Contract years will affect last year's top scorers

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for Sedin.jpgWe all have different philosophies about what drives success and results in sports. One thing that always dominates my predictions is contract years. Going by the Gordon Gekko principle of “Greed is good,” I often assume that a great player will be even better with that financial carrot dangling. It’s not always true (just look at Marc Savard’s troublesome 2009-10 season or, conversely, Henrik Sedin’s great post-contract year), but it’s a good rule of thumb.

Puck Daddy put out a very interesting post today that took a look at which of last season’s top 20 scoring players are “trending” up or down compared to last season. It’s a great read, but I couldn’t help but throw my own two cents (based on my own assumptions, philosophies and prejudices) for who might improve or decline.

Henrik Sedin

PD’s take: trending up; My take: trending down.

Reasoning: Look, I’ll always have a soft spot for the Sedin twins. After all, I named my old blog after them. That being said, Henrik Sedin had more assists last season than his previous career high in points. He saw a 30-point increase from the 08-09 season to 09-10. What do those numbers tell me? That he had a “perfect storm” season last year and it might be a little bold to expect more from next season. My guess is he “regresses” to 100 points in 10-11.

Steven Stamkos

PD’s take: trending down; My take: trending up.

Reasoning: This is the first of the contract year guys who could make a big impact in 10-11. Greg Wyshynski thinks that Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis will improve next year and the Lightning added some nice players including Simon Gagne this summer; in other words, the supporting cast around Stamkos will be quite a bit better this season. All of these factors make me think he’ll either match his 95-point total or improve upon it, as long as he’s healthy.

brichardstrendingup.jpgBrad Richards

PD’s take: trending down; My take: trending up.

Reasoning: Once again, this is a contract year (and supporting cast) based observation. For the latter, the Dallas Stars couldn’t get much worse than they were last season. Let’s not forget how well Richards did in his last contract year, either; the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup with a big assist from a Conn Smythe-worthy performance from Richards. Just saying.

Alex Semin

PD’s take: trending down; My take: trending up.

Reasoning: Sure, last season was a contract year for Semin too but this season is enormously important for Semin’s future. Will he be a member of the Washington Capitals after this season? Trade bait for a defenseman during the trade deadline? Either way, I’m not too worried about his linemates; he played quite a bit with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom last season and will certainly get time with them on the powerplay if nothing else. The fact of the matter is that Semin puts up plenty of points per game but cannot seem to stay healthy. What if he actually put together an 82-game season?

OK, that might be asking for too much, but the explosive Russian winger could top 40 goals and 84 points, though.

***

Anyway, that’s just my take on who might see better or worse seasons. Obviously, I fixate on contract years, but I think there’s some fire to go with that salary-focused smoke. I agree with a lot of Wyshynski’s assessments (especially Marian Gaborik trending down and Evgeni Malkin trending up), but I thought I’d share my thoughts on the subject for the sake of discussion. Click here to read his picks.

Scroll Down For:

    Jets basically have two top lines, and that’s scary

    Getty
    Leave a comment

    At times, this season feels like The Year of the Mega-Lines.

    Even so, the modern NHL is cruel to offense, and many of us are waiting for the other shoe to drop, as much as we want the fun to continue. What if Steven StamkosNikita Kucherov is driven down by injuries? Can Brayden Schenn remain a point-per-game player with Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz into the spring?

    A lot has been going right for the Winnipeg Jets lately, as they improved to 14-5-3 after beating the Anaheim Ducks 4-1 on Friday. It was their sixth win in seven games; they’ve gone 11-2-3 since beginning 2017-18 with a sputtering 3-3-0 mark.

    Still, there are some of those red flags that make you wonder if the party might stop soon. They ranked second in the NHL in even-strength PDO (via Natural Stat Trick) coming into today’s action, one of the go-to signs that a Cinderella story may end. Their possession numbers have left much to be desired. Connor Hellebuyck might be playing over his head.

    All or at least most of those considerations are worth some concern.

    Even so, Friday managed to shine a spotlight on a scary notion: the Jets might possess the equivalent of two “top lines,” or at least an electric top duo and a young, rising one that isn’t far behind.

    Around the start of the season, the Jets raised some eyebrows – mine, anyway – by handing Nikolaj Ehlers a seven-year extension that carries a $6 million cap hit. It’s not like the 21-year-old lacked signs of brilliance; instead, it was just a little startling to see them be so proactive with a big contract and term rather than seeing if his 25-goal, 64-point breakthrough from 2016-17 was “for real.”

    It’s incredibly early, but Ehlers is making it look like a wise decision, if not an outright steal. There are even moments when you might catch yourself wondering, “Is he just about as good as Patrik Laine?”

    Perhaps the Ducks thought that way today, as Ehlers dropped two goals and an assist on them.

    Snickers turn to nods of begrudging approval when you hear talk about “shot quality” with a team that might just have an excess of high-end shooters. After all, you can only cheat to cut off shooters so much if it means giving Ehlers too much time and space:

    Laine played somewhere between coy and possum when discussing how hockey was “hard” for him during a relative scoring slump, as he’s climbing to right where the Jets would want him to be. Since November began, the 19-year-old has only failed to score a point in a single game and averages a point-per-night. (Overall, he has 17 points in 22 contests.)

    This outburst gives Ehlers 10 goals and 17 points, and perhaps the Jets’ risky investment in Bryan Little may look better if he can merely set the table for these two. Perhaps it’s fair to say that the Ehlers – Laine benefit from the occasional wake-up call, though.

    And, again, the scary part is that Ehlers – Laine isn’t even the first pairing you’d underline on the whiteboard.

    Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler both sit at 25 points even after being blanked on Friday, and it seems like they might have found their third amigo in Kyle Connor, another young forward coming up the ranks in Winnipeg.

    It has to be disheartening for opponents to consider that they might shut down Scheifele – Wheeler and still get blitzed out of the building by Laine and Ehlers, yet that’s the predicament you face, particularly since the Jets boast the sort of defensemen who might force you to “stay honest” in the likes of Dustin Byfuglien and Jacob Trouba.

    Does this all mean that Winnipeg can just pencil in its first playoff games, nay, series wins already? No, they have questions, all the way up to if Paul Maurice can make it all work.

    That said, days like these make you wonder if the talent will do all the work for him.

    James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

    Bruins, Khudobin top Penguins for fourth straight win

    3 Comments

    Don’t look now but here come the Boston Bruins.

    Thanks to their 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday afternoon the Bruins were able to continue their climb up the Eastern Conference standings with their fourth consecutive win, all of them coming with backup goaltender Anton Khubodin in net.

    Friday’s win ended up being a little more difficult than it looked after 20 minutes.

    The Bruins stormed out of the gates and dominated the first period, scoring a pair of goals and limiting the Penguins to just four shots on goal. They held a 3-1 lead in the second period until the Penguins were able to strike back with a pair of goals, including a really flukey game-tying goal from Sidney Crosby that needed to go through two different replay reviews, to tie the game.

    But early in the third period David Pastrnak was able to sneak behind the Penguins’ defense on a breakaway and score what would prove to be the game-winning goal.

    With that win the Bruins are for the time being in the third playoff spot in the Atlantic Division.

    The Penguins, meanwhile, continue to look like a lost hockey team. Their loss on Friday was their ninth in their past 13 games and they have still just won just 11 of their first 24 games this season.

    Friday’s game was also the Penguins’ third consecutive loss.

    Defense continues to be an issue, as does depth scoring and 5-on-5 offense.

    Things will not get any easier for the Penguins on Saturday when they have to return home for a game against the NHL’s best team, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    It will be the third time the Penguins have played the Lightning this season in the second half of a back-to-back situation. They lost the first two games by a combined score of 12-5.

    WATCH LIVE: Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins

    Getty
    Leave a comment

    If you are looking for a break from your Black Friday shopping or your relatives in town for the holidays we have something that should work nicely: Some afternoon hockey as the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Boston Bruins.

    The Bruins enter the game having won three in a row, all with backup goalie Anton Khudobin in net. He has allowed just four goals in those three games.

    The Penguins, meanwhile, are still trying to find their stride this season and have won just four of their past 12 games. They are still trying to figure out ways to replace some of the depth they lost this summer.

    Opening faceoff is at 1 p.m. ET.

    You can catch all of the action on NBC or on our NBC Live Stream.

    Click Here For The Live Stream

    Preview: NHL On NBC: Bruins’ Khudobin looks for fourth straight win in matinee matchup against Pens.

    New York Rangers reveal 2018 Winter Classic jerseys (Photos)

    New York Rangers
    3 Comments

    The Buffalo Sabres already revealed their look for the 2018 Winter Classic earlier this week, and on Friday the New York Rangers gave us our first look at what their uniforms will look like for the Jan. 1 game to be played at Citi Field in New York.

    [Buffalo Sabres reveal 2018 Winter Classic jersey (Photos)]

    Have a look, both in the picture at the top showing the front of the uniforms, as well as the picture just below showing the back.

    Thoughts on the Rangers’ look?

    The 2018 Winter Classic is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET faceoff at Citi Field in New York, the home of the New York Mets.

    This year’s game will be the 10th anniversary of the annual New Years Day game.

    Related: Buffalo Sabres reveal Winter Classic Jerseys