What if… The Sabres didn't match Edmonton's offer sheet for Thomas Vanek

2 Comments

thomasvanek2.jpgSuspend your disbelief and throw your Back To The Future ways of dealing with “What if?” stories right now for a bit. James’ post yesterday about some of the most infamous offer sheets the NHL has ever seen got me thinking about one of the more recent, and infamous, ones dealt out. Edmonton’s offer sheet for Buffalo Sabres forward Thomas Vanek got me thinking about how things would’ve changed drastically for both teams had the Sabres opted against retaining Vanek. Obviously this would’ve meant that Dustin Penner would’ve stayed an Anaheim Duck and Brian Burke wouldn’t have Kevin Lowe’s face on his dart board, but that’s beside the point right now.

During the summer of 2007, the Sabres lost both Daniel Briere and Chris Drury to free agency. Thomas Vanek was in his restricted free agency year after scoring 43 goals and netting 84 points. The Sabres wanted to take their time in negotiating with him but Edmonton general manager Kevin Lowe wanted to hear none of that and signed Vanek to a seven year, $50 million offer sheet. According to the NHL CBA (PDF download), compensation for a team allowing a player to be signed away from them via offer sheet at that amount of money would be four first-round picks. While the Sabres matched the offer sheet, what would their future have looked like letting Edmonton take him away? Sabres fans might want to look away.

2008 Draft

The Sabres drafted their own great prospect in Calder Trophy-winning defenseman Tyler Myers. Had things held tight, they could’ve had back-to-back picks in that draft. Edmonton picked 12th that year and the Sabres had the 13th selection. While the Sabres ended up picking 12th through a series of deals, part of those trades was Buffalo giving up their 13th overall pick to the Kings to move up to 12th. Clearly Myers was their guy that year, but had they let Vanek go to Edmonton, Buffalo would’ve had two picks in a row. Los Angeles selected defenseman Colten Teubert at 13 but any number of potential future stars including Zach Boychuk, Joe Colborne, Jordan Eberle, John Carlson or Michael Del Zotto could’ve been had. For what it’s worth, the Sabres also picked 26th in that first round as well, selecting Tyler Ennis. The 2008 draft had one of the deeper first rounds in recent history.

2009 Draft

The Sabres picked 13th in this draft and snagged forward Zack Kassian, a guy who has found things to be a bit difficult in trying to build himself into a NHL pro, especially off the ice. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers had the 10th overall selection and grabbed Swedish phenom Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson who is slated to join the Oilers this season after coming over from Europe. While it remains to be seen what, if anything, will come of either Kassian or Paajarvi-Svensson at this point with Kassian’s off-ice issues coming into play and Paajarvi-Svensson being hailed as part of the future in Edmonton, you have to feel a bit leery about how Buffalo’s fortune looks here.

2010 Draft

Here’s where Buffalo’s decision really comes to roost. Sure, the Sabres made a nice, safe pick with their own selection in defenseman Mark Pysyk, but the Oilers had the number one overall choice and used it on high-scoring wing/center Taylor Hall. The dynamic that could’ve occurred had the Taylor vs. Tyler debate been there for the Sabres is obvious as the Sabres need for a true number one center would’ve come a bit more into play making the debate between Hall and Seguin that much more interesting.

While the 2011 Draft awaits us next year, it doesn’t figure that Edmonton will be all that good as they still have gigantic questions in goal and icing a line with three rookies will have its ups and downs on the year. This debate arises after Vanek had a pretty quiet and comparably miserable year in 2009-2010. After all, having your lowest goal output since your rookie season will make fans worry, especially the very temperamental ones in Buffalo. Certainly Vanek can, and very well may, rebound to his 30+ goal form but fans will certainly be wondering if letting him go to Edmonton may have been the right call to help the team salary-wise and player-wise.

Why the Clutterbuck signing is a bad gamble for the Islanders

UNIONDALE, NY - APRIL 25: Jaroslav Halak #41 and Cal Clutterbuck #15 of the New York Islanders celebrate a 3-1 victory over the Washington Capitals in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2015 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum on April 25, 2015 in Uniondale, New York. The Islanders defeated the Capitals 3-1.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Getty
Leave a comment

The New York Islanders made a pretty significant move on Friday when they committed a long-term contract to energy guy Cal Clutterbuck, signing him to a five-year, $17.5 million contract extension.

As far as depth players go, it was an eye-opening contract because it is a big investment in a player that is going to be 30 years old when the contract begins, has topped 30 points in a season only one time (seven years ago), and is similar to the long-term contract the team signed Casey Cizikas — a very similar player — to just a few months earlier.

When the two contracts are added up, that means the Islanders are going to be committing nearly $7 million in cap space through the 2020-21 season to players that — at best — project to be third-liners, and most likely, fourth liners.

That is a big chunk of change going to the bottom of your lineup.

Not every contract is going to be perfectly fair for team and player. Sometimes teams are going to overpay. Sometimes a player is going to outperform his deal. It is a reality of professional sports.

But where this becomes a big gamble for the Islanders is they, like all NHL teams, have a set amount of money they can spend to construct their roster under the league salary cap. Every dollar spent comes with an opportunity cost, because that is a dollar that can’t go to somebody else. In this case, the Islanders seem to be prioritizing their bottom-six over the top of their lineup. This is after all a team that already lost Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen over the summer, both of whom will cost less over the next five years than the Clutterbuck-Cizikas duo. By keeping the latter, you’re essentially choosing quantity over quality.

There is also the fact that the Islanders are one year away from having to deal with the potential unrestricted free agency of John Tavares.

His next contract is not going to be the $5.5 million steal (at least compared to other top players in the NHL) that it is now. When Tavares is eligible for free agency, the Islanders are already going to have more than $32 million committed to only eight players. And again, a significant chunk of that money ($7 million) will be going to two players that are skating in their bottom-six. That could be a problem.

But that’s not even the biggest part of the gamble for the Islanders when it comes to the Clutterbuck deal.

The biggest gamble is the fact that players like him do not tend to age well into their mid-30s (and Clutterbuck will be signed through his age 34 season).

Using the Hockey-Reference database I went back over the past 20 years to find players that resembled Clutterbuck’s career to see how they did after turning 30.

What I was looking for:

  • Players that played in at least 500 games between the ages of 20-29 (Clutterbuck has played 595)
  • Players that averaged less than 0.35 points per game during that stretch (Clutterbuck has averaged 0.31)
  • How many games, and seasons, they played after turning 30 and what their production looked like

This is some of what I found.

  • There were 27 previous players during that time period whose careers compared to Clutterbuck
  • Only 10 of them played in more than 200 games (the equivalent of 2.5 seasons) after their 30th birthday
  • Only six of them played a single game in the NHL after their 33rd birthday
  • 11 of them were out of the NHL entirely before they turned 32
  • There are still five players, other than Clutterbuck, that are still active in the league: Chris Neil at age 37, Jay McClemment at 33, Brad Richardson at 31, Daniel Winnik at 31, and Jared Boll at 30. How far their their careers go remains to be seen.

The defense for signing a player like Clutterbuck to a long-term deal like this is that they bring more to the team than just scoring. And that is fair. Not everybody is going to be a goal scorer or produce points. He seems like a great teammate. People like him. That is all fine.

But forget production here, we are talking about a type of player that generally does not stick long in the NHL after they hit 30. Plus, when it comes to Clutterbuck, this is player that has spent nearly a decade in the NHL playing a grueling style of hockey that is almost certain to wear a player down physically.

Every player in the league, no matter how good they are, starts to slide and lose a step once they get on the other side of 30 because father time is still, and will continue to be, undefeated. The players at the top of the league are still able to remain productive because they had so much skill and so much production at their peak. Even if they start to lose a step, or lose some of their production, they are still able to contribute something. But the guys at the bottom of your lineup that have spent years grinding their way through the league do not really have that step to lose. If they lose a step, they lose everything. If they lose even a little bit of their production, there is not much left.

The reality of a salary cap league is you can not keep everybody you want.

Every team has had to experience this at some point over the past decade. Teams like the Blackhawks and Penguins have decided to keep the players at the top of their lineup no matter the cost and sacrifice around the edges.

The Islanders, by letting players like Okposo and Nielsen leave, and committing to their bottom-six, seem to be trying to build from the bottom up.

It is a gamble. Let’s see how it works.

Lindholm’s first goal of 2016-17 was a big one for Ducks

ANAHEIM, CA - DECEMBER 04:  Hampus Lindholm #47 of the Anaheim Ducks avoids Micheal Haley #38 of the San Jose Sharks at Honda Center on December 4, 2015 in Anaheim, California.  (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Getty
1 Comment

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) If the goals aren’t going to come in bunches, best make them timely.

At least, that’s what worked for Hampus Lindholm on Friday night.

Lindholm got his first goal of the season with 5:38 remaining, helping the Anaheim Ducks beat the San Jose Sharks 3-2 after blowing a two-goal lead.

Nick Ritchie found Lindholm alone on the opposite circle and fired a sharp pass that Lindholm slapped in over goalie Martin Jones‘ left shoulder.

“I came in on the left side and they just kind of lost him,” Ritchie said. “He was wide open and slapped it in there.”

Goals by Brent Burns and Kevin Labanc brought San Jose back after Rickard Rakell and Antoine Vermette scored in the first period for Anaheim.

Anaheim is 5-1-1 in its past seven games, including two wins over San Jose.

The 22-year-old Lindholm held out this season before signing a six-year contract extension in late October. He didn’t play his first game until Nov. 9 and got his first goal in 15 contests.

“I don’t think it was pretty tonight, but we got the win,” Lindholm said.

It was the third time the teams had met this season, and all three games have been decided by one goal.

“We battled back and I thought the game could have gone either way,” Sharks coach Peter DeBoer said. “We’re just finding our way to lose right now instead of win.”

It was a big game for Anaheim goalie Jonathan Bernier. In his last start, he gave up eight goals to Calgary, but Friday, he had 22 saves and withstood a frantic final attack after San Jose pulled its goalie with 2 minutes left.

“He played well the last time we were in San Jose and got us the win,” coach Randy Carlyle said. “Berny was looking for some kind of opportunity after the game in Calgary and I felt we owed him that.”

Jones stopped 29 shots for the Sharks.

San Jose tied it early in the second period when Labanc slipped a shot under Bernier’s left leg. It was the 20-year-old’s third goal of the season.

“We had some good looks,” Sharks center Joe Pavelski said. “We have to start putting them in the net.”

The Ducks nearly completed a dominant first period with a 2-0 lead, but Burns got his 12th goal of the season with 6 seconds left by slapping a shot past Bernier.

Anaheim opened the scoring 4:44 in after Shea Theodore fired a shot from just beyond the midpoint of the two circles. Jones deflected the shot, but Rakell snagged the rebound and wrapped it around and behind Jones.

Rakell, another late signing, has 11 goals in his 17 games since joining the Ducks.

“He’s a really good weapon,” Lindholm said. “He knows where to put (the puck). It’s fun to watch. He’s really a skilled guy.”

The Ducks went up 2-0 after Theodore came streaking down the right side and fired a perfect pass to Vermette, who snapped it past Jones for his fifth of the season.

NOTES: The Ducks are 60-59-11 against the rival Sharks. … Anaheim’s Joseph Cramarossa fought San Jose’s Tommy Wingels about five minutes into the first period.

UP NEXT

Sharks: Host Carolina on Saturday.

Ducks: Host Ottawa on Saturday.

Raanta rewards Rangers for starts over Lundqvist by blanking Blackhawks

VANCOUVER, BC - NOVEMBER 15: Goalie Henrik Lundqvist #30 of the New York Rangers shares a laugh with teammate Antti Raanta #32 after defeating the Vancouver Canucks 7-2 in NHL action on November 15, 2016 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.  (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)
Getty
3 Comments

If someone told you that the New York Rangers started a goalie on back-to-back nights, and that goalie wasn’t Henrik Lundqvist, you’d probably wonder if he was hurt or retired.

Nope. It just so happens that Antti Raanta is playing at an incredibly high level, Alain Vigneault noticed, and that decision paid dividends on Friday night. Raanta won both nights of a back-to-back, allowing a single goal (with the Rangers protecting him, being that he only needed to stop 43 of 44 shots during that span).

Raanta and the Rangers blanked the Chicago Blackhawks with a 1-0 overtime win, at least briefly climbing to first place in the massively competitive Metro Division:

1. Rangers – 39 points in 29 games played
2. Penguins- 37 points in 27 GP
3. Blue Jackets – 36 points in 25 GP
4. Capitals – 35 points in 26 GP
5. Flyers – 35 points in 29 GP

Nick Holden ended up scoring the only goal of the game:

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks lost but at least salvaged a standings point and it seems like Patrick Kane is OK after this injury scare:

Raanta improved to 7-1-0 on the season, allowing two goals or less in all but one of his appearances so far this season. That’s the kind of work you’d expect to see if you’re going sit a guy who’s, you know, a living legend.

Blue Jackets remain in thick of things in Metro on tough night for Red Wings

DENVER, CO - DECEMBER 01:  Boone Jenner #38 of the Columbus Blue Jackets is congratulated by his teammates after scoring the go ahead goal against the Colorado Avalanche at the Pepsi Center on December 1, 2016 in Denver, Colorado.  (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Getty
5 Comments

As the Columbus Blue Jackets keep rolling, the Detroit Red Wings are probably just happy to get Friday behind them.

For the second straight game, the Blue Jackets beat their opponent 4-1.

They’re now on a five-game winning streak, and like the climbing St. Louis Blues, things look great if you go back a little further. They’re 10-1-2 in their last 13 games and 13-2-3 since November began.

Columbus is now at 16-5-4, giving them 36 standings points. They’re once again in breathing distance of leading the Metro Division when you consider games in hand.

Update: Here’s how the standings look after the Rangers beat the Blackhawks 1-0 in overtime:

1. Rangers – 39 points in 29 games played
2. Penguins- 37 points in 27 GP
3. Blue Jackets – 36 points in 25 GP
4. Capitals – 35 points in 26 GP
5. Flyers – 35 points in 29 GP

That’s a stout division, and the Blue Jackets remain shockingly effective. Then again, with results like these over and over again, it might be time to merely expect such impressive work.

***

For Detroit, it was a rough night. Jonathan Ericsson couldn’t play, Mike Green was a little banged up and Petr Mrazek was pulled for Jimmy Howard. This goal summarized some of their struggles: