What if… The Sabres didn't match Edmonton's offer sheet for Thomas Vanek

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thomasvanek2.jpgSuspend your disbelief and throw your Back To The Future ways of dealing with “What if?” stories right now for a bit. James’ post yesterday about some of the most infamous offer sheets the NHL has ever seen got me thinking about one of the more recent, and infamous, ones dealt out. Edmonton’s offer sheet for Buffalo Sabres forward Thomas Vanek got me thinking about how things would’ve changed drastically for both teams had the Sabres opted against retaining Vanek. Obviously this would’ve meant that Dustin Penner would’ve stayed an Anaheim Duck and Brian Burke wouldn’t have Kevin Lowe’s face on his dart board, but that’s beside the point right now.

During the summer of 2007, the Sabres lost both Daniel Briere and Chris Drury to free agency. Thomas Vanek was in his restricted free agency year after scoring 43 goals and netting 84 points. The Sabres wanted to take their time in negotiating with him but Edmonton general manager Kevin Lowe wanted to hear none of that and signed Vanek to a seven year, $50 million offer sheet. According to the NHL CBA (PDF download), compensation for a team allowing a player to be signed away from them via offer sheet at that amount of money would be four first-round picks. While the Sabres matched the offer sheet, what would their future have looked like letting Edmonton take him away? Sabres fans might want to look away.

2008 Draft

The Sabres drafted their own great prospect in Calder Trophy-winning defenseman Tyler Myers. Had things held tight, they could’ve had back-to-back picks in that draft. Edmonton picked 12th that year and the Sabres had the 13th selection. While the Sabres ended up picking 12th through a series of deals, part of those trades was Buffalo giving up their 13th overall pick to the Kings to move up to 12th. Clearly Myers was their guy that year, but had they let Vanek go to Edmonton, Buffalo would’ve had two picks in a row. Los Angeles selected defenseman Colten Teubert at 13 but any number of potential future stars including Zach Boychuk, Joe Colborne, Jordan Eberle, John Carlson or Michael Del Zotto could’ve been had. For what it’s worth, the Sabres also picked 26th in that first round as well, selecting Tyler Ennis. The 2008 draft had one of the deeper first rounds in recent history.

2009 Draft

The Sabres picked 13th in this draft and snagged forward Zack Kassian, a guy who has found things to be a bit difficult in trying to build himself into a NHL pro, especially off the ice. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers had the 10th overall selection and grabbed Swedish phenom Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson who is slated to join the Oilers this season after coming over from Europe. While it remains to be seen what, if anything, will come of either Kassian or Paajarvi-Svensson at this point with Kassian’s off-ice issues coming into play and Paajarvi-Svensson being hailed as part of the future in Edmonton, you have to feel a bit leery about how Buffalo’s fortune looks here.

2010 Draft

Here’s where Buffalo’s decision really comes to roost. Sure, the Sabres made a nice, safe pick with their own selection in defenseman Mark Pysyk, but the Oilers had the number one overall choice and used it on high-scoring wing/center Taylor Hall. The dynamic that could’ve occurred had the Taylor vs. Tyler debate been there for the Sabres is obvious as the Sabres need for a true number one center would’ve come a bit more into play making the debate between Hall and Seguin that much more interesting.

While the 2011 Draft awaits us next year, it doesn’t figure that Edmonton will be all that good as they still have gigantic questions in goal and icing a line with three rookies will have its ups and downs on the year. This debate arises after Vanek had a pretty quiet and comparably miserable year in 2009-2010. After all, having your lowest goal output since your rookie season will make fans worry, especially the very temperamental ones in Buffalo. Certainly Vanek can, and very well may, rebound to his 30+ goal form but fans will certainly be wondering if letting him go to Edmonton may have been the right call to help the team salary-wise and player-wise.

Fight video: Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Matthew Benning

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Vladimir Tarasenko earns the nickname “Tank” because he’s a big, hoss-like scorer and because it matches up well with his name.

He showed a different kind of firepower on Tuesday, though, as he took exception to a Matthew Benning hit and decided to fight the Edmonton Oilers defenseman. The bout happened even as the Oilers seemed like they were getting a precious scoring chance, but the crowd in St. Louis was riled up mainly to see the superstar drop the gloves.

In case you’re wondering, this isn’t the first battle for “The Tank.” According to Hockey Fights’ listings, Tarasenko fought once in 2015-16 and another time in 2014-15, while also dropping the gloves once in the KHL.

(This is his first fight against someone not named Ryan, as he exchanged fisticuffs with Ryan Kesler and Ryan Ellis in his other NHL fights. I mean, unless Matthew Benning’s middle name is Ryan?)

So far, the Oilers haven’t been showing as much fight as Tarasenko, as the Blues currently hold a 3-0 lead and chased Cam Talbot. Read more about what’s been a tough night for goalies so far here.

Tuesday has not been kind to goalies

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There are three games on Tuesday, yet we’ve already seen two goalies benched for poor play.

If variety is important to you … hey, at least the two situations were different, albeit with some regrettable moments of pucks going into nets.

The most depressing probably came during Tuesday’s game between the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues, which you can watch on NBCSN right now.

Now, you can justifiably hang a lot of the Oilers’ struggles on poor management from GM Peter Chiarelli, yet it’s also true that teams/coaches/general managers often see their reputations rise and fall with the play of their goalies. Cam Talbot has already been struggling in 2017-18 after playing outstanding hockey – and a ton of games – last season, but tonight serves as one of his shortest and most troubling efforts.

(And Talbot gets whatever is the opposite of bonus points for languishing while angst is nearing a fever pitch in Edmonton.)

Talbot made it through just 7:35 of ice time on Tuesday, allowing two goals on just three shots before Todd McLellan understandably pulled the plug. This Dmitrij Jaskin goal was a real soul-crusher for the reeling Oilers:

Credit Laurent Brossoit for playing very well in relief of Talbot, at least as of this writing. But this isn’t what the Oilers wanted to see. (Brossoit just allowed a goal, but he has been sturdy overall with a lot of time left in this game).

Negative night for Neuvirth

Compared to Talbot, Michal Neuvirth had a long night for the Philadelphia Flyers. Unfortunately, it was a long night in more ways than one, as Neuvirth struggled against the unexpectedly potent Vancouver Canucks.

Neuvirth got the hook after giving up four goals on 22 shots over 34:26 of game time. Some of that’s on the defense in front of him, as Philly can’t be happy to give up so many chances against a Vancouver team that still has something to prove.

So, this leaves one burning question: will any other goalies get benched tonight? As it is, two out of three is quite bad. Sorry Meatloaf.

These GMs are paying dearly for bad gambles

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Earlier today, PHT spoke about the resounding, uncomfortable parallels between Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel struggling to start this season (or at least struggling to find team success).

One can see a similar phenomenon occurring with some NHL GMs who made bold, polarizing moves to craft their teams in their images. In each case, their teams are likely to rebound – at least to some extent – yet it’s remarkable to see the similarities in how they’re being burned for, essentially, making unforced errors.

Ugly growths for Peter Chiarelli

Look, it’s not just about the Adam LarssonTaylor Hall trade, or even the Ryan StromeJordan Eberle move.

Instead, we’re looking at an Edmonton Oilers team built in the image of what GM Peter Chiarelli believes is a modern winner. Players like Hall and Eberle are gone, in part, to make room for Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. With more than $8M in cap space according to Cap Friendly, the Oilers assumed that they didn’t need to make additional moves during the summer – particularly to improve their defense – and there’s debate that it’s already too late to make a push.

In this salary cap age, sometimes you need to wave goodbye to quality players, but Chiarelli has instead moved younger, possible core guys out for older, slower, less effective pieces. I’m not the first to make this joke, but Chiarelli is the “general disappointment,” not the team. He’s the one who shopped for questionable ingredients.

The Oilers are asking too much of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Cam Talbot (who carried a ridiculous workload last season). Merely look to Tuesday night to see the strain for these players.

Bergevin in a bind

The parallels between Chiarelli and Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin are, honestly, almost startling. (Bergevin’s the better dresser, though.)

Bergevin’s bet big on the Canadiens in the short term. Most obviously, he moved a younger star defenseman in P.K. Subban for an older one with a scarier contract in Shea Weber. Even the Mikhail SergachevJonathan Drouin trade made the Habs older.

In many cases, the Habs suffer from old-school thinking in similar ways to the Oilers. The addition of Karl Alzner is divisive in that way, and it hasn’t gone well. Nathan Beaulieu isn’t a world-beater, but he can play a transition game that can help him fit in with the modern game, and the Canadiens gave him up for a pick. Andrei Markov walked to the KHL.

Much like $20M soon going to Connor McDavid + Leon Draisaitl, we can debate the Carey Price extension, especially with his health faltering, but those are the risks many NHL teams take. The thing that really stings Montreal is the unforced errors Bergevin’s made in crafting a team that plays “the old way” in some cases.

It hasn’t been pretty.

Another parallel between the Canadiens and the Oilers is that they both have cap space used for (???). It brings up a painful thought: Bergevin and Chiarelli, two swashbuckling traders, probably couldn’t get things done early this season. It’s basically the worst of both worlds for fans of the Canadiens and Oilers.

This quote from Bergevin via The Athletic’s Apron Basu (again, sub required), almost feels like he’s becoming slowly, painfully self-aware:

” … So it’s hard to make trades, it’s just the way it is,” Bergevin said. “There’s a few here and there, but at the end of the day teams want to keep their core players. That’s just the way it is.”

Bad defenses, a feeling of desperation mixed with little room for moves, and all this cap space going to waste. Yeah, this is sounding familiar. Both teams are also suffering with goalie headaches, with Carey Price ailing and Talbot struggling.

Thank goodness Dale Tallon’s back?

Of course, in both cases, asking for an Oilers/Canadiens trade is a “careful what you wish for” proposition.

Just look at the Florida Panthers and reinstated GM Dale Tallon, who showed an almost charming lack of self-awareness in discussing his return to a team that … still seems rudderless.

The Panthers allowed Jaromir Jagr to walk in free agency and gave Jason Demers, Reilly Smith, and Jonathan Marchessault away for little more than mulligans.

Last season, Florida saw crushing injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau while experiencing a slew of front office headaches. Tallon’s been able to resume control, and in doing so, going back to … wait for it … and old-school design.

Oh yeah, and gutting the sort of depth you need to succeed when that awesome Barkov line can’t do everything, kind of like Edmonton struggling when McDavid can’t do everything. This all sound familiar, doesn’t it?

***

Seriously, the parallels get creepier the deeper you dive.

The three teams even boast nearly identical records. Both the Oilers and Panthers are 7-11-2 as of this writing, while the Canadiens sit at 8-11-2.

Now there are differences at hand; it seems like the Canadiens and Oilers are at least regretting decisions, while there’s some (at least public) defiance from Tallon. It’s also fair to expect improvements in each situation, especially with Montreal and Edmonton.

And that brings us to an important question: are these teams learning any lessons about giving up skill and speed? For all we know, it might be too late for this season, but McDavid, Barkov, and others are still easily young enough that their teams can get back on the right path.

That might not happen if their teams keep making the same, critical mistakes.

James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

WATCH LIVE: Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues

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It’s not even December and the St. Louis Blues (31 points) almost have double the standings points as the Edmonton Oilers (16).

One could have predicted the Blues – a team that just keeps unearthing talent and competing, even if the deep playoff runs remain frustratingly rare – would be a good team. Some might have seen the Oilers slipping. But both of these factors, particularly with the Blues’ bevvy of injuries? It’s quite the mind-number.

While Connor McDavid absorbs some heat and the Oilers already wonder if they can make the playoffs, the Blues get Jay Bouwmeester back and some wonder if St. Louis has just about locked up a spot.

With all this in mind, it’s still not out of the question to imagine this being a playoff series, and my, is there a lot of talent involved. McDavid’s joined by the likes of Leon Draisaitl, while the Blues throw out a line that must be considered among the best in the NHL in Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, and a rising Brayden Schenn.

It should be a fascinating game to check on NBCSN. You can also watch online and via the NBC Sports App.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH LIVE

For an in-depth preview, check out this post.