHL action on November 15, 2016 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.  (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)
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If someone told you that the New York Rangers started a goalie on back-to-back nights, and that goalie wasn’t Henrik Lundqvist, you’d probably wonder if he was hurt or retired.

Nope. It just so happens that Antti Raanta is playing at an incredibly high level, Alain Vigneault noticed, and that decision paid dividends on Friday night. Raanta won both nights of a back-to-back, allowing a single goal (with the Rangers protecting him, being that he only needed to stop 43 of 44 shots during that span).

Raanta and the Rangers blanked the Chicago Blackhawks with a 1-0 overtime win, at least briefly climbing to first place in the massively competitive Metro Division:

1. Rangers – 39 points in 29 games played
2. Penguins- 37 points in 27 GP
3. Blue Jackets – 36 points in 25 GP
4. Capitals – 35 points in 26 GP
5. Flyers – 35 points in 29 GP

Nick Holden ended up scoring the only goal of the game:

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks lost but at least salvaged a standings point and it seems like Patrick Kane is OK after this injury scare:

Raanta improved to 7-1-0 on the season, allowing two goals or less in all but one of his appearances so far this season. That’s the kind of work you’d expect to see if you’re going sit a guy who’s, you know, a living legend.

Blue Jackets remain in thick of things in Metro on tough night for Red Wings

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 01:  Boone Jenner #38 of the Columbus Blue Jackets is congratulated by his teammates after scoring the go ahead goal against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center on December 1, 2016 in Denver, Colorado.  (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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As the Columbus Blue Jackets keep rolling, the Detroit Red Wings are probably just happy to get Friday behind them.

For the second straight game, the Blue Jackets beat their opponent 4-1.

They’re now on a five-game winning streak, and like the climbing St. Louis Blues, things look great if you go back a little further. They’re 10-1-2 in their last 13 games and 13-2-3 since November began.

Columbus is now at 16-5-4, giving them 36 standings points. They’re once again in breathing distance of leading the Metro Division when you consider games in hand.

Update: Here’s how the standings look after the Rangers beat the Blackhawks 1-0 in overtime:

1. Rangers – 39 points in 29 games played
2. Penguins- 37 points in 27 GP
3. Blue Jackets – 36 points in 25 GP
4. Capitals – 35 points in 26 GP
5. Flyers – 35 points in 29 GP

That’s a stout division, and the Blue Jackets remain shockingly effective. Then again, with results like these over and over again, it might be time to merely expect such impressive work.

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For Detroit, it was a rough night. Jonathan Ericsson couldn’t play, Mike Green was a little banged up and Petr Mrazek was pulled for Jimmy Howard. This goal summarized some of their struggles: