2010 Stanley Cup finals: Don't expect the same 'Hawks next year

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Thumbnail image for 2-niemi.jpgBack in March, I took an in-depth look at the looming Chicago Blackhawks cap crisis. The actual cap commitments are the same, as you can see in this breakdown of the 2010-11 scenario. (Numbers from CapGeek.com)

Chicago’s 2010-11 cap commitments (some cap hits rounded up for simplicity):

Forwards (9 of 12 spots covered): Toews (6.3); Kane (6.3); Hossa (5.28); Sharp (3.9); Bolland (3.38); Versteeg (3.08); Byfuglien (3); Kopecky (1.2); Brouwer (1.03)

Defense (4 of 6): Campbell (7.14); Keith (5.54); Seabrook (3.5); Sopel (2.33)

Goalies (1 of 2): Huet (5.63)

With three forwards, 2 defensemen and 1 goalie needed, the Hawks would still be about $800,000 over next year’s cap … and the cap could go down next season.

Before we go further, here’s a list of the team’s restricted and unrestricted free agents. Significant players in bold.

Johnsson, Kim UFA
Madden, John UFA
Boynton, Nick UFA
Burish, Adam UFA
Greentree, Kyle UFA
Richmond, Danny UFA
Cullimore, Jassen UFA
Petiot, Richard UFA
Cullen, Mark UFA
Bois, Danny UFA
Ladd, Andrew RFA
Skille, Jack RFA
Eager, Ben RFA
Davis, Nathan RFA
Brophey, Evan RFA
Niemi, Antti RFA
Brennan, Mike RFA
Fraser, Colin RFA
Hjalmarsson, Niklas RFA
Hendry, Jordan RFA
Toivonen, Hannu RFA
Sawyer, Jean-Claude RFA
Hobson, Adam RFA
MacArthur, Peter RFA
Bickell, Bryan RFA

Antti Niemi’s ascent

Far and away, the free-agent-to-be whose stock rose the most is the Finnish goalie Niemi. After a very nice regular season, he’s making a name for himself as the Blackhawks’ clear No. 1. Niemi is 12-4 with a 2.33 GAA and 92.1 save percentage in the playoffs.

As I listed above, the Blackhawks are already over the current cap going into next season and have a staggering six roster spots to fill. Niemi doesn’t have much of a track record, but judging by the fact that Chicago splurged $5.62 million on Cristobal Huet, who’s to say a team won’t throw big money at Niemi?

It honestly might take paying Huet to go to the minors (or loaning him out to the KHL) to even consider keeping him around.

More analysis of what’s changed in Chicago after the jump.


The Byfuglien effect?

Before the playoffs, Dustin Byfuglien was often pointed to as trade bait. After all, he was the team’s most frustrating player, right?

Now he’s the talk of the town. The unexpected hero. He has four GWGs in the playoffs, so far, and even won the last two games for Chicago. He was also a big thorn in the side of the Vancouver Canucks in the second round.

Perhaps the Blackhawks could do what would be very painful, and use Byfuglien to get rid of an albatross like Cristobal Huet or Brian Campbell. It’s sort of like tricking your dog to take medicine by putting it in food. Or something.

On the verge of change

So what does this all mean? One of the biggest advantages the Blackhaws possess is their insane depth. While Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane and now Byfuglien receive most of the acclaim, the team also counts on production from players such as Kris Versteeg and Patrick Sharp.

Chances are – unless the cap goes up a lot – the team will depend heavily upon their top dogs. While NHL teams can live off of firepower, my guess is that things will be a lot tougher for the Blackhawks going forward.

That’s why, despite being stocked with young talent, this might be Chicago’s best chance of winning a Cup.

Talbot torments Ducks as Oilers take 2-0 series lead

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Those who vehemently argued for Cam Talbot being a Vezina finalist likely felt vindicated tonight (even if postseason results don’t factor into the voting).

In Game 1, Leon Draisaitl stole the show. Talbot was the standout of Game 2, snubbing a steady Ducks threat as Edmonton won 2-1 on Friday.

And, just like that, the Oilers are up 2-0 in their second-round series against the Anaheim Ducks. Better yet for this young group: the venue shifts to what’s likely to be a rowdy scene in Edmonton for Games 3 and 4.

The tone was set when Andrej Sekera scored just 65 seconds into the contest. That said, the Oilers could have sulked when a would-be 2-0 goal was called off (and they had to kill a penalty). Instead, they just kept battling, even after Jakob Silfverberg ended Talbot’s shutout bit with a laser beam on the power play.

Speaking of the power play, the Oilers managed to match the Ducks (1-for-4 each on the PP), even as Talbot faced 12 shots on goal during Anaheim’s power-play opportunities.

Talbot ultimately made 39 of 40 stops, and while the Ducks kept Connor McDavid from scoring, number 97 sure looked speedy and dangerous at times in Game 2.

Anaheim came into the second round with home-ice advantage through the West side of the playoffs, seemingly enjoying a golden opportunity when other conference powers fell. Instead, it’s looking like the Oilers might just have a chance to prove that they’re big-time contenders, too.

Game 3 airs on NBCSN at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday. You can watch online and via the NBC Sports App; click here for the livestream.

Latest goalie interference mess: Oilers get penalty, not goal

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Ah, goalie interference. Does the fun ever start?

Arguably the most irritating facet of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs reared its pesky head once again on Friday, as the Edmonton Oilers saw a would-be 2-0 goal disallowed in the first period of Game 2 against the Anaheim Ducks.

The goal wasn’t just disallowed, either, as Mark Letestu was given a minor penalty.

One would imagine that there are opinions for or against the goal (and penalty counting); there are also many who are just getting a little worn out by the uncertainty surrounding such calls. Tomas Holmstrom is nodding his head so hard right now, everyone.

Here’s one unhappy take:

Moments after this post went up, the Oilers made it 2-0 for real this time. Check out the game here.

Math may help build Vegas Knights, but biggest aim is not being boring

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Unlike Pierre Dorion, it sounds like Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee would rather listen to analytics-minded people rather than … you know, hit them.

As McPhee readies for the expansion draft, he told The Star’s Kevin McGran in Q&A that they’ll at least be factored into decisions.

I’ve been really fascinated by how revealing that data can be. You have these kids speaking a different language. But I’m convinced it has a really important place in this game. You have to pay attention to it, and you have to use it.

Naturally, the real question with McPhee and other executives comes down to how much they will lean on analytics. Some teams seem to pick and choose when to listen to such voices, ending up with an odd mix of moves that please and unnerve the “fancy stats” community.

Owner Bill Foley gave a good idea of how much they’ll lean on stats vs. more traditional approaches in an interview with the Vegas Hockey Hotline back in February, which was transcribed by The Hockey Writers’ Keith Scheessele.

“Analytics is not going to drive how we draft,” Foley said. “Analytics are going to supplement what the scouts are seeing. We’re going to rely on the scouts and what they recommend.”

(Foley also spoke of rating players in 10 different categories, which started to make one think about how old sports video games could only quantify skills in so many ways. Anyway …)

So, it sounds like McPhee & Co. will take a modern approach – a mixture of the old and the new – rather than going full-on bold and revolutionary like, say, the Cleveland Browns or Golden State Warriors.

Considering the mystery of roster quality one faces with the Vegas Knights, it honestly might be most important that McPhee is repeatedly stating that he doesn’t aim to put together a boring hockey team.

Hey, if it takes a while to be good, at least the Vegas Knights might fit with their environment and put on a show.

Tarasenko’s two goals help Blues tie series with Predators

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One of the (many) remarkable things about the St. Louis Blues dispatching the Minnesota Wild was that they didn’t need a ton of production from Vladimir Tarasenko. He didn’t score a goal until the clinching game of that series.

The Blues needed more from him tonight, and he responded with two huge goals to help St. Louis win 3-2 in Game 2, tying the second-round series at 1-1.

Tarasenko scored the opening goal on that major power-play opportunity from the Vernon Fiddler knee on Colton Parayko, while Joel Edmundson wisely got out of the way to let Tarasenko nab the game-winner.

That ended up being the decisive factor as the Nashville Predators finally lost their first game of the postseason.

St. Louis must be breathing a sigh of relief for a number of reasons. The series shifts to Nashville for Games 3 and 4, so going down 2-0 might have been lethal.

Even beyond that, the Blues had some breaks go their way that likely won’t repeat to the same degree in future contests. The Predators didn’t receive a single power-play opportunity while St. Louis spent significant chunks of the contest on the man advantage, going 1-for-5 (but again, that includes a major).

The Blues also won despite what must have been a frustrating start. They only managed a 1-1 tie after the first 20 minutes despite holding Nashville to a mere three shots on goal.

The Predators also managed leads of 1-0 and 2-1, yet the Blues kept fighting to get back in this series. Game 3 will air on NBC at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. You can watch online and via the NBC Sports App (Click here for the livestream link).

* – That said, he made a lot of commotion to set up Edmundson’s overtime game-winner from Game 1. That connection continued on Friday, as you likely noticed.