Jim Corsi: The man behind Corsi numbers

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The hockey world is ages behind “Moneyball” philosophy and Sabermetrics, just to name a few buzzwords associated with the innovative stats championed by baseball writers and stats gurus for years. That isn’t to say that hockey bloggers/writers/fans/front office people are completely turning a blind eye to analysis that goes deeper than goals, assists and plus/minuses, though.

One of the most well-known “new” stats is the Corsi Number, named after Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi (he’s the guy in that photo who’s either short … or maybe standing next to Tyler Myers). To explain the stat (a bit too) simply: it’s basically an alternative to plus/minus in which shots replace goals. Here’s a more detailed description from David Staples’ great story about Corsi (the man and the stat).

Corsi is a plus/minus stat that measures shots directed at net. For example, if the Edmonton Oilers direct 30 shots at even strength at the Calgary Flames’ net in a game, while the Flames direct 45 shots at the Oilers’ net, the Oilers have a Corsi of -15 for the game. People who put a lot of faith in Corsi plus/minus numbers argue that you even if a team loses a stretch of games, but if that team has a strong Corsi plus/minus in each game, it’s an indication that the team really isn’t so bad, that it’s moving the puck to the right end of the ice, that it has territorial dominance, and that the goals will soon come.

This team Corsi number is also broken down and applied to individual players. For example, if Sheldon Souray is out on the ice for 10 shots directed at the Flames’ net, while the Flames direct 15 shots at the Oilers’ net while Souray is on the ice, he’s said to have a Corsi plus/minus of -5.

It’s a fascinating story that is definitely worth the read. I’ll leave you with the stat’s origin story, from Corsi himself.

The traditional way of measuring a goalie’s work load was to look at the number of shots against the goalie faced in a game. But having played goalie himself, Corsi didn’t trust that basic indicator so much. “When I played, I’d finish a game with about 25 shots on goal and I was really tired. I was really very, very tired,” he says.

“When you look at 20 or 25 shots, you say, Well, it’s a light game.’ But if you look at a game, an (attacker) comes down the right side, he’s got the puck, and he turns up the boards, towards the wall, the goalie is not standing on his heels going, ‘Oh, you know, whatever.’ He’s going to bear down, tense up, prepare that this is going to end up as a shot. Now as (the attacker) turns, he (the goalie) has still got to be engaged and wait for the next play.

“You get a 25-shot game, but with all the blocked shots and the increase in blocked shots and the tightness of the defensive zone coverage, the activity of the goalie could almost be like 75 to 100 actions at the net.”

To get a better sense of how much work his goalies faced, Corsi started to use the NHL’s data that tracks missed shots, blocked shots and shots on goal. He added all these together to come up with a goalie’s so-called Corsi number for a night of work. “It’s really just a number that I’ve used for goaltenders to hone in on their fitness and how much activity is actually going on with respect to goaltending.”

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    Report: Blue Jackets RFA Anderson in contact with Hockey Canada about 2018 Olympics

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    The preseason is well underway and Josh Anderson is still without a contract.

    Anderson, who scored 17 goals and 29 points last season for the Columbus Blue Jackets, is one of two remaining restricted free agents without a new deal. The other is Andreas Athanasiou of the Detroit Red Wings.

    While there were reports this summer about Athanasiou potentially going to the KHL for this season, John Shannon of Sportsnet reported on Thursday that Anderson’s representatives have reached out to Hockey Canada’s staff about the 2018 Olympics. 

    Anderson’s entry-level contract, with an AAV of just over $894,000, expired at the end of last season.

    Meanwhile, here is the latest on this ongoing contract situation.

    Making an impression: Sergachev has ‘NHL written all over him’

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    Mikhail Sergachev has, over the summer, stated his belief he can play in the NHL this season.

    He had a small taste of NHL action last season, appearing in four games for Montreal — the team that selected him ninth overall in 2016 — before getting sent back to junior and then being traded in June to Tampa Bay, as part of a blockbuster involving Jonathan Drouin to the Habs.

    Well, Sergachev made a statement Wednesday in his preseason debut for the Lightning.

    He scored once. He also played more than 22 minutes, which led all Lightning players on the night. That included time on the power play and penalty kill. If he was looking to make a favorable impression, to show that he belongs at the NHL level when the regular season begins, this seems to be another step in that direction.

    “You watch this kid skate, shoot, stickhandle, he’s got NHL written all over him,” Tampa Bay’s associate coach Rick Bowness told the Tampa Bay Times. “Now we’ve got to give him experience. How much can he handle?”

    There is competition on the blue line, with eight defensemen under contract in Tampa Bay for this season. That includes Sergachev, who is still only 19 years old. After getting sent back to junior last season, he recorded 43 points in 50 games with Windsor and then won the Memorial Cup that spring. That said, he’s made it a point of saying going back to junior “is not an option” for him.

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    Looking to make the leap: Mikhail Sergachev

    Report: Lupul will have ‘independent medical exam’

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    Joffrey Lupul issued a statement Wednesday, saying he wouldn’t seek a second medical opinion after the Maple Leafs announced he didn’t pass his training camp physical.

    A day later, reports have surfaced that the 33-year-old forward will, in fact, undergo another, independent medical test.

    That is according to James Mirtle of The Athletic:

    Earlier this week, Lupul made accusations against the Maple Leafs on Instagram.

    “I’m ready … just awaiting the call,” Lupul wrote in the comments section of the Instagram post, per a screen grab. “haha failed physical? They cheat. Everyone lets them.”

    Lupul, who didn’t pass his physical for a second year in a row, issued an apology yesterday. But those comments — which have since been deleted — seem to have grabbed the attention of the league.

    Darren Dreger of TSN added to that, saying it’s the NHL pursuing a second medical opinion on this matter.

    “The National Hockey League has that right to pursue the second opinion. That’s exactly what they’re engaging in right now,” Dreger reported Thursday.

    “The reasoning behind it is because of the comment that Lupul made on social media. I’ll go back a year ago. The league didn’t step in a year ago but Lupul stayed quiet at that point. So they want to make sure — ‘They’ being the National Hockey League — that the medical evaluation from the Toronto Maple Leafs is 100 per cent above the board.”

    Team USA won’t include NHL draft-eligible prospects at 2018 Olympics

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    BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) General manager Jim Johannson has ruled out the possibility of the U.S. men’s hockey team having NHL draft-eligible prospects competing at the Winter Olympics in February.

    Johannson tells The Associated Press he doesn’t view anyone from the 18-and-younger pool of prospects capable of cracking the projected lineup of non-NHL players, many of whom are opening this season playing in Europe.

    USA Hockey’s assistant executive director says he’s also targeting a number of established college players, and would not rule out keeping a spot or two open for members of the U.S. team competing at the World Junior Championships this winter.

    Johansson spoke in Buffalo, New York, on Thursday, where he is attending USA Hockey’s sixth annual All-American Prospects game. The game features the top 42 U.S.-born players eligible to be selected in the NHL draft in June.