Ranking out the playoff goalies

1-niemi.jpgSo you fancy a look at the playoffs in a different light and subscribe to the theory that a great goalie can carry a team to the Stanley Cup and want the numbers to back you up in an argument. Good thing you’ve turned to us because it’s high time someone did take a look at how the 16 goaltenders in the NHL Playoffs shake out statistically speaking. Brandon gave things a look over this morning so feel free to give it a look to compare notes.

If you’re looking at goals against as a measuring stick, some of the top choices may catch you a little off guard. I’m listing off those goalies that either have been or are presumed to be the starters for their teams for the playoffs.

1. Tuukka Rask (BOS) 1.97

2. Ryan Miller (BUF) 2.22

3. Martin Brodeur (NJD) 2.24

4. Antti Niemi (CHI) 2.25

5. Jimmy Howard (DET) 2.26

6. Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) 2.29

7. Jaroslav Halak (MON) 2.40

8. Evgeni Nabokov (SJ) 2.43

9. Pekka Rinne (NAS) 2.53

10. Jonathan Quick (LA) 2.54

11. Brian Elliott (OTT) 2.57

12. Roberto Luonvo (VAN) 2.57

13. Craig Anderson (COL) 2.64

14. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) 2.65

15. Brian Boucher (PHI) 2.76

16. Jose Theodore (WAS) 2.81

For those of you wondering if Theodore or Semyon Varlamov is the right choice in Washington, Varlamov’s goals against average is 2.55 in 26 starts this year. Where the difference comes in between the two is in save percentage, and that difference isn’t all that great as Varlamov checks in .909 and Theodore at .911, a difference of .002 percent and barely negligible given Theodore has played 21 more games, his statistics tell a little bit more than Varlamov’s do.

As for the save percentages of the goalies and how they rank out,
things juggle a little bit standings-wise.

1. Tuukka Rask (BOS) .931

2. Ryan Miller (BUF) .929

3. Jaroslav Halak (MON) .924

4. Jimmy Howard (DET) .924

5. Evgeni Nabokov (SJ) .922

6. Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) .920

7. Craig Anderson (COL) .917

8. Martin Brodeur (NJD) .916

9. Roberto Luongo (VAN) .913

10. Antti Niemi (CHI) .912

11. Jose Theodore (WAS) .911

12. Pekka Rinne (NAS) .911

13. Brian Elliott (OTT) .909

14. Jonathan Quick (LA) .907

15. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) .905

16. Brian Boucher (PHI) .899

What the save percentage tells us compared to the goals against
average is that guys like Ryan Miller and Tuukka Rask are, indeed, that
good. It also tells us that Jimmy Howard and Evgeni Nabokov are a bit
better than their goals against averages let on as they’re saving a
higher percentage of shots than some players that are above them in
goals against (read: they’re seeing more rubber thrown at them).

Obviously some of these rankings are a bit skewed due to workload.
Where Tuukka Rask looks unbeatable thanks to playing 45 games, Brian
Boucher looks like a total chump because he’s played in 33 games. Some
of these guys are horses (no, not literally Alex Rodriguez doesn’t play
hockey) and fatigue could be a factor for some of them, especially those
not used to it. Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles played in 72 games this
year and some have wondered aloud about his ability to keep his great
season going. Craig Anderson in Colorado was a career backup before this
season and played in 71 games for a team that started to show signs of
wearing down at the end of the year.

Who’s got reasons to worry out of this? The obvious answers are the
Penguins and Capitals as both Fleury and Theodore are closer to the
bottom of the playoff goalie list. Whether or not Fleury does have an
on/off switch remains to be seen, but he certainly more than proved
himself last year. The Flyers are feeling the burn having to go with
Brian Boucher because, at best, this year he was supposed to be a backup
goalie and now he’s got to carry the team in the playoffs against
Martin Brodeur’s Devils.

If you just want to judge how these series are going to go by stats
alone, you’d be a fool but it’s not a bad starting block to run with. Of
course, how goalies handle playoff jitters and seeing the same team
night in and night out are also thoughts to ponder as well. This year
should shake out interesting as there aren’t a lot of “old standbys”
getting the nod in goal in these playoffs.

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    Lightning storm back against Blackhawks, finish one point out of playoffs

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    Who would have thought that the Tampa Bay Lightning would rally back from a 4-1 deficit tonight? Then again, who expected them to be so close to a playoff spot mere weeks ago, when they were sellers at the trade deadline?

    The Lightning continue to show that they won’t just roll over and die, scoring four unanswered goals to beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-4 in overtime on Monday.

    While Jonathan Drouin was a catalyst for the second-period rally, it was an unlikely scorer who clinched the victory, as Yanni Gourde ended a thrilling run of 3-on-3 chances with the overtime-winner.

    Really, it might have been fitting. Things looked glum when Tomas Jurco scored his first goal of the season against the Lightning, then the mood was totally flipped when Gourde’s second tally of 2016-17 grabbed a huge win.

    With the Islanders losing to the Predators, the Hurricanes only managing a “loser point” against the Red Wings and the Bruins idle, Tampa Bay is a breath away from a playoff berth:

    Final wild card: Bruins – 84 points in 75 games played

    Lightning – 83 points in 75 GP
    Islanders – 82 points in 75 GP
    Hurricanes – 80 points in 74 GP

    Yes, all of a sudden, a long-shot postseason run seems quite attainable.

    Maybe the Lightning would prefer it if we kept counting them out, though?

    Hurricanes’ Lack taken off on stretcher after collision on Red Wings’ OT goal

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    The Carolina Hurricanes fell short of a win on Monday, but their thoughts likely revolve around the health of goalie Eddie Lack instead.

    Lack was taken off the ice on a stretcher after a collision during Andreas Athanasiou‘s game-winning goal in overtime. Officials reviewed that the goal counted, giving the Red Wings a 4-3 overtime victory against Carolina.

    While it’s been a tough overall season for Hurricanes goalie, Lack has been an integral part of Carolina’s push for a postseason spot. PHT will keep an eye out for updates regarding his condition after this scary collision.

    The Red Wings stayed on the ice as Lack was taken off, a nice gesture after an unfortunate accident.

    Drouin triggers second-period rally for Lightning vs. Blackhawks

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    Just when you think it’s time to count the Tampa Bay Lightning out, they rally back.

    It’s been happening overall in 2016-17, and that pattern carried over into Monday’s game against the Chicago Blackhawks.

    The Lightning decided to put Andrei Vasilevskiy back in the net in the second period after he gave up three goals on eight shots in the opening frame … and at first, that looked like a mistake that would do them in. Chicago went up 4-1 and things looked dire.

    But, again, the Bolts followed the script when it comes to flipping the script, with Jonathan Drouin triggering a resounding rally in the second.

    Droun’s first goal came 11:45 into the second period, followed about a minute later by an Anton Stralman tally. Less than four minutes later, Drouin hit the 20-goal mark with the 4-4 marker on the power play.

    First, check out Drouin’s first goal, which began the rally:

    Next, witness the 4-4 goal, also by Drouin:

    And … just like that, the Lightning tied things up. Wow.

    Apparently Drouin created more offense than just his two goals, too:

    Impressive. Remember when he seemed like he was out the door last season? Now that feels like another reminder not to give up on this group, no matter how ugly things look at times.

    Video will be added when available.

    Lightning give Vasilevskiy the (brief) hook after very rare Jurco goal

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    By just about any measure, Monday’s been lousy to Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

    He was pulled with a few minutes remaining in the first period after Chicago Blackhawks built a 3-1 lead, scoring those three goals on just eight shots on net.

    You could summarize Vasilevskiy’s awful start by those numbers, or by how rare the 3-1 goal was for the scorer.

    Tomas Jurco failed to score a goal or an assist in 16 games with the Red Wings, then went pointless in nine more games with Chicago before finally scoring his first goal of the season on Monday.

    Now, Jon Cooper didn’t pull Vasilevskiy because Jurco scored that tally. Still, it rubs a little extra salt in his wounds all things considered.

    Here’s the Jurco goal:

    Patrick Kane‘s 2-1 goal might have hurt the most, actually, as it quickly dissolved a tying tally by Ondrej Palat:

    Update: The Lightning decided to put Vasilevskiy back in net to begin the second period. Interesting.