Ryan Miller deserves MVP recognition

Miller.jpgDirk Hoag of On The Forecheck has a great post this afternoon on who
the front runners for the NHL MVP award are, based on statistical
analysis of which players in NHL have positively impacted their team the
most. He uses 5-on-5 impact, power play impact, penalty kill impact and
penalty +/- for a ‘total impact’ that each player had on goals for and
against throughout the season. Says Dirk:

Remember –
these measures reflect the influence of a given player on the
performance of his team. They are not meant to be used a direct
comparison of players on different teams to say “who is better”. It is,
rather, “who is more valuable to his team”. Yes, this analysis does
leave goaltenders out of the equation, but we can argue over the Vezina
another day.

The winner according to his formula is
easily Alex Ovechkin. Sidney Crosby didn’t even finish in the top 15,
just in case you were wondering. But I’m left wondering: “Where would
Ryan Miller fit in?”

Dirk does acknowledge that this analysis
leaves out goaltenders, but I don’t think that goalies should
automatically be relegated to the Vezina. That’s the trophy for the best
goaltender in the NHL. The forwards have their own: the Selke, the Art
Ross, the Maurice Richard. The defensemen have the Norris. So winning
one of the others doesn’t mean that excuses them from being out of
contention from the Hart. Just because a goaltender wins the Vezina
doesn’t mean he’s not worthy of the MVP.

There’s a precedent for
goaltenders winning the Hart. Jose Theodore won in 2002 and Dominik
Hasak won in 1997 and 1998. It’s rare — by my count just six
goaltenders have won since 1923. So is Ryan Miller deserving this
season?

Miller is just 7th in the NHL in total wins for a
goaltender, five behind Martin Brodeur. It’s important to note that
Marty has started seven more games, however. Beyond that stat, Ryan
Miller is near dominant in every other category. He and Tuukka Rask are
neck and neck in goals-against average and save percentage, yet Miller
has start 25 more games.

There’s also the fact that there is
absolutely no way the Sabres would be in the position they are now (3rd
in the East) without Ryan Miller in net. That’s a tough notion to
quantify with stats aside from the normal goaltender numbers, and
certain tough to use the same system that Dirk uses above since
goaltenders can’t help their team score.

Yet you can’t deny that
Miller’s numbers are amazing; especially in this NHL that does all it
can to help the offense. It’s not Buffalo’s defense is carrying him
either; the Sabres rank 24th in the NHL in shots allowed per game
(compared to the New Jersey Devils, who are 2nd).

Should Ryan
Miller be considered? I’m sure he will be. Should he be a serious
contender for the Hart? There’s no doubt in my mind that he’s just as
important to the Sabres as the Ovechkin is the Capitals.

Can the
Capitals win without Ovechkin? It would be tough, but they’d still be a
very, very good team. Can the Sabres win without Ryan Miller?

Not a
chance.

You vote: Who should win the Hart Trophy?

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    The Buzzer: Ovechkin is clutch

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    Two games on Thursday

    Bruins 3, Maple Leafs 1 (Bruins lead series 3-1)

    The Boston Bruins continue to show that they can survive – if not thrive – with key players out of the lineup. They don’t get much more “key” than Patrice Bergeron, who was unable to suit up for Game 4. Even so, Tuukka Rask made some crucial saves and the Bruins connected on two 2-on-1 rushes to snag a 3-1 series lead. The Maple Leafs must grapple with a lot of uncomfortable questions as they see their season slip to the brink of elimination.

    Capitals 4, Blue Jackets 1 (Series tied 2-2)

    This game was all about patterns continuing, or breaking.

    Continuing: The road team winning. The away team has won all four contests during this series, so this one returns to Washington with the two teams now tied up 2-2. It’s also another instance of Alex Ovechkin being sneaky-clutch, although many people will disagree because of team results. Washington’s starting to pull away in terms of puck possession during the series, and that continued on Thursday, too.

    Breaking: For the first time in the series, the game ended in regulation. It wasn’t all that close, either, as the Caps won 4-1 and were safe even considering one empty-netter.

    [NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

    Three Stars

    1. Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins – There will be talk of Bergeron, Auston Matthews not being able to score, Mike Babcock’s decisions, and other factors from Game 4. Rask helped to push those discussions to the forefront – rather than talk about which team has the edge if they ended up tied – as he was sharp on Thursday. Rask stopped 31 out of 32 shots, factoring heavily in Boston building a 3-1 series lead against Toronto.

    2. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals – After scoring two goals in Game 1, Kuznetsov had been held silent by the Bruins in Games 2 and 3. The Russian center made up for lost time in Game 4, scoring an empty-netter and two assists in that 4-1 win. Both of his assists were primary helpers, while he checked many other boxes by winning more than half of his draws (10 of 18), generating a +3 rating, and firing four shots on goal.

    3. Alex Ovechkin, Capitals – Ovechkin fired a shot on Sergei Bobrovsky, which created a rebound opportunity for T.J. Oshie during a Washington power play, a goal that ended up being the game-winner. Ovechkin also scored from the right face-off circle for an important insurance goal. Ovechkin fired five SOG and was a +1 in Game 4.

    Factoids

    There’s plenty of focus on Bergeron being out and Marchand scoring/agitating, but don’t forget about David Pastrnak‘s brilliance.

    Again, Alex Ovechkin is more clutch than people realize. By scoring the 49th playoff goal of his career, Ovechkin tied Henri Richard for 60th in NHL history. You may remember Henri as a) Maurice Richard’s brother and b) the guy who won the Stanley Cup 11 times.

    Friday’s games

    Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m. ET, NBCSN
    Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, 7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network
    Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, 9:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN

    James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

    Capitals tie series with Blue Jackets

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    In Game 4, the Washington Capitals showed their heart by not working overtime.

    The Capitals dropped both of their home games to start their first-round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets, opening the floodgates for people to dust off their favorite, cruel jokes about this team. They’ll return home with those one-liners drying up, though.

    After falling behind 2-0 in the series, the Capitals flipped the script to tie it up 2-2 after beating the Blue Jackets both times in Columbus. The symmetry wasn’t complete, however; while Washington continued the series trend of overtime nail-biters by winning beyond regulation in Game 3, they made no mistake about winning Game 4 by a score of 4-1.

    [NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

    This wasn’t a case where the Bruins got the bounces and the finishes to win. The Capitals have shown signs of dominance even in defeats during this series, but they really smothered the Blue Jackets in Game 4.

    The Capitals generated a 33-24 shots on goal edge, won about two-thirds of the faceoffs, and generally carried the play by every metric.

    Tom Wilson making it 1-0 was valuable, and jokes about blown 2-0 leads aside, T.J. Oshie‘s eventual game-winner was important during the second period. Alex Ovechkin‘s goal from his opposite office widened the gap too much for an overmatched Blue Jackets team, even with Boone Jenner scoring and giving Columbus a brief boost.

    With a goal and an assist in Game 4, this is yet another reminder that Ovechkin is a playoff performer, even if his team isn’t always there with him. After Washington went down 2-0 against Columbus, Ovechkin said “it’s going to be fun when we bounce back and tie the series,” and that’s exactly the situation Washington is in after … whatever the opposite of “holding serve” is.

    Of course, people will quickly forget this triumph-within-the-series if the Capitals ultimately bow out of the first round, anyway.

    The Caps must feel really good about their collective play as they aim to become the first team to win at home in this series in Game 5. Their power play has been productive, playing tight defense, getting scoring from Ovechkin/others, and Braden Holtby looks poised in regaining his usual spot in net. It’s the sort of stretch that changes the Capitals’ narrative from “here we go again” to “could this be the year we finally make a run?”

    With this series now essentially becoming a best two-out-of-three clash, the disposition could easily go from sunny back to gloomy, but give this beleaguered group credit for keeping cool heads and making this anyone’s game once again.

    James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

    Bruins push Leafs to brink

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    The Boston Bruins found themselves on the wrong end of plenty of stats in Game 4, but even with Patrice Bergeron on the shelf, they won 3-1 to push the Toronto Maple Leafs to the brink of elimination.

    Boston took a 3-1 series lead with tonight’s win despite Toronto generating a 32-21 shots on goal advantage, hogging the puck, and holding home-ice advantage.

    [NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

    Goaltending was one big area of advantage for the Bruins. Tuukka Rask was forced to make some tough saves as Mitch Marner and other Leafs players created plenty of chances. One cannot help but wonder if fatigue is a bit of a factor for workhorse Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen, meanwhile, as he’d likely love to have this Torey Krug goal back:

    That early 1-0 lead provided a cushion for the Bruins to adjust to life without Bergeron (again), although Tomas Plekanec did tie things up. Ultimately, the Bruins were able to cash in on two 2-on-1 rushes, with Brad Marchand burying a tremendous setup by David Pastrnak for the game-winner and Jake DeBrusk finding the net after a great feed by David Krejci (who has absorbed some criticism for his play lately).

    The two goals were remarkably similar in exhibiting the Bruins’ smarts and finish, along with the Maple Leafs lacking in a few areas on defense, as Nikita Zaitsev and Roman Polak were exposed (among others). Here’s that Marchang GWG:

    Game 5 shifts back to Boston on Saturday. You can watch that game on CNBC, with puck drop slated for 8 p.m. ET.

    James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.

    Bruins without Bergeron vs. Leafs in Game 4

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    The Boston Bruins rolled through much of the regular season despite injuries, even to key players like Patrice Bergeron. The fact that they’re unfortunately experienced playing without Bergeron is probably the only silver lining regarding his late scratch heading into Game 4.

    The Bruins announced that Bergeron is day-to-day with what they’re deeming an upper-body injury, so Riley Nash slips into Bergeron’s spot between Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak.

    [NBC’s Stanley Cup Playoff Hub]

    This stands as an obvious opportunity for Auston Matthews to roam more freely against the Bruins and a chance for the Maple Leafs to tie this series in front of their home fans.

    NBC Sports Boston’s Joe Haggerty makes a good point that Bergeron missing Game 4 is especially troubling since the Bruins played Game 3 on Monday, gaining an extra off day between contests.

    Bergeron generated five assists through the first three games of this series, including four helpers in Game 2. He was limited to 64 regular-season games in 2017-18, falling just short of a point-per-game with 63. Naturally, his all-around game goes beyond goals and assists, so this hurts badly for the Bruins, whether they had some experience playing without him or not.

    As of this writing, the two teams are tied up 1-1. Click here for the livestream link.

    This news comes not that long after news surfaced that Bergeron’s once again been named a finalist for the Selke.

    James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.