Ranking out the playoff goalies

1-niemi.jpgSo you fancy a look at the playoffs in a different light and subscribe to the theory that a great goalie can carry a team to the Stanley Cup and want the numbers to back you up in an argument. Good thing you’ve turned to us because it’s high time someone did take a look at how the 16 goaltenders in the NHL Playoffs shake out statistically speaking. Brandon gave things a look over this morning so feel free to give it a look to compare notes.

If you’re looking at goals against as a measuring stick, some of the top choices may catch you a little off guard. I’m listing off those goalies that either have been or are presumed to be the starters for their teams for the playoffs.

1. Tuukka Rask (BOS) 1.97

2. Ryan Miller (BUF) 2.22

3. Martin Brodeur (NJD) 2.24

4. Antti Niemi (CHI) 2.25

5. Jimmy Howard (DET) 2.26

6. Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) 2.29

7. Jaroslav Halak (MON) 2.40

8. Evgeni Nabokov (SJ) 2.43

9. Pekka Rinne (NAS) 2.53

10. Jonathan Quick (LA) 2.54

11. Brian Elliott (OTT) 2.57

12. Roberto Luonvo (VAN) 2.57

13. Craig Anderson (COL) 2.64

14. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) 2.65

15. Brian Boucher (PHI) 2.76

16. Jose Theodore (WAS) 2.81

For those of you wondering if Theodore or Semyon Varlamov is the right choice in Washington, Varlamov’s goals against average is 2.55 in 26 starts this year. Where the difference comes in between the two is in save percentage, and that difference isn’t all that great as Varlamov checks in .909 and Theodore at .911, a difference of .002 percent and barely negligible given Theodore has played 21 more games, his statistics tell a little bit more than Varlamov’s do.

As for the save percentages of the goalies and how they rank out,
things juggle a little bit standings-wise.

1. Tuukka Rask (BOS) .931

2. Ryan Miller (BUF) .929

3. Jaroslav Halak (MON) .924

4. Jimmy Howard (DET) .924

5. Evgeni Nabokov (SJ) .922

6. Ilya Bryzgalov (PHX) .920

7. Craig Anderson (COL) .917

8. Martin Brodeur (NJD) .916

9. Roberto Luongo (VAN) .913

10. Antti Niemi (CHI) .912

11. Jose Theodore (WAS) .911

12. Pekka Rinne (NAS) .911

13. Brian Elliott (OTT) .909

14. Jonathan Quick (LA) .907

15. Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) .905

16. Brian Boucher (PHI) .899

What the save percentage tells us compared to the goals against
average is that guys like Ryan Miller and Tuukka Rask are, indeed, that
good. It also tells us that Jimmy Howard and Evgeni Nabokov are a bit
better than their goals against averages let on as they’re saving a
higher percentage of shots than some players that are above them in
goals against (read: they’re seeing more rubber thrown at them).

Obviously some of these rankings are a bit skewed due to workload.
Where Tuukka Rask looks unbeatable thanks to playing 45 games, Brian
Boucher looks like a total chump because he’s played in 33 games. Some
of these guys are horses (no, not literally Alex Rodriguez doesn’t play
hockey) and fatigue could be a factor for some of them, especially those
not used to it. Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles played in 72 games this
year and some have wondered aloud about his ability to keep his great
season going. Craig Anderson in Colorado was a career backup before this
season and played in 71 games for a team that started to show signs of
wearing down at the end of the year.

Who’s got reasons to worry out of this? The obvious answers are the
Penguins and Capitals as both Fleury and Theodore are closer to the
bottom of the playoff goalie list. Whether or not Fleury does have an
on/off switch remains to be seen, but he certainly more than proved
himself last year. The Flyers are feeling the burn having to go with
Brian Boucher because, at best, this year he was supposed to be a backup
goalie and now he’s got to carry the team in the playoffs against
Martin Brodeur’s Devils.

If you just want to judge how these series are going to go by stats
alone, you’d be a fool but it’s not a bad starting block to run with. Of
course, how goalies handle playoff jitters and seeing the same team
night in and night out are also thoughts to ponder as well. This year
should shake out interesting as there aren’t a lot of “old standbys”
getting the nod in goal in these playoffs.

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    Clutter-bucks: Isles sign energy guy to five-year, $17.5 million extension

    NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 03:  Cal Clutterbuck #15 of the New York Islanders scores his second goal of the game at 9:53 of the third period against the Dallas Stars at the Barclays Center on January 3, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  The Islanders defeated the Stars 6-5. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
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    The New York Islanders made a splash on Friday, signing veteran forward Cal Clutterbuck to a five-year, $17.5 million extension — one that carries a $3.5 million average annual cap hit through 2023.

    Clutterbuck, 29, has two goals and nine points through 25 games this year, while averaging 15:26 TOI per night (his highest average since joining the Isles four years ago). As per usual, he leads the club in hits — one of the staples of his game — and serves as one of the club’s alternate captains.

    This new contract represents a nice raise for the former Minnesota Wild man. His last contract, set to expire in July, was of the four-year, $11 million variety, and carried a $2.75 million cap hit.

    This contract also resembles the one GM Garth Snow gave another of the club’s role forwards. This summer, Casey Cizikas signed a five-year, $16.75 million extension — one with a $3.35 million hit — despite the fact he’d never scored more than 30 points in a season, or averaged more than 14 minutes of ice time.

    This style of spending — along with splashes made for free agent disappointments Jason Chimera and Andrew Ladd — is sure to raise some questions. The Isles opted not to spend that money on retaining two of their key players from a season ago, Frans Nielsen and Kyle Okposo, and the club has struggled to find its form through the first quarter of this year.

    Bettman: Salary cap could stay the same for next season

    TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 27:  NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman unveils the League's Centennial celebration plans for 2017 during a press conference at the World Cup of Hockey 2016 at Air Canada Centre on September 27, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
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    Don’t expect a big jump in next season’s salary cap.

    “We’re not going to give out any numbers now,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said yesterday, per Yahoo Sports. “The cap could range from where it is now to a couple or so million up, but we’re all going to have to focus on what makes the most sense moving forward.”

    The salary cap only went up slightly for the current season, from $71.4 million to $73 million. The only slight increase was due to the lower Canadian dollar, which negatively impacted last season’s league revenues by “$100 or 200 million,” Bettman said earlier this year.

    The loonie has been holding relatively steady for around half a year. It’s currently worth $0.76 USD and has been helped by the recent oil rally.

    A flat salary cap would be bad news for big spenders like the Chicago Blackhawks, who still need to get Artemi Panarin signed to an extension. The Los Angeles Kings could also be forced to make some tough decisions, as they’ve got Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson in need of new deals. Ditto for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who have key RFAs in Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz, and Conor Sheary.

    Related: Trades galore? McPhee expecting ‘a massive player redistribution before the expansion draft’

    A few ‘bad decisions’ have been costing Lundqvist

    New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist (30) reacts after giving up a goal to Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) during the second period of an NHL hockey game, Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016, in New York. The Penguins won 6-1. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
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    Henrik Lundqvist has set such a high bar that his 12-8-1 record with a .912 save percentage is cause for great concern these days in New York.

    That his backup, Antti Raanta, is 6-1-0 with a .932 save percentage only contributes to that concern, because if Raanta can manage those numbers, what’s Lundqvist’s excuse?

    “I feel like I’m tracking the puck well, moving well,” Lundqvist told the Daily News. “It just comes down to some bad decisions at times that cost me.”

    Indeed, December has not started well for The King. He’s allowed 10 goals in three starts for a save percentage of .894. In Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to the Islanders, his decision to poke check a loose puck led to the winning goal by Andrew Ladd.

    But while this month has been a struggle, it should be noted that Lundqvist was mostly excellent in November. He finished with a .925 save percentage, including that 40-save victory on Black Friday in Philadelphia.

    Which is to say, he has more than earned the benefit of the doubt. Since 2008-09, Lundqvist has not finished a season with a save percentage below .920, and that is a remarkable achievement.

    Raanta was solid again last night in Winnipeg, where the Rangers beat the Jets, 2-1. A starting goalie for tonight’s game in Chicago has not yet been announced, but Lundqvist is a good bet.

    Top 10 career save percentages among goalies with at least 300 NHL starts

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    Jets send talented rookie Connor to AHL

    WINNIPEG, MANITOBA - OCTOBER 23:  Goalie Cam Talbot #33 of the Edmonton Oilers pushes Kyle Connor #81 of the Winnipeg Jets  during the 2016 Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic hockey game on October 23, 2016 at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. (Photo by Jason Halstead /Getty Images)
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    Kyle Connor is on his way to the minors.

    On Friday, Winnipeg announced that Connor — the former Michigan Wolverines star taken 17th overall in 2015 — has been assigned to the club’s AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose.

    Connor, 19, had just one goal and four points through 19 games this year, struggling to adjust to life at the professional level.

    He’d been a healthy scratch for each of the Jets’ last six games and, prior to that, missed five games with an upper-body injury after getting nailed into the boards by L.A. forward Kyle Clifford.

    The Jets are getting healthy up front, which further explains why Connor is on his way to the Moose. Bryan Little and Mathieu Perreault both recently returned from injury.