Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheets: Shots on Goal leaders

While Pro Hockey Talk doesn’t specialize in fantasy hockey (our Rotoworld cousins do, though), we still think that there are areas where we can help you, the budding imaginary general managers. For that reason, we’re going to discuss different philosophies, strategies and cheat sheets as fantasy drafts begin to increase around North America.

Previous entries: Penalty Minutes, Faceoff winners.

Today’s entry: Shots on Goal.

alexosoghero.jpgWhile many people roll their eyes at the debate, I still think that Sidney Crosby vs. Alexander Ovechkin will ultimately be the “Magic vs. Bird” debate for this NHL generation. I agree that other great players such as Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin and so so on deserve a bigger piece of the spotlight, but Crosby and Ovechkin are still on the top of the mountain.

That much remains true in fantasy hockey, too, especially if you don’t choose frivolous stat categories (more on that soon). With Crosby developing into a more trigger happy player, his mixture of normal stats plus FW and SOG get him back in the No. 1 pick argument in my mind.*

* – That being said, as long as Ovechkin doesn’t suffer an off-season injury, I would take him in most leagues (especially if they are wise enough to have winger/position categories … leaving all forwards labeled ‘F’ is no fun). The logic is simple: great left wingers are a lot harder to come by than great centers. That’s another discussion for another day, though.

All that out of the way, Ovechkin’s SOG make him the No. 1 option in leagues that include that stat. His 2009-10 numbers might look tame to you compared to his previous seasons, but keep in mind he won the imaginary shooting frequency title by 20 shots even after missing 10 games in 09-10. That’s still 5.1 shots per game, which would equal 419 overall. Here are the top 10 SOG leaders from the last three seasons, with Ovechkin the clear king of that category. (Stats via NHL.com.)

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In case you want a nice snapshot of which guys are consistent SOG-heavy players, here are the players who made a top 10 list at least twice in the last three years. (This includes their rank for 09-10, 08-09, 07-08; NR means “not ranked” although they might have been as high as #11.)

Alex Ovechkin: 1, 1, 1
Zach Parise: 2, 3, NR
Jeff Carter: 3, 4, NR
Henrik Zetterberg: 4, 5, 2
Vincent Lecavalier: 8, 9, 7
Ilya Kovalchuk: 9, NR, 10
Eric Staal: NR, 2, 8
Jason Blake: NR, 7, 5

pariseandcarter.jpgExpect big SOG numbers from Parise and Carter since they’re going to be free agents after this season. Greed is good when SOG are concerned. I’ve always been a big fan of Zetterberg in fantasy hockey because he earns a ton of FW and often gains C/LW eligibility**. If he wasn’t so injury prone, so handsome and so devoted to playing for the Red Wings he’d be my hero.

** – This means you can play them at center OR left wing. Not every fantasy league allows you to do this, but players who can earn this opportunity warm my dorky heart.

My guess is Eric Staal would have contended for the top 10 if he wasn’t fighting injury problems last season. One might think that Lecavalier is primed for a minor bounce-back year merely based on the fact that he shot at a mediocre 8.1 rate last season. Jason Blake is notable for being one of those guys who only justifies his fantasy existence with SOG, but he has to be healthy to do so.

I’ll leave you with these last two thoughts: if you have the No. 1 pick in a league with SOG, just draft Ovechkin. Number two: if you are a commissioner for a fantasy hockey league, don’t make shooting percentage (or S%) a stat category. It is really dumb.

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    Jaromir Jagr’s open to many things, but not retirement or a tryout

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    Yes, Jaromir Jagr is 45-years-old. He’ll turn 46 in February.

    So, yes, even for a fitness freak like Jagr, it’s likely that he’d probably not be the best fit for a team that plays at a frenetic pace. To get the most out of the living legend, a team would have to provide a nurturing environment. There are also questions about what sort of role he’d accept and how much money he’d settle for.

    Even with all of those disclaimers under consideration, it’s maddening that we’re in late September and Jagr continues to put out semi-sarcastic cry for help videos.

    So, what’s the latest on Jagr, then?

    Well, to some extent, it’s useful to consider the process of elimination.

    Sports-Express’ Igor Eronko reports that Jagr is open-minded about the KHL, though the NHL is first choice. Jagr acknowledged that participating in the 2018 Winter Olympics would be a draw in the process.

    One thing he isn’t open to: a PTO with an NHL team.

    While there’s actually some logic to a tryout – teams might want to see how well he can move/what kind of immediate chemistry Jagr could find – it does seem a little … demeaning to a first-ballot Hall of Famer who, frankly, is still producing solid numbers.

    Eronko reports that Jagr said he’s talking to three-to-four teams, while Pierre LeBrun reports that two-to-three NHL teams are speaking with Jagr’s reps in the latest edition of TSN’s Insider Trading.

    (Hey, both could be correct if Jagr’s including KHL suitors in his estimate.)

    LeBrun also notes the idea Jagr is ruling out, beyond a PTO: retirement.

    Jagr doesn’t want to hang up his skates, even if it means not playing in the NHL, which would bum out a slew of hockey fans (raises hand).

    Naturally, there are creative “have your cake and eat it too” scenarios. Perhaps Jagr could sign a KHL contract with an NHL out clause of some kind, playing in the 2018 Winter Olympics, and then ink a deal with a contender who a) he wants to play for and b) is now convinced he still “has it?”

    There are plenty of possibilities, and many of them are fun to think about.

    Jagr needing to try out for a team – or worse, retire – is not so fun to think about.

    Flyers experiment with Claude Giroux at LW, Sean Couturier as his center

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    Last season, Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier were on the ice at the same time during even-strength situations for just a bit more than five minutes. Depending upon how a Philadelphia Flyers’ pre-season experiment goes, they could line up together a whole lot more often.

    Of course, if you missed this post’s headline, you might be asking: “But how? They’re both centers.”

    Well, under this experiment, Giroux would move to left wing, Couturier would play center, and Jakub Voracek would assume his familiar role at RW.

    Giroux came into the NHL primarily as a right-winger before moving to center, so he’s clearly versatile enough to theoretically work out on a wing. It also might allow the Flyers to try to duplicate some of their mad science from the power play to even-strength, as that’s often the role he finds himself in on that locomotive of a man-advantage unit.

    As Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post reports, Giroux doesn’t seem against it, really.

    “It was actually a lot of fun,” Giroux said. “It’s not like I’m against it or I’m not happy with it. If it makes the team better, we have a lot of centermen and I’m up for it for sure.”

    Giroux is right. The Flyers have a glut of pivots, especially if head coach Dave Hakstol views additions Nolan Patrick and Jori Lehtera (or fairly recent addition Valtteri Filppula) as better fits down the middle.

    NHL.com’s Bill Meltzer reports that Hakstol is impressed by Giroux’s willingness to move around as need be.

    “When your captain is as selfless as ‘G’ is, he [goes] all in,” Hakstol said. “Whatever the role is, he’s going to attack it… It’s early, but he’s had a very high-level camp.”

    Giroux’s been, at times, a bit more dependent on the PP to get his numbers. In 2016-17, five of his 14 goals and 26 of his assists (31 of 58 points) came on the power play.

    Perhaps Couturier could do the “dirty work” associated with a center while two gifted wingers exploit their chemistry and get to have the fun? It’s the sort of hypothesis that can make sense in a hockey laboratory, and it would be entertaining to see if it works out in reality.

    Assuming such a scientific method even makes it to October.

    Brad Marchand: NHL crackdown on face-off cheating is ‘absolute joke’

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    Earlier today, PHT’s own Cam Tucker discussed the early returns on the NHL’s plan to increase penalties for slashing and to cut down on cheating during face-offs.

    (The video above this post’s headline provides a helpful primer on how officials plan on policing draws.)

    So far, the face-off tweaks have one especially vocal critic in Boston Bruins agitator-star Brad Marchand, as CSNNE.com’s Joe Haggerty reports.

    “The slashing [penalties] is one thing, but this face-off rule is an absolute joke. That’s how you ruin the game of hockey by putting that in there. They’re going to have to do something about that because we can’t play all year like that,” Marchand said. “Basically you have to be a statue. You can’t move. It takes away from the center iceman. I think there was even a play [in the game I was watching] last night where a penalty was called on a 4-on-4 before play on the first penalty had even started because of a draw.”

    Gotta love the line “Basically you have to be a statue.”

    Edmonton Oilers center Mark Letestu backed up Marchand in the “we can’t play all year like that” stance, asserting that he doubts a penalty like that would get whistled during a high-stakes game, as Sportsnet noted.

    Here’s another perspective, via Edmonton Oilers head coach Todd McLellan.

    Now, the new face-off rule might not have that huge of a direct impact on Marchand’s daily hockey life.

    In 2016-17, Marchand went 13-23 in the dot.

    It may, however, affect his fantastic center, Patrice Bergeron. The dynamic two-way center has been one of the best volume winners of draws over the years. Smarts, strength, studying tape and other factors go into winning as many as 60-percent of one’s face-offs, yet Bergeron and other top centers know how to “bend the rules,” too.

    As much as analytics-minded people grumble about excessive attention being paid to face-offs, they’re events that can set up rare opportunities for set plays and other advantageous moments.

    One can imagine that Marchand wouldn’t be pumped about the idea that, maybe, Bergeron’s dominance in the circle could be blunted, even ever-so-slightly or briefly.

    Naturally, potential self-interest doesn’t disqualify Marchand and others from being correct.

    At the same time, this is the pre-season, an opportunity for the NHL to work out its own kinks, which in this case means trying to manage rule tweaks while not disrupting the flow of games. Marchand is merely the loudest to say that … it sounds like the league might have some work to do.

    Despite cancer diagnosis, Devils’ Brian Boyle doesn’t want to miss games

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    New Jersey Devils forward Brian Boyle shared frightening news on Tuesday, yet he’s showing resounding courage and optimism in also plotting his “plan of attack.”

    Boye, 32, announced that he was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia on Tuesday.

    Chronic myeloid luekemia (or CML) is a type of bone marrow cancer. Here’s an explanation of the disease via the American Cancer Society:

    Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), also known as chronic myelogenous leukemia, is a type of cancer that starts in certain blood-forming cells of the bone marrow. In CML, a genetic change takes place in an early (immature) version of myeloid cells – the cells that make red blood cells, platelets, and most types of white blood cells (except lymphocytes). This change forms an abnormal gene called BCR-ABL, which turns the cell into a CML cell. The leukemia cells grow and divide, building up in the bone marrow and spilling over into the blood. In time, the cells can also settle in other parts of the body, including the spleen. CML is a fairly slow growing leukemia, but it can also change into a fast-growing acute leukemia that is hard to treat.

    Despite that scary news, Boyle is very positive about his chances; in fact, he hopes to live a “normal life,” right down to playing in the Devils’ season-opener on Oct. 7.

    Back in 2014, Boyle discussed his father’s battle with cancer to ESPN. It’s quite an inspiring read.

    We’ve seen multiple instances of hockey players showing resilience while fighting cancer during the active career. Mario Lemieux and Saku Koivu stand as some of the most memorable examples, while Phil Kessel also comes to mind.

    Jason Blake bounced back from CML, specifically:

    The number one thing isn’t playing hockey, of course. It’s most important that Boyle emphasizes his overall health, even if that means taking some time off.

    The Devils seem to be very supportive of Boyle as his fight begins. Here’s hoping he wins this one.